Our Oakland vs. Michigan prediction starts in Ann Arbor, where No. 16 Michigan opens its national title defense Monday night as a 26.5-point favorite. The total sits at 157.5. Both programs look very different from the teams that met in last season’s opener. That roster churn shapes every angle on this number. Below, we break down the matchup, read the line movement against a lopsided public split, and land on two plays.
Last Updated: November 2, 2026
Oakland vs. Michigan — Time and How to Watch
| Where | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor Michigan |
| When | November 2 – 6:00 PM ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Oakland vs. Michigan Betting Preview
Michigan went 37-3 last season and won the program’s second national championship by beating UConn in April. Almost everything around that title has changed. Dusty May left to coach the Dallas Mavericks, and Mike Boynton Jr., his assistant the past two seasons, takes over. Morez Johnson Jr., Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara all went in the 2026 NBA Draft lottery. In addition, five-star freshman guard Brandon McCoy Jr. tore his ACL and will miss the season.
Still, the core of the backcourt is back. Elliot Cadeau returns at point guard alongside Trey McKenney, and Roddy Gayle Jr. was cleared for a fifth season. Transfers Moustapha Thiam from Cincinnati and J.P. Estrella from Tennessee add size up front. Michigan sits No. 16 in the AP preseason poll and No. 20 in the Coaches Poll. However, the exhibition finale was rough, as Michigan lost 83-66 to Houston, shot 9-of-33 from three and was outrebounded 42-30.
Oakland went 16-16 last season and 12-8 in Horizon League play, then lost 85-84 to Northern Kentucky in the conference tournament’s first round. Greg Kampe, now in his 43rd season, has turned over most of the roster. Nassim Mashhour and Warren Marshall IV are the notable holdovers from last season. The key additions are Belal El Shakery from New Hampshire, Chris Fields Jr. from Campbell and RJ Taylor from Northern Iowa. El Shakery averaged 11.4 points and 8.2 rebounds last season. Oakland’s athletics department reports a 1-2 exhibition run that included a 97-58 loss at Cincinnati.
The style matchup favors offense on both sides. Oakland ranked 43rd nationally in scoring last season at 82.6 points per game. It shot 34.8% from three and 75.0% at the line. Its offensive rating ranked 58th, well ahead of its defense. Michigan was efficient everywhere, ranking ninth in offensive rating and 13th in defensive rating, per Sports-Reference. Michigan also shot 36.8% from deep on 25 attempts per game. The question is how much of that efficiency left with the three big men who were drafted.
This is a non-conference game between a Big Ten power and a Horizon League program. Michigan leads the all-time series 9-1 and won last season’s opener 121-78 at Crisler Center. Last spring’s title run is covered in our UConn vs. Michigan national title game preview.
Oakland vs. Michigan Odds
| Spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland | +26.5 (+100) | O 157.5 (-110) |
| Michigan | -26.5 (-120) | U 157.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of November 2, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAB Odds – Futures – Props
Oakland vs. Michigan — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Oakland | 94% | 6% | Michigan |
See the latest College Basketball Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Oakland vs. Michigan Prediction — Does Last Year’s 43-Point Rout Carry Over?
Start with Oakland’s defense, because it was the weakest part of the program last season. Oakland allowed 81.7 points per game, which ranked 343rd of 365 Division I teams. Its defensive rating ranked 333rd, and a new roster does not automatically fix that. In fact, the early evidence points the other way, with Cincinnati scoring 97 in that exhibition rout. Michigan, meanwhile, returns its title-winning point guard and adds two transfer big men.
The market tells the same story. The spread number has held since it opened with even pricing on both sides. However, the price on Michigan has shortened by 10 cents, while Oakland’s side has grown cheaper. Meanwhile, 94% of spread tickets are on Oakland. When the price shortens toward the side taking only 6% of tickets, that is reverse line movement. It suggests the larger money sits with the favorite. Still, the move has already happened. The current price pushes the break-even rate to 54.5%, so the best of the number is gone.
The case against is real. This is a big number for a team breaking in a new coach and a rebuilt frontcourt. Michigan’s shooting was cold against Houston, and big leads usually bring bench minutes and backdoor points. Oakland also scored 82.6 points per game last season, so it can find late baskets. On balance, though, the defensive gap and the market signal point the same way.
The Pick: Michigan -26.5 (-120)
Oakland vs. Michigan Prediction — What Happens When an 82-Point Offense Visits Crisler?
Oakland played at both ends of high-scoring games last season. It scored 82.6 points per game and allowed 81.7, so its games averaged about 164 combined points. Michigan scored 87.3 points per game on the way to the title, and Oakland’s porous defense is a friendly first test for a retooled offense. Last season’s meeting produced 199 total points, with Michigan scoring 121 of them. Oakland’s shot profile adds volume as well, since it took 664 of its 1,957 field-goal attempts from three last season. In addition, Sports Illustrated’s Michigan site notes the program has scored at least 99 points in each of its last three openers. The total has ticked up half a point since it opened, a modest move in the same direction.
However, the edge here is thinner than on the side. Michigan held opponents to 69.5 points per game last season, and this roster shot poorly from three in its exhibition finale. A long run of bench minutes in a blowout can also slow the second half. Note that this play and the spread both lean on Oakland’s defense, so they are not independent. The current price carries a 52.4% break-even rate, which leaves room for a fair read.
The Pick: Over 157.5 (-110)
Our Final Word on Oakland vs. Michigan
Michigan is replacing far more than most ranked teams, and the opener is the first real look at that rebuild. It is also Boynton’s first game as a head coach since leading Oklahoma State, so there is no recent sideline sample to lean on. Oakland arrives with new faces but the same profile as last season, an offense that scores and a defense that gives it back. That combination drives both plays, so size them with the shared risk in mind.
Michigan -26.5 at -120 is the top play, backed by reverse line movement against 94% of the spread tickets. The Over 157.5 at -110 follows, built on Oakland games averaging about 164 combined points last season.
NCAAB Oakland vs. Michigan FAQ: November 2, 2026
What time does the Oakland vs. Michigan game start?
Oakland vs. Michigan tips off at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, November 2, 2026, at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It is the season opener for both teams and the start of Michigan’s national title defense under first-year head coach Mike Boynton Jr.
What channel is the Oakland vs. Michigan game on?
The Oakland vs. Michigan game airs on Big Ten Network. Tip-off is 6:00 PM ET from Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, where Michigan opens its national title defense against a rebuilt Oakland roster. It is the first game of the 2026-27 season for both programs.
Is Oakland or Michigan ranked?
Michigan is ranked No. 16 in the AP preseason Top 25 and No. 20 in the preseason Coaches Poll. Oakland is unranked in both polls. Michigan enters as the reigning national champion after a 37-3 season, though it lost three NBA lottery picks and its head coach from that team.
What conference are Oakland and Michigan in?
Michigan plays in the Big Ten, and Oakland plays in the Horizon League, so this is a non-conference game. Oakland went 12-8 in Horizon League play last season, while Michigan went 19-1 in the Big Ten and won the regular-season title.
Who won the last meeting between Oakland and Michigan?
Michigan won the last meeting 121-78 at Crisler Center in the 2025-26 season opener on November 3, 2025. Michigan leads the all-time series 9-1, and Monday’s game is the second straight season the two programs have opened against each other in Ann Arbor.
Is Brandon McCoy Jr. playing for Michigan?
No. Brandon McCoy Jr. will not play against Oakland. The five-star freshman guard tore his ACL before the season and is out for the entire 2026-27 campaign. Michigan’s backcourt instead leans on returners Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney and Roddy Gayle Jr.