Last Updated on September 1, 2023 12:30 pm by Alex Becker
Texas Win Total Prediction
The Texas Longhorns were very close to having a good season in 2022. Texas went 8-5 and ended the campaign with a loss in the Alamo Bowl to Washington by a score of 27-20.
Can the Longhorns finally get back to being an elite program and win double-digit regular season games in 2023?
Texas Longhorns Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -135
Under 9.5 +115
2022 Season Recap
Texas lost their five games by an average of 5 points in 2022. All of their losses were one-score games. The Longhorns performed well in multiple scoring metrics. Texas ranked seventh in the nation in points per play margin and finished tenth in the country in yards per point margin. The roster was (and still is) bursting with talent. Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers had a decent season last year that was cut short by injuries. In 10 games, Ewers threw for 2,177 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions while averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt and posting a passer rating of 132.6. Texas running back Bijan Robinson was outstanding in 2022 as he ran for 1,580 yards and 15 touchdowns. Hybrid linebacker DeMarvion Overshown was one of the Longhorns’ better defenders in 2022, as he ranked second on the team in total tackles (95), and sacks (4). Both Robinson and Overshown are off to the NFL as Texas looks to reload for their last season in the Big 12.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: RB Bijan Robinson, LB DeMarvion Overshown, RB Roschon Johnson, DT Keondre Coburn, DE Moro Ojomo, DB Anthony Cook, CB D’Shawn Jamison, QB Hudson Card, WR Brenen Thompson, IOL Junior Angilau
Key Player Additions: S Jalen Catalon, WR AD Mitchell, CB Gavin Holmes, WR Johntay Cook II, DB Mallik Muhammad, OT Payton Kirkland, WR DeAndre Moore Jr., P Ryan Sanborn, QB Arch Manning, RB CJ Baxter
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Despite losing running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown to the NFL Draft, this year’s Texas team should be the most talented that Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian has put together during his time in Austin. Texas didn’t add many players in the transfer portal, but the few they did could make a significant impact in 2023. Former Arkansas safety Jalen Catalon joins Texas this year. Catalon was first-team All-SEC with the Razorbacks in 2020 and recorded 46 total tackles and 2 interceptions in 2021 before missing most of last season due to a shoulder injury that required surgery. The other big addition for the Longhorns was former Georgia wide receiver AD Mitchell. Mitchell only played in 6 games last season, but he caught touchdowns in both of the Bulldogs College Football Playoff wins on their way to a national championship. Mitchell’s frame (6’4” 190 pounds) and pedigree (4-star prospect) could lead to him having a breakout campaign in Austin.
According to On3.com, Texas had the third-best recruiting class for 2023 behind only Georgia and Alabama. The Longhorns added one of the best quarterback prospects of the past 20 years in Arch Manning, who is the nephew of former NFL quarterbacks Peyton and Eli Manning. Texas also brought in five-star prospects in linebacker Anthony Hill, running back CJ Baxter Jr., and wide receiver Johntay Cook II. Of those three, Cook should see the most playing time, and he simply adds to an already stellar Texas wide receiving corps. In Steve Sarkisian’s third season, he appears to have all his ducks in a row for Texas to finally be truly “back” in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Passing game coordinator/wide receivers coach Brennan Marion, special assistant to the head coach Gary Patterson
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Passing game coordinator/wide receivers coach Chris Jackson, special assistant to the head coach Paul Chryst, special assistant to the head coach Joe DeCamillis
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian largely kept his staff intact from last season. The most significant on-field coaching loss was passing game coordinator/wide receivers coach Brennan Marion, who left to become the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at UNLV. He’ll be replaced by new passing game coordinator/wide receivers coach Chris Jackson. Jackson played five years in the NFL and served as an NFL coach for five seasons. He served as the wide receivers coach for the Chicago Bears in 2020 and 2021 and held the same position with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022. Jackson’s NFL experience should translate down to the college level. Texas has multiple experienced wide receivers on their squad in junior Xavier Worthy and redshirt senior Jordan Whittington, and they along with Jackson should help to elevate the younger players in that unit for 2023.
Former TCU head coach Gary Patterson was the special assistant to the head coach for Texas last season, and he was credited with improving the Longhorns’ defense in 2022. He has since retired, but he’s been replaced by former Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst and former NFL special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis. Chryst was one of the better offensive minds in college football the past few years, so he should help the team on that side of the ball. DeCamillis has two Super Bowl wins on his resume as he was the special teams coordinator for the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50 and the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI. His depth of knowledge and Texas’ elite roster talent should lead to a noticeable bump in their special teams’ performance in 2023.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
Texas has the 10th-toughest schedule in the nation according to College Football News, but I believe they will be good enough to conquer it. Let’s break the Longhorns schedule down into quadrants. In the first four games of the season, Texas plays at home against Rice, on the road against Alabama, at home against Wyoming, and on the road against Baylor. Texas only lost to Alabama by 1 point last season, and that was mainly because starting quarterback Quinn Ewers got hurt. But let’s say Texas finishes the first four games 3-1, although they have a real shot at beating Alabama. Next Texas will face Kansas at home, Oklahoma in Dallas, Houston on the road, and BYU at home. I like Texas to win all of those games. That puts them at 7-1. The Longhorns season will end the year by hosting Kansas State, going to TCU, going to Iowa State, and hosting Texas Tech. I’d be willing to concede that Texas will lose one of those final four games, likely at home against Kansas State or on the road against TCU. That puts the Longhorns at 10-2 for the regular season, which would cash the over. Texas has long had the recruiting base and donor support to be an elite program. They were the cream of the crop in the college football world from 2000 to 2009. It was only a matter of time before they regained their national standing and rose to prominence once again. I think it will happen this year in 2023. Texas is back, and I’m on the over of 9.5 regular season wins for the Longhorns this season.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: TEXAS LONGHORNS OVER 9.5 WINS -135