The 2025 NBA Finals heads back to OKC for a swing game matchup between the Pacers and Thunder. With Oklahoma City laying 9.5 points and the total sitting at 225, what’s the smart bet for tonight’s Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 matchup at 8:30 p.m. ET?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:30 p.m. ET, Monday, June 16, 2025
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, IN
TV: ABC
Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Thunder are 9.5-point home favorites versus the Pacers. The total, meanwhile, sits at 225 points.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Public Betting: Bettors Once Again Take Points
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 68% of public bettors are currently backing the Pacers when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Game Context
The series is tied 2–2, meaning Game 5 is the swing game—winner takes a 3–2 lead, a position that historically leads to a championship 23 out of 31 times .
Tonight’s tilt takes place in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder boast a dominant 44‑8 home record this season (including playoffs).
The Thunder enter as roughly 9.5-point favorites, with the O/U at 223.5 total points.
Momentum & Recent Results
The Thunder rebounded to win Game 4, a 111–104 comeback that featured a decisive 31‑17 fourth quarter, strong rebounding (+10) and superb free‑throw shooting (34/38). Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander scored 35.
The Pacers have thrived on the road—7‑3 down the stretch in this postseason—and are seeking their eighth road win, tying a single‑postseason record.
Key X‑Factors
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander (MVP): Averaging ~33 PPG in the Finals, including 35 in Game 4.
Jalen Williams: Posted 27 points in Game 4, his scoring and drive needed again tonight.
Depth & defensive identity: Role players historically step up at home; Thunder rank #1 in playoff home-court performance.
Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton: Elite playmaking—averaging ~18.6 PPG, 9.3 APG in playoffs, and delivered clutch shots in Game 1 & 3.
Pascal Siakam: Balanced inside-out scoring with ~20 PPG and impact across stats.
Rick Carlisle’s coaching: Known for orchestrating upsets (e.g. 2011 Mavericks), using zone defense and pressing schemes.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 NBA Prediction:
Can Haliburton control tempo and keep Indiana in the game through Oklahoma’s early burst?
Will SGA & Williams dominate early, forcing Pacers into reactive mode?
Can Indiana’s bench impact like in Games 1 & 3, especially through three-point efficiency?
Expect a high-intensity, defensively focused showdown. Thunder’s home-court energy will be a key edge; Pacers will rely on shooting and Haliburton’s orchestration to hang close.
Home-court advantage and in-game adjustments tilt the scales toward the Thunder—expect a win at home and a step toward their first NBA title since 2012. But Carlisle’s system ensures Indiana stays within striking distance.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Betting Prediction: INDIANA PACERS +9.5