Spartan
Seattle -3
First of all let me come right out and say I don't begin to suggest to spend 3 hours of your life you'll never get back watching this game. Likely going to be similar to watching Moe & Curly slap each other around to determine who is the toughest stooge. I feel like we have to take the Seahawks here at home, if they can handle the Ravens at home then surely the Redskins should go down here. Well, that's what I am thinking guys but we all know it's not always quite that easy in the NFL don't we? Here we have a Washington club that is coming off a tough, hard fought and emotional loss to their rivals the Cowboys and now traveling out west to meet Seattle. Hard to envision them getting real jacked up for this one. My regular clients know I'm no stat or trend geek but I do my due diligence and check numbers out. I did see that Seattle is an impressive 14-4 against the number when taking the field at home in the role of favorite. The bottom line is I feel the price is reasonable guys, Seattle is the right side here. Free selection on the, (gulp) Seattle Seahawks laying the 3.
James Patrick Sports
Texans vs. Jaguars
The Houston Texans begin life with a new quarterback and will try for their first five-game winning streak in team history when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Quarterback Matt Schaub is out for the season with a foot injury and Houston will turn to Matt Leinart, who hasn’t started since 2009 and hasn’t started consecutive games since 2007. Leinart will be aided by the return of All-Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson, who missed the last six games with a hamstring injury, and a defense at or near the top of the NFL in every major statistical category. The Texans had last week off after their (37-9) rout at Tampa Bay on Nov. 13. Jacksonville lost (14-10) at Cleveland last week and is four games behind Houston in the AFC South. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary Selection is on Houston Texans.
JIM FEIST
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS TENNESSEE TITANS
PLAY: TENNESSEE TITANS
Reason: Second straight road game for Tampa, after a trip to frigid Green Bay (35-26 defeat). Tampa Bay (4-6 SU/4-6 ATS) QB Josh Freeman (11 TDs, 15 INTs) seems to be regressing after a good 2010. The young offense is struggling, while the secondary is 27th allowing 275 yards passing per contest. They put a lot of money into this offensive line but there is no balance, with the ground game ranked 22nd with 100 yards rushing per contest. Tampa Bay allowed 287 yards passing on Sunday in a 35-26 loss at Green Bay, despite the offense getting 455 yards. Freeman had 342 yards passing, but 2 picks. They were within 21-19 in the fourth but the defense let them down. They had a deflating loss to rival New Orleans, 27-16, giving up 453 yards (195 rushing). They looked even worse in a 37-9 home loss to the Texans, allowing 420 yards (185 rushing). Freeman completed 15 of 35 passes for 170 yards, 3 picks and was sacked 4 times. The Texans limited LeGarrette Blount to 34 yards rushing on 10 attempts. The Bucs will be on the road six times in the final nine weeks of the regular season. They also had a 48-3 loss at San Francisco with 3 turnovers while allowing 418 yards, so this young defense has a long way to go. The defense lost talented young DT Gerald McCoy (out for the year) after tearing his right biceps. So they brought in DT Fat Albert Haynesworth last week, released by the Patriots. New Orleans rushed for 195 yards, averaging 7 yards per carry. They will lean more on rookie defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers, but the Lions had 431 yards (305 passing) and Minnesota had 377 yards (186 rushing). In 10 games the defense has just 17 sacks. Tampa Bay posted only 26 sacks last season, prompting the Bucs to choose Clayborn and Bowers with their first two draft picks. The Buccaneers are 19-13-1 under the total in their last 32 games overall. The Buccaneers are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 games on grass. The under is 16-9 in the Buccaneers last 25 vs. a team with a winning record. The Titans (5-5 SU/4-5-1 ATS) have a new look with QB Matt Hasselbeck (15 TDs, 6 INTs) and new coach Mike Munchak. RB Chris Johnson has been awful since signing the big contract, as they are last in rushing in the NFL, 12th in passing yards (260 pg) so Hasselbeck is carrying the offense. But there are key injuries: Hasselbeck went out with a sprained elbow Sunday, a 23-17 loss at Atlanta. Rookie QB Jake Locker nearly led an improbable comeback, throwing for 140 yards and 2 TDs, no picks. The defense allowed 432 yards. They’ve already lost star WR Kenny Britt (knee) for the season, a huge blow. The Titans had a tough home loss to the Bengals three weeks ago, 24-17, blowing a 17-3 halftime lead. Although the run game is struggling, Munchak said he has no plans to make changes to the offensive line. RB Johnson had his first impact game of the season two weeks ago with 130 yards in a 30-3 win at Carolina. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray has been decent at installing game plans and they did a terrific job taking away Carolina’s air attack.Smal;number to lay here at home with the Titans and with a road-weary Bucs club, I need little more than a win to cover the spread with the Titans.
John Ryan
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
5* graded play on Jacksonville as they host Houston set to start at 1:00 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by six or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 28-8 ATS mark for 78% winners since 1983. Play against road teams that are excellent rushing team averaging 150 or more rushing yards per game and after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games. Here is a second system that has produced a 110-63 ATS mark for 64% winners since 1983. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers against opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Further supporting this graded play are game situations that Del Rio is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after a 2 game road trip as the coach of Jax; 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13. Matt Schaub is out for Houston and this turns the Texans offense into a one dimensional attack with Leinart under center. They are forced to run the ball and establish the run and I like how JAX matches up in stopping the Houston rushing attack. JAX may have a poor record, but Del Rio is a master motivator and always has his team playing hard and completely focused. This is an opportunity for them to have an impact on the playoffs by sending Houston home with a loss. Take the Jaguars.
MTi Sports
Buffalo Bills at NY Jets
Play: Buffalo Bills
The Bills have allowed a lot of points recently, but they are 10-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) as a road dog when they have had a positive DPA in each of their last three games. Earlier this season, the Jets beat the Bills as a small dog in Buffalo. The Jets have not been a good investment when they opponent is seeking revenge for a loss as a favorite. NY is 0-9 ATS (-11.7 ppg) vs a team they beat as a dog in their first match-up. finally, the Jets are 0-8 ATS (-6.8 ppg) as a favorite after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. Grab the big number.
Vegas Experts
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
This is a flat spot for the Bengals as they drop in class after back to back division losses to the Steelers and Ravens to meet other AFC North foe Cleveland. While the Browns have not been very successful in division road games of late, their last three losses to AFC North teams away from home have come by a total of nine points. They have revenge for a Week 1 loss at home. Cincinnati is an awful 1-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Play on: Cleveland
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Seattle Seahawks -3
The Redskins are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. They got up for rival Dallas last Sunday but lost a heartbreaker in OT. It has already been a mentally draining season for the Skins, and I believe they'll have a tough time recovering from last week's blow. Prior to taking the Cowboys down to the wire, Washington had lost 5 straight by 7 points or more. The defending NFC West champs have shown some life with back-to-back victories. One of those was an impressive 22-17 upset win at home over a very good Baltimore team. Seattle has actually been one of the best investments in the NFL following the first 2 weeks of the season, going 6-1-1 ATS. The Seahawks have consistently been a solid investment at home in recent years. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. It's also worth noting that the home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series. We'll take the home team
Charlie Scott
Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: Arizona Cardinals +2.5
The Cards have proven they can go back East and Win, and playing in a Dome should help. The Rams are 2-8 S/U have a ton of injuries especially on the OL. The Rams have only been favored once this season and that was in a 7-24 loss last week to Seattle.
Craig Trapp
Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams
Play: St. Louis Rams -1
Hard to believe that Rams are favored over anyone but that just tells you how bad the Cards have been. Cards can't run or pass the ball and the defense has always been bad. Rams are getting healthy and at home they are a solid play. 4 star winner as Rams win easy
Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Minnesota Vikings +9.5
What we want to do in this game is basically play against Atlanta. Teams in their 3rd straight home game with no rest in between are 2-15 ats as a home favorite of -7.5 or more if the total is 45 or less. The Vikings are a solid 9-0 ats off back to back straight up and ats vs a winning team and has looked rejuvenated with Christian Ponder at Quarter back. Atlanta hasn't been the dominant home team this year they were last season and this appears to be too many points and may get up to 10 by game time. With the system and the angle we will back the Vikings here today.
Sean Murphy
Bears @ Raiders
Pick: Under 41.5
Both of these teams have been operating at a high level offensively in recent weeks, with the 'over' going a combined 5-1 in their last six games combined.
I won't be surprised if we see a different story unfold this week, however.
The Bears are forced to turn to Caleb Hanie at quarterback after Jay Cutler suffered a thumb injury last Sunday. No surprise if he's asked to only manage the game against an aggressive Raiders defense this week. We can expect to see a heavy dose of Matt Forte and the Bears ground game, keeping the clock moving.
Keep in mind, Chicago is averaging just 20 points per game on the road this season.
The Raiders offense has done a nice job over the last few weeks, putting up 75 points, but they'll obviously be taking a step up in class against the Bears defense this week. While Carson Palmer is coming along nicely in the offense, he'll be working with a banged-up receiving corps this week, with Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore nursing injuries, and Jacoby Ford sidelined. That's not to mention the fact that Darren McFadden will miss his fourth straight game.
Note that the 'under' is 45-19-2 in the Bears last 66 games when listed as a road underdog and 7-3-1 in the Raiders last 11 games as a home favorite. Expect a bruising battle between these two storied franchises on Sunday. Take the under.
Black Widow
1* Patriots/Eagles Over 50
The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles should have no problem combining to score more than 50 points Sunday. Odds makers have over-adjusted, not setting this total high enough due to a pair of low-scoring games from both teams last week. New England beat Kansas City 34-3, and Philly beat New York 17-10. Because of those results, we are seeing excellent value with this OVER Sunday. The Patriots rank 2nd in the league in total offense at 426.7 yards/game, while the Eagles rank 3rd in total offense at 415.6 yards/game. Philly is likely to be without Michael Vick once again, but they still managed 391 total yards against the Giants last week with Vince Young as their starting quarterback. Young completed 23 of 36 passes for 258 yards with two touchdowns. Though he threw three interceptions, he's not that much of a downgrade. Young should be very successful Sunday against a New England defense that ranks last in the league in total defense at 404.2 yards/game. There's no question the Patriots are going to score plenty of points behind Tom Brady and company. New England is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 21-8 in Patriots last 29 games overall. The OVER is 8-1 in Eagles last 9 games as a home underdog. The OVER is 38-18-1 in Eagles last 57 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the OVER 50 points here.
Larry Ness
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were not considered a team to be reckoned with this year when they opened the season in Cleveland back on Week 1. Carson Palmer had refused to report to camp after the lockout and while the Bengals obviously liked rookie QB Andy Dalton (he was drafted in the 2nd round with the 35th overall pick), few thought he was ready for primetime with a shortened preseason and no real training camp. Dalton actually didn’t make it past the the half in that Week 1 game, getting KO’d on the final play of the half. However, the Bengals rallied to win the game on two, fourth-quarter TDs. Since then, the Bengals opened 6-2 to take a surprising lead in the AFC North, a division also occupied by the Steelers and Ravens. Speaking of those teams, the Bengals have lost to that pair the last two Sundays. First, the Steelers won 24-17 in Cincinnati and then the Bengals lost 31-24 at Baltimore. While the back-to-back losses drop the the 6-4 Bengals behind both teams (Ravens are 8-3 and the Steelers 7-3), one couldn’t help but be impressed with the way Cincy hung in there. In each game, the Bengals had real opportunities to tie the game late and even though Dalton has thrown FIVE interceptions in the two games, let’s note that he was facing some pretty fair defenses in the Steelers and Ravens. Cincy returns home to host the Browns for Week 12 and while the 4-6 Browns have done a nice job defensively in 2011, they are among the worst offenses in the league in most key categories. Cleveland ranks 29th in total yards, 29th in rushing and 24th in passing. The Cincy defense ranks 6th overall in yards allowed (311.1 YPG) and is tied for eighth in points allowed (19.5 PPG). Cleveland did manage to end a season-high three-game losing streak last Sunday by beating Jacksonville 14-10 but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Browns scored two TDs in a game for for the first time in FIVE weeks and only escaped with a win by holding the Jaguars at the one-yard line on the game's final two plays. Meanwhile, Cincinnati was out-gaining the Ravens in Baltimore last Sunday, 483-to-373, as Dalton finished with a career-best 373 yards. He also recorded his 15th TD pass, joining Peyton Manning and Dan Marino as the only rookies to accomplish that feat in 10 games since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. I think it’s fair to say that Dalton over Colt McCoy in this one gives the Bengals a HUGE edge at the QB position. What’s more, Cincinnati's season-opening 27-17 win in Cleveland on 9/11 was its 11th in the last 14 matchups with the Browns. The Bengals have won SIX of the last seven meetings with the Browns in a stadium named after the former Cleveland owner, Paul Brown Stadium. The pointspread scares me some but not enough to NOT make a play on the Bengals.
Doug Upstone
Tampa Bay
If you like the letter "T" you are going to love this Sunday matchup with Tampa Bay at Tennessee. The Buccaneers have been terrible in losing four in a row and playing unsightly defense. However, this could work in their favor today. Play On road teams like Tampa Bay, being outscored by opponents by seven or more points a game, after allowing 25 points or more in three straight contests. (22-5 ATS L5Y)
EZWINNERS
Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5
This might be the most popular public play on the board this week, but for good reason. The Chiefs are coming off of a horrible showing on Monday night against New England and get the rested Steelers who are coming off of a bye week. Kansas City quarterback Tyler Palko was horrible making his first career start and I expect him and the Chiefs to struggle against the Steelers defense. The Chiefs are scoring touchdowns at a remarkably inept rate recently and I don't expect it to get any better in this game. Pittsburgh's starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be playing with a broken thumb, so expect the Steelers to rely heavily on the ground game with Rashard Mendenhall against a Kansas City defense that has allowed 153 rushing yards per game over their last five games. Lay the points.