Pocono 400 Betting News and Notes

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Pocono 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Wow, Martin Truex Jr., that was an impressive Sunday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway. I've never seen such a dominating performance there probably because it's never happened. The guy led 392 of the 400 laps and 588 of the 600 miles, both track records.

That is definitely strong stuff and we should have all seen if coming following his outstanding final practices Saturday. He had also led the most laps in the two previous 1.5-mile tracks at Texas and Kansas. It was his first win since last June when he led a race-high 97 laps en route to his first Pocono victory.

And that's how the stage is set this week as the tour heads to Pocono Raceway for Sunday's Axalta 400, the 14th race of the season. Can Truex keep his roll going? He finally captured victory that had eluded him several times this season, but it's in those failures to close out wins that made several bettors skeptical of him, despite the great practices, prior the Coca-Cola 600.

Truex has the benefit of having great equipment from Joe Gibbs Racing as an affiliate. When including Truex into the mix, Gibbs has now won seven of the past eight races on the schedule and eight of 13 overall. It's not hard to understand why each of the five cars will be 8-to-1 or less to win Sunday.

But what about Pocono Raceway's trick 2.5-mile triangle? The last race run there in August was won by a Gibbs driver as well with Matt Kenseth, but in the six previous races, it was all Chevrolets, including Truex's win last June when he drove a Chevrolet using Richard Childress Racing equipment.

Despite all the JGR Toyotas currently dominating, I think there is enough of a difference with the uniqueness of the track that we'll have either a Ford or Chevrolet in the winners circle this week. Before we get to them, let's take a look at what the Gibbs gang has done at Pocono.

- Prior to Kenseth's Pocono win last fall, he had never won there in 32 starts. He only had three other top-fives and has averaged a 15th-place finish.

- Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with four Pocono wins, but the last one came in 2010. He's always been good at Pocono just because he gets in and out of the flat turn 3 the best. It suits his flat track style where he's typically been his best, places like Martinsville and Richmond. His first two wins came in a season sweep as a rookie in 2006.

- Carl Edwards is a two-time winner, but his last victory back-flip there came in 2008 while driving a Roush Fenway Racing Ford.

- The surprising piece of Pocono history is that Kyle Busch has never won there, one of only two tracks on the Cup schedule he's never won at. He hasn't had a top-five there since 2011 and in his championship season last year he finished ninth in June and 21st in August. Last fall he ran out of gas while leading with a lap to go.

So yes, JGR is currently the hottest thing going in NASCAR right now, but there may be an opportunity with the unique track that has three differing banked turns to find a few drivers elsewhere at nice prices to win. It's a dilemma with betting against JGR because you know they have the low downforce package figured out best and you know they'll be fast again Sunday, but how about a couple other candidates like the Chevy banner with Hendrick or Stewart Haas Racing or a Team Penske Ford?

If we look back at the past four Pocono race covering the past two seasons, you'll see that Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a 4.25 average finish with two wins. After that in the last four races, it's Kyle Larson (9th-place average), Greg Biffle (9.5), Jamie McMurray (9.75), and Brad Keselowski (11th). The now retired Jeff Gordon had a 7.75 average and rookie Chase Elliott gets that sweet ride. That's the top-six performers and none of them are driving Toyotas.

The driver that has done the best over the long haul has been Jimmie Johnson with three wins and a 9.5 average finish in 28 starts. His last win came in 2013, but he's been sixth or better in eight of his past 12 starts, including third and sixth last season.

The one like the most to unseat JGR this week is Joey Logano, who won there in 2012. He led a race-high 97 laps last fall, but ran out of gas with two laps to go and settled for 20th. He had finished third and fourth in his previous two races there. He's starving for his first win of the season after leading the series in that category last season with six wins.

Look for teammate Brad Keselowski also to fare well Sunday. He won in 2011 and has been runner-up twice in the last four starts there.

Maybe it's just hoping some other team wins, but there's good value if deciding to go against the JGR train this week.

That's my plan this week.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #22 Joey Logano (10/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
3) #4 Kevin Harvick (8/1)
4) #24 Chase Elliott (18/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (8/1)

NASCAR betting odds for drivers to win the Axalta 400 at Pocono Raceway
By Greg Engle
Examiner.com

NASCAR heads to Pennsylvania this week and the 2.5 Pocono Raceway, also known as the Tricky Triangle. That’s because there is no fourth turn here; the speedway also features the longest front straight in NASCAR. There are high speeds here, but the lack of banking in the three corners calls for better handling than at the superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega and requires a different driving style as well.

Here are our favorites for Sunday’s fourteenth race of the year for your betting or fantasy racing leagues. Driver Ratings are compiled from 2005-2015 races (22 total) among active drivers at Pocono Raceway. The Driver Rating is a number based on a formula developed by NASCAR which combines "loop data" elements such as average running position, average speed under green, number of fastest laps, and other stats. There is a maximum of 150 points that a driver can earn for each race. The odds are current as of Wednesday.

Martin Truex Jr. (9-2) absolutely dominated last week at Charlotte. He sit all sorts of records including, most laps led ever at Charlotte and the most miles led in the history of NASCAR. After coming up short on several occasions this season, Truex found his redemption last week. He will look to continue that momentum to Pocono and while his driver rating, 85.0, is outside the top 10, he should be hard to beat Sunday.

Matt Kenseth (10-1) went to victory lane here last August. He also has a driver rating outside the top 10, 88.7, but if he carries the notes he had here last summer, and they still apply, Kenseth could be near the top of the heap late Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson (7-1) was third in this race last year and has the second highest driver rating among the field, 106.9. He has three wins here and could be a threat to add a fourth here Sunday.

Kevin Harvick (6-1) was second here last year but has never won at Pocono. He does have the 9th highest driver rating in the field, 91.8, and based on his performance last season and the strength he has shown this season, could be in line to visit victory lane at Pocono Raceway for the first time Sunday.

Kurt Busch (12-1) has the third highest driver rating at Pocono, 105.7, and two wins. He was fifth in this race last year and seems to have the driving style needed to get around the Triangle. Busch could surprise Sunday.

OTHERS: After a couple of weeks of struggles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18-1) could be ready to stage a comeback this week. He has two wins at Pocono and the seventh highest driver rating in the field, 93.2. Kyle Larson (30-1) is this week’s long shot. He has the fifth highest driver rating in the field, 95.1, and has looked strong at times this season. This could be the week Larson scores his first Sprint Cup series win.

NASCAR at Pocono Betting Odds and Driver Previews
ByMicah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

The 14th race of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season takes us to Pocono Raceway's 2.5-mile 'Tricky Triangle' where each of the three turns get progressively flatter. The uniqueness of the track could be just what the rest of the series needs as a change-up after watching a Joe Gibbs Racing powered Toyota win seven of the past eight races on the schedule and eight of 13 overall.

The 14th race of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season takes us to Pocono Raceway's 2.5-mile "Tricky Triangle," where each of the three turns get progressively flatter. The uniqueness of the track could be just what the rest of the series needs as a change-up after watching a Joe Gibbs Racing powered Toyota win seven of the past eight races on the schedule and eight of 13 overall.

However, JGR won the fall race last season with Matt Kenseth and last week's winner Martin Truex Jr. won the spring race while driving a Chevrolet powered by Richard Childress Racing. Prior to Kenseth's win, a Chevrolet had won six straight at Pocono.

Let's take a look at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's odds to win Sunday's Axalta 400 and how each driver stacks up:

Martin TRUEX JR 9/2 - Between thoroughly dominating the Coca-Cola 600, leading 588 of the 600 miles, and crushing this race at Pocono last season, he comes in as the big favorite to repeat. It's hard to argue with the price because he's led a series-high 809 laps this season (611 in the last three).

Last June he led 65 of the final 66 laps and a race-high 97 of the 160. Get out front and stay out front is usually the theme at Pocono where there isn't much passing (only six laps leaders last June) and that's what Truex Jr. has been doing all season. The main thing we can look at as a reason why he won't win this week is that he's blown more races than won over his career. It's hard to believe Sunday's win was only the fourth of his career (382 starts).

Kevin HARVICK 6/1 - He's never won at Pocono in 30 starts and has led only 52 laps, but did finish second in this race last year and he was also second in the fall of 2014. He should be considered a strong candidate to slow the JGR win parties.

Jimmie JOHNSON 7/1 - Another guy in a bow-tie out to slow JGR and he's looking for his fourth Pocono win. His last came in 2014 during Chevrolet's six race win streak. He has a series leading 738 laps led over his career and his 9.5 average finish is best among all active drivers with at least five starts.

Kyle BUSCH 8/1 - Pocono is one of two tracks on the Cup schedule he's never won at. The other is Charlotte where he finished 33rd last week. He had his first win in sight in August and ran out of fuel with a lap to go. Only four top-fives in 24 starts, and none since 2011.

Joey LOGANO 8/1 - Won this race in 2012 and was fourth last June. In August's race, he led a race-high 97 laps and was leading with three laps to go until running out of fuel. Among all the Fords and Chevrolets trying to stop the JGR freight train, he might be the best candidate.

Denny HAMILN 8/1 - In June of 2006, the Heat were on the verge of winning the NBA title, Italy was beginning their run as World Cup champs in Germany and Hamlin was a rookie winning at Pocono. He would go on to win the fall race too, and then another in 2009 and 2010.

His four wins are the most in the series, but he hasn't won in his past 11 starts and has just three top-fives since winning. He gets around the flat turn 3 better than most and its been his edge -— think Martinsville and Richmond where he's had great success as well. He gets pumped for this track and bettors love that when wagering.

Matt KENSETH 10/1 - In his 32nd career start at Pocono last fall, he won for the first time as the trophy fell beautifully into his hands. He outlasted three other drivers who ran out of fuel in the final laps. Is back-to-back wins really in the cards for him? Was last years win just pure luck? He does have JGR power, but his crew chief Jason Ratlciff believes how the track runs in 2016 will be a quite different from last year.

“I think with this year’s new aero package, it will be a big change at Pocono this weekend versus what we had last year," said Ratcliff. "The track is so fast, but at the same time the frontstretch is so long that you need to use a fair amount of brake there getting into Turn 1, but with the reduction in downforce, that probably has decreased. We also have a different tire this weekend than we had last year, so there’s enough differences that I would anticipate it to be substantially different from 2015."

Carl EDWARDS 10/1 - Another JGR driver with good history at Pocono, but his two wins came while driving for Jack Roush, the last coming in 2008. His last top-five came in 2010.

Brad KESELOWSKI 10/1 - His only win came in 2011, but he's come close lately with second-place finishes in two of the past four events, including last fall.

Kurt BUSCH 12/1 - He has a series-best 11 top-10 finishes, but is still looking for first win of 2016. He's won at Pocono twice and been runner-up three times and has identified where he needs to be fastest around track to be successful.

“I think it’s a fun track as far as how unique it is with the three corners being different," he said. "And the fact that your setup really can’t be dialed in for all three corners, you have to give and take. Some years it seems like turn one is tough, some years turn three ends up being a tough corner, but I always focus on the tunnel turn. I always try to get through turn two as quickly as I can because, it seems like, the years I’ve won, that’s where I’ve had the best car.”

Dale EARNHARDT JR 18/1 - Swept the 2014 season for his first wins in 30 career starts. Last season he was 11th in June and fourth in August. He's on a run of finishing in the top-five in five of his last six starts.

Chase ELLIOTT 20/1 - Only two drivers have more top-10 finishes this season than the rookie and he's been in the top-five in four of his last seven starts. This will be his Cup debut at Pocono, but he did win an ARCA race there in 2013. Jeff Gordon finished third last fall driving the No. 24.

Kyle LARSON 30/1 - Leads all active drivers with a 9th-place average finish in four starts. His best was fifth in his 2014 debut on the track and his worst was 12th last fall.

Kasey KAHNE 40/1 - Won in 2008 and then again in 2013. He's got an 18th-place average finish in 24 starts.

Austin DILLON 40/1 - Has a 16th-place average finish four starts with a career-best 13th last fall.

Tony STEWART 60/1 - A two-time winner with a 12th-place average finish in 34 starts. Teammates Harvick and Busch should have cars set-up great, and Stewart always runs well here. A top-10 finish might be in store for him.

Ryan NEWMAN 80/1 - Won in 2003 and has averaged a solid 12.7 finish over 28 starts. He'll be using the Fontana chassis teammate Paul Menard used to finish 15th.

Greg BIFFLE 100/1 - Won in 2010 and has been fifth in two of the past three events making the triangle one of his better tracks (9.5 average over past four) during the Roush Fenway Racing decline. But things are starting to look better for him with a season-best 11th last week at Charlotte.

Ryan BLANEY 100/1 - This will be his first Cup race at Pocono, but he does have experience winning a Craftsman Truck Series race in 2013 in his first look at the track.

“It was pretty neat winning at a track when you’ve never been there," he said. "There was a lot of hard work put into that race. I don’t think it’s out of the question to make it happen again this weekend. I like Pocono. All three corners are different so you have to make compromises to be good in some areas.” At 100-to-1 odds, it might be worth a poke despite JGR edge. That's the odds that were posted on Alexander Rossi to win the Indy 500.

Jamie McMURRAY 100/1 - His 9.75 average finish over the past four Pocono races is fifth best among all drivers. No top-fives in 26 career starts with a 19.1 average.

Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1 - He had a rough time of it last season finishing 42nd in June and 41st in the fall. His best finish was 15th in 2014.

Paul MENARD 200/1 - in 18 starts, he's average a 22.9 finish; finished 11th last fall.

Trevor BAYNE 300/1 - Finished 24th in his Cup debut last June and 40th in August.

AJ ALLMENDINGER 300/1 - This should be a track that appeals to his strengths as a driver since it's called the Superspeedway that drives like a road course. He had a career-best seventh-place last fall.

Aric ALMIROLA 300/1 - In eight starts, his best has been 18th — twice.

Clint BOWYER 300/1 - In 20 starts, he's averaged a 14.3 finish. He was eighth last fall.

Danica PATRICK 500/1 - Her 16th-place finish last fall was a career-best and lowered her career average on the track to 30.7.

Casey MEARS 500/1 - One top-five finish in 26 career starts. Finished 16th in this race last year.

Chris BUESCHER 1000/1 - Makes his Cup debut on track, but did have four top-five finishes driving in the ARCA series.

FIELD 500/1 - Forget this terrible bet. It's never hit at Pocono and with speed being everything on long straights, it'll be hard for any driver not affiliated with the power teams of NASCAR to win. Even with rain as possibility, which it always is. Try Logano, Keselowski, Kurt Busch or Elliott instead.

Pocono Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin .
Racingone.com

To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Jeff Wackerlin takes a look at some notes and statistics for Sunday's Axalta "We Paint Winners" 400 at Pocono Raceway.

Who's HOT at Pocono

• Martin Truex Jr. led 97 laps en route to the win in this event last year.
• Kevin Harvick, who led 39 laps in this event last year, has finished second in two of the last three races.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. leads all drivers with an 8.0 average finish in the last 10 races, including wins in both races in 2014.
• Three-time winner Jimmie Johnson has led the most laps (221) in the last 10 races.
• Joey Logano has finished in the top five in two of his last three stars and led 97 laps last August before running out of fuel with three laps to go.
• Kurt Busch, a two-time winner, has finished in the top five in three of the last five races.
• Denny Hamlin (four-time winner) and Jamie McMurray each have finished in the top 10 three of the last four races.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Pocono

• Kyle Busch, who finished ninth in this event, ran out of fuel on the final lap last August while leading.
• Matt Kenseth, the latest winner at Pocono, posted a 3.5 average finish in the two races last season.
• Brad Keselowski, winner of the 2011 August race, has finished second in two of the last four Pocono Races. He also participated in the Goodyear Tire test in April.
• Kyle Larson, who participated in the Goodyear Tire test, has posted a 9.0 average finish in four Pocono starts.
• An accident in this event last year race snapped Ryan Newman's streak of five consecutive finishes of eighth or better at Pocono. He also participated in the Goodyear Tire test.
• Carl Edwards, who has a 12.5 average finish in two Pocono starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, has two wins and has led 653 laps with the lower-downforce package this season.
• Chase Elliott is tied for the sixth best average finish (11.0) in the 11 races with the lower-downforce package.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Robbie Mays: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Kurt Busch

Driver Notes - Ordered by Top 20 in Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Pocono

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top five in five of his last six Pocono starts, including winning both events in 2014. This season, Earnhardt ranks fifth in average finish (10.7) in the 11 races contested with the lower-downforce package.

Kyle Larson has finished 12th or better in his four Pocono starts with top-10 finishes in his two starts in the June race. In April, Larson participated in the Goodyear Tire test at Pocono. In his last two starts of the season, Larson has posted a 7.5 average finish and led 85 laps at Dover International Speedway.

Greg Biffle has finished in the top 10 in four of his last six starts at Pocono. Biffle's crew chief Brian Pattie was placed on probation for two races starting this weekend after an infraction at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Brad Keselowski is coming off his fourth top five at Pocono, which includes a win in the 2011 August race. This season, Brad Keselowski has one win and is tied for sixth with Chase Elliott in average finish (11.0) in the 11 races contested with the lower-downforce package. He participated in the Goodyear Tire test at Pocono in April.

Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four races at Pocono.

Clint Bowyer has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three races at Pocono. This season, Bowyer has two top-10 finishes with HScott Motorsports (Bristol and Talladega).

Kurt Busch won the pole and finished fifth in this event last year at Pocono. The finish marked his second top five in four track starts with Stewart Haas Racing. This weekend, Busch will be without his crew chief Tony Gibson, who was suspended one race for an infraction at Charlotte. This season, Busch ranks second in average finish (8.9) in the 11 races with the lower-downforce package.

Jimmie Johnson scored his last of three Pocono wins in the 2013 June race. He finished third in this event last season for his third top 10 in the last four races. This season, Johnson has scored two wins and ranks third in average finish (9.1) in the 11 races contested with the lower-downforce package.

Joey Logano finished fourth in this event last year for his fourth top 10 in six Pocono starts with Team Penske. Last August, Logano dominated the Pocono race, leading 97 of the 160 laps before running out of fuel while leading with just three laps to go. This season, Logano ranks ninth in average finish (12.5) in the 11 races contested with the lower-downforce package.

Martin Truex Jr. dominated this event last year, leading 97 laps en route to the win. The victory was his second top 10 in four track starts with Furniture Row Racing. Truex is coming off his first win of the season at Charlotte Motor Speedway and has led a series high 807 laps with the lower-downforce package. Truex participated in the Goodyear Tire test at Pocono in April.

Kevin Harvick has a streak of two consecutive runner-up finishes at Pocono snapped last August when an engine issue relegated him to a 42nd-place finish. This season, Harvick leads all drivers with a 6.7 average finish in the 11 races contested with the lower-downforce package. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 841) that he led 139 laps en route to the win at Phoenix International Raceway earlier this season.

Austin Dillon is coming off his best finish, of 13th, in four starts at Pocono. This weekend, Dillon will pilot the same car (chassis No. 485) he finished 12th with at Dover International Speedway in May.

Ryan Newman snapped a streak of five consecutive top 10s at Pocono last year in this event after a crash took him out of contention. He participated in the Goodyear Tire test at Pocono in April. This weekend, Newman will pilot the same car (chassis No. 507) that Paul Menard drove to a 15th-place finish earlier this season at Auto Club Speedway.

Tony Stewart is coming off his ninth top 10 in 14 Pocono starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. This weekend, Stewart will debut a new car (chassis No. 991) that he tested at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway on April 26-27.

Denny Hamlin scored his last of four Pocono wins in the 2010 June race. Since his last win, Hamlin has recorded six top 10s, including a 10th-place run in this event last year. Hamlin is coming off consecutive top 10s on the season for the first time since March with his fourth-place run at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Matt Kenseth saved enough gas to win his first Pocono race last August. He also finished sixth on this event last year for his first finish of 21st or better in six overall track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.

Kyle Busch appeared he was on his way to his first Pocono win last August until he ran out of fuel on the final circuit. Busch finished ninth last year in this event for one six top 10s in 16 Pocono starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. This season, Busch ranks 10th in average finish (12.9), but leads all drivers in wins (3) in the 11 races contested with the lower-downforce package.

David Ragan finished 17th last August for his best finish in his last nine Pocono starts.

Casey Mears has yet to finish in the top 10 at Pocono in 10 starts with Germain Racing.

Carl Edwards is coming off his ninth top 10 in 22 Pocono starts. His 10th-place finish last August was his first top 10 in two track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. Edwards, who is a two-time Pocono winner with Roush Fenway Racing, ranks fourth in average finish (9.5) this season in the 11 races with the lower-downforce package.

Drivers to Watch - Pocono
By Sportsbook.ag

The Sprint Cup drivers head to Pocono Raceway this week for the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400. This is the first of two races that will be held here as the athletes will make their way back in late summer for the Pennsylvania 400.

The large 2.5-mile track features three turns with banks between six and 14-degrees and features an asphalt top. There are seven different racers that have won here more than once, with Jimmie Johnson (2004, 2013) being the most recent as Jeff Gordon has the most wins here with four (1996, 1997, 2007, 2011).

Gordon is, however, retired and that will have Johnson looking to catch up to him as long as he is a Sprint Cup driver.

Last week, Martin Truex Jr. was the one that emerged victorious at the Coca-Cola 600. Truex Jr. also happens to be the last driver to win this race, as he cruised to a victory in 2:58:45.

Let’s see who in the field can knock him off this week.

Drivers to Watch

Martin Truex Jr. (9/2) - It’s very hard to pick against Truex Jr. coming into this race. He is a co-favorite to win this weekend and it’s for very good reason, as Truex Jr. won this race in 2015. He was dominant on his way to victory last year and he also happens to have won last week’s Coca-Cola 600. It’s hard to find a driver as hot as Truex Jr. right now and that is why he’s a hard person to avoid this weekend. While his payoff may not be as big as others, he’s worth putting a few units on with the way he’s been driving.

Jimmie Johnson (7/1) - As mentioned earlier, Jimmie Johnson has really been impressive on this track. He has won this race twice in his career and will certainly be ready to go out and win it a third time on Sunday. With no Jeff Gordon around, Johnson has a real chance to end up breaking the record for most wins at this track. He also happens to be coming into this race in some pretty solid form, as he finished in third place at last week’s Coca-Cola 600. At 6/1 he’s worth a couple of units, as he is going to feel comfortable at this event and those are some solid odds for a driver with his talent level.

Kyle Busch (8/1) - Busch is getting the same odds as Johnson in this race and he is yet another excellent pick this weekend. While Busch has not raced well the past two weeks, he does have three victories on the season and nine top-five finishes as well. He’s pretty much always a safe assumption to be near the top of the leaderboard and that’s why he’s always going to be a good value when playing Sprint Cup races. Busch has never won this race in his career, but he does have three top-five finishes at Pocono Raceway and should be fueled to get over the hump and finally win here.

Jamie McMurray (100/1) - McMurray has not won many Sprint Cup races in his career, but he always has a shot when he is driving at Pocono Raceway. He has been very good at this track in his career, coming in the top-10 at this race in three of the past four years. Last year was his best finish at the race, coming in seventh place. He should be able to continue his improvement here and is worth a shot at 66/1. He’d pay off huge and crazier things have happened, as he is very comfortable on this track.