Bahrain Grand Prix predictions come with a twist this weekend. The Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia runs Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Sepang International Circuit, a track Formula 1 has not visited since 2017. Max Verstappen took his first pole of the season with a 1:35.130. Below are our best bets for Sepang: one outright winner, two mid-tier value plays and two long shots.
Last Updated: October 4, 2026
2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Sepang International Circuit, Sepang, Malaysia |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 3:00 AM ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia Betting Preview
Sepang is a permanent road course of 5.543 km with 15 corners, and Sunday’s race covers 56 laps and 310.398 km. Two long straights feed a run of sustained corners, so the layout punishes tyres. Track temperatures sat in the mid-50s Celsius on Saturday, and George Russell called the worn tarmac “extremely rough.” Verstappen leads away with Lewis Hamilton alongside, a repeat of the 2017 front row. Kimi Antonelli starts third and Charles Leclerc fourth after three grid penalties were applied, Isack Hadjar dropping from third to eighth for an engine change. This is a standard weekend. Antonelli leads the championship on 302 points, 66 clear of Russell.
The board is top-heavy, and it contradicts itself. Verstappen is a clear -200 favorite off pole, and the grid-position market prices the pole-sitter at -200 to convert. TheSpread.com’s supporting markets lean the other way. Mercedes is -250 for most team points against Red Bull’s +700, and -150 to set the fastest lap, with Antonelli the individual favorite at +200. The headline price reflects Saturday’s one-lap order; the derivatives treat Mercedes as the strongest long-run package. A caution is also favored, with no safety car period priced at +115.
2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -200 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +400 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +700 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1600 |
| Isack Hadjar | +1800 |
| George Russell | +2500 |
| Lando Norris | +3300 |
| Oscar Piastri | +4000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +30000 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 |
Odds accurate as of October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest F1 Odds – Props
2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia Best Bets
Kimi Antonelli (+400) is our pick to win, and we are fading the pole-sitter to get there. Antonelli topped final practice by 0.278s over Verstappen, the only driver into the 1m36s bracket. He then qualified on a compromised run, having burned extra sets in Q2 and left himself one fresh soft for a single Q3 lap. That explains a 0.501s deficit from the man who had been fastest an hour earlier.
Mercedes also brought a heavily upgraded car and spent Friday night in the simulator unwinding a low-speed balance problem the package introduced. The fix held. A team priced -250 for most team points is being treated as the best race car here, despite starting third and seventh. Across 56 laps on a 50-plus-degree surface, tyre life decides this. Antonelli has also proved he does not need track position, having won the Italian Grand Prix from 19th on the grid before adding the Spanish Grand Prix at Madring.
The case against is real. Verstappen won the last F1 race at Sepang in 2017, and Red Bull’s upgraded car took its first double podium of the season at Baku. The live risk is that the abrasive surface hurts Mercedes more than its rivals, which is what Russell suggested. If that is a race-long problem rather than a qualifying one, Antonelli spends the afternoon managing. At +400 against -200 chalk, the risk is paid for. Our 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix odds preview has the fuller market picture.
Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia Predictions Mid-Tier Value Plays
Isack Hadjar (+1800) is the best penalty-created price on the board. He qualified third on merit, 0.428s off pole and ahead of both Mercedes cars, then lost five places for a seventh internal combustion engine. The grid slot changed; the car did not. Sepang offers two real passing zones and a track 16 to 22 metres wide, so eighth is recoverable with front-row speed. Hadjar also finished third at Baku. The counter: he called the upgraded Red Bull “so unpredictable” through Turns 1 and 9 in practice, and a driver fighting his car will not clear five rivals here.
Charles Leclerc to Finish 3rd (+550) is the better Ferrari angle than the outright. This podium-position market asks only that Leclerc turns a fourth-place start into a third-place finish. He topped second practice, was sixth in FP3, and Ferrari has been kinder to its tyres than Red Bull this year. With Hadjar demoted and Russell down in seventh, he starts closer to the podium than the win market suggests. Against it, third is the most crowded outcome on the grid. If Verstappen, Hamilton and Antonelli all finish, Leclerc races for fourth.
Long Shot Picks for The 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia
Oscar Piastri (+4000) is the deepest outright we would actually back. McLaren had a poor Saturday, Norris setting his best FP3 lap on the medium tyre and finishing over a second off the pace. Piastri starts sixth. The path is a tyre race coming to him: McLaren has been gentle on rear tyres all year, this circuit is brutal on them, and the team is +450 for most team points. He also won the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix at Sakhir. The problem is form: seventh on 120 points, and a podium thrown away at Baku.
Pierre Gasly to Finish 3rd (+8000) is the attrition play. Gasly was comfortably best of the rest in qualifying and starts ninth, at a circuit where the market favors a caution. A podium needs retirements or a safety car that splits strategies, and Sepang’s heat and surface make both plausible. What keeps it a long shot is the gap: Gasly was 2.080s off pole, a chasm rather than a deficit. If the race runs green and clean, he finishes near where he started.
2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia Final Thoughts: What to Watch
Watch the run to Turn 1 first. Sepang’s opening complex is wide, and starting third gives Antonelli a look at Hamilton before the first braking zone. Clear the Ferrari early and the winner pick is live immediately. Get stuck behind it and this becomes a strategy race, with the undercut window opening earlier than teams would like in this heat. Then watch how soon the leaders begin managing rear tyres, because whoever runs longest on the first set controls the pit sequence. Hadjar’s recovery from eighth is the other thread to follow.
F1 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia?
Max Verstappen is the favorite at -200 after taking pole position at Sepang. Kimi Antonelli is next at +400, with Lewis Hamilton at +700. Red Bull is also the favored winning car at -250, ahead of Mercedes at +325.
What are the odds to win the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia?
Verstappen is -200, Antonelli +400, Hamilton +700, Charles Leclerc +1600, Isack Hadjar +1800, George Russell +2500, Lando Norris +3300 and Oscar Piastri +4000. Pierre Gasly at +30000 is the first price outside the top eight.
What time does the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia start?
Lights out is 3:00 AM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Sepang International Circuit. The early start reflects the 12-hour difference between Malaysia and the US Eastern time zone. The race is scheduled for 56 laps.
What channel is the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia on?
Apple TV carries the race for viewers in the United States, and coverage of this round is available without a subscription. Apple TV became Formula 1’s US broadcast home for the 2026 season.
Who is on pole for the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia?
Max Verstappen is on pole with a lap of 1:35.130, his first pole of the 2026 season. Lewis Hamilton joins him on the front row, 0.298s back. Kimi Antonelli and Charles Leclerc fill the second row after grid penalties were applied.
How many laps is the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia?
The race is 56 laps of the 5.543 km Sepang International Circuit, a total distance of 310.398 km. Sepang is a permanent road course with 15 corners, and this is a standard weekend with no sprint race.