Kimi Antonelli joined Mercedes as an 18-year-old picked to replace Lewis Hamilton. Two seasons later, he heads into the final stretch of 2026 with a firm grip on the drivers’ title. For anyone following the F1 betting markets, the question is no longer whether he can win a championship but whether he can close this one out and take one of the sport’s longest-standing age records with it.
Here is how close he is, and what could still stop him.
The record he is chasing
Sebastian Vettel became F1’s youngest world champion at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on 14 November 2010, aged 23 years and 134 days. He went into that race third in the standings, 15 points behind Fernando Alonso, and took the title by winning from pole. That broke Hamilton’s 2008 record by 166 days.
Antonelli was born on 25 August 2006. If the title is only settled at this season’s Abu Dhabi finale on 6 December, he will be 20 years and 103 days old, more than three years younger than Vettel was. Speaking at Monza in September, Vettel said he would be happy to lose the record, adding that “records are there to be broken”.
Antonelli already holds most of the other age records. He became the youngest polesitter in F1 history at the Chinese Grand Prix in March, then the youngest driver to lead the championship after winning in Japan. At Monaco in June he became the youngest driver to score a grand chelem, taking pole, the win and fastest lap while leading every lap.
How big is his lead?
At the time of writing, Antonelli has 302 points to George Russell’s 236 after 15 races, a lead of 66. He has won eight Grand Prixs this season, including five in a row from China to Monaco. He also won at Monza from 19th on the grid, then followed it with victory in Madrid a week later.
Russell has three wins, the latest in Azerbaijan on 26 September. Baku was Antonelli’s weakest weekend of the year. Technical problems cost him practice time, he crashed in Q1 and started 16th before recovering to fifth. He admitted afterwards that a lack of confidence meant he drove at around 80% of his usual level.
When could he wrap it up?
Eight grands prix and the Singapore sprint remain, worth 208 points in total. The next race is the Bahrain Grand Prix on 4 October, moved to Sepang in Malaysia after the original date was cancelled because of the conflict in the Middle East.
The earliest Antonelli can be crowned is the United States Grand Prix in Austin on 25 October. That would take a near-perfect run. Gaining 60 points on Russell across Sepang, the Singapore sprint, the Singapore Grand Prix and Austin would settle it with five races to spare. Anything less pushes the decider to Mexico City or later.
Can anyone stop him?
Russell is the obvious threat because he drives the same car, and he showed in Baku that he can take points off Antonelli when the Italian has an off weekend. On paper, six drivers can still catch him, which gives anyone looking to bet against Antonelli a few options. Oscar Piastri is the furthest back of that group on 120 points, 182 behind with 208 available.
Vettel’s own title shows how late a championship can turn. He did not lead the standings at any point in 2010 until he crossed the line in the final race.
If Antonelli does finish the job, he will also end a long national wait. No Italian has been world champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953.