United States Grand Prix odds open race week with Max Verstappen on top of the board at +120, a price built on back-to-back wins rather than on the championship table. He sits fourth, 119 points behind Mercedes leader Kimi Antonelli, yet arrives in Austin having won the last two Grands Prix and four Circuit of the Americas wins on his record. Antonelli can clinch his first world title on Sunday. Here is how the market has shaped the 2026 board.
Last Updated: Monday, October 19, 2026
2026 United States Grand Prix — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Circuit of the Americas, Austin, Texas |
| When | Sunday, October 25 – 4:00 PM ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
2026 United States Grand Prix Betting Preview
Round 18 runs 56 laps of the 5.513-kilometre Circuit of the Americas. The permanent, anti-clockwise layout pairs a steep uphill braking zone at Turn 1 with fast direction changes and a slower stadium section. It is a standard weekend, not a sprint, with qualifying Saturday evening. Verstappen won here last year, one of his four COTA victories, while Lewis Hamilton remains the circuit’s most successful driver with five.
The title drives the week. Antonelli leads teammate George Russell by 102 points with 150 still available. He can be champion on Sunday, but the combination he needs is narrow: a win, with Russell no higher than ninth and Hamilton no higher than fifth. Anything less carries the fight to Mexico City.
Development is the second thread. Red Bull has the quickest car of the last three rounds, yet it has finished its 2026 upgrade programme. McLaren brings new parts to Austin. Mercedes has announced none and is using all three practice sessions on an upgrade it has struggled to exploit.
2026 United States Grand Prix — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +120 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +225 |
| George Russell | +1100 |
| Lando Norris | +1100 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1200 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1200 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2000 |
| Isack Hadjar | +2000 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 |
Odds accurate as of Monday, October 19, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest F1 Odds – Props
United States Grand Prix Odds: Max Verstappen +120 Favorite
Verstappen at +120 implies roughly 45 percent, a bold number on a 22-car grid. The market is pricing the last three weekends, not the season. He won at Sepang, then swept Singapore with pole, the sprint and the race. Red Bull, nowhere near the front in the first half of the year, is now within seven points of McLaren for third among the constructors.
The vulnerability is development. Red Bull has stopped upgrading for 2026, while McLaren arrives with fresh parts. Verstappen’s run also came on tracks unlike COTA, so the sample behind his form is three weekends long. At +120 there is little margin for a qualifying mistake or an unhelpful safety car.
Antonelli at +225 is the only other driver the market treats as a co-favorite. He has eight wins this season, more than twice anyone else, and a 102-point lead. Yet the gap between his price and Verstappen’s is far smaller than the gap between their points totals. Mercedes’ trouble with its latest upgrade is the simplest reason the championship leader is not the chalk.
United States Grand Prix Mid-Grid Contender Odds
The drop from +225 to +1100 is the steepest cliff on the board, and six drivers sit below it. George Russell (+1100) is second in the championship with three wins, but he has been the second Mercedes for most of the year, and he came out of Singapore ninth after starting 19th on an engine penalty. Lando Norris (+1100) is the reigning world champion with two 2026 wins, in Hungary and at Zandvoort. McLaren’s Austin upgrade could shorten him.
Lewis Hamilton (+1200) owns the field’s strongest circuit record with five COTA wins, but a single victory this season, in Barcelona, explains why history alone does not move him up. Charles Leclerc (+1200) won in Austin in 2024 and finished second in Singapore.
Oscar Piastri (+2000) is the clearest repricing on the board. He fought for the title in 2025, has not won since that year’s Dutch Grand Prix, and trails Norris by 63 points. McLaren principal Andrea Stella has called the issue technical, tied to how the 2026 cars behave in low grip conditions. Isack Hadjar (+2000) rounds out the band. Promoted alongside Verstappen at Red Bull, he is eighth with 97 points and third places at Monaco and in Azerbaijan. The quickest car of the moment is why he sits level with a McLaren driver.
United States Grand Prix Long Shot Odds on the Board
Below Hadjar the board does not taper. It collapses. Fourteen of the 22 entries share the same +50000 price, so the market draws no distinction across the back two-thirds of the grid. Four teams have 332 points or more; the other seven have 100 or fewer.
Liam Lawson (+50000) is the highest-placed driver in that block, ninth with 75 points for Racing Bulls, and Pierre Gasly (+50000) is next on 41 for Alpine. Neither has a podium this year. Carlos Sainz, Fernando Alonso and ten others carry the same number, including Cadillac’s Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas, still pointless in the team’s debut season.
Calling any of them live would overstate the pricing. A win from this block needs the top four teams to remove each other, and COTA’s long braking zones do produce incidents. But +50000 is the market saying it sees no path, rather than a discounted one.
2026 United States Grand Prix Odds: What to Watch
The board is a two-driver front end over a near-flat field, and Saturday evening is what can reshape it. On a circuit where the opening sequence punishes a compromised grid slot, pole will move these prices more than any paddock talk.
Watch practice for whether McLaren’s new parts translate, since Norris and Piastri have the clearest route to shortening, and watch Mercedes for signs it has unlocked its own upgrade. Our Singapore Grand Prix odds preview had Verstappen in the same spot, while the Spanish Grand Prix odds in September had Antonelli as the chalk.
F1 United States Grand Prix FAQ: Sunday October 25, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the United States Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen is the favorite at +120. He won the last two races, at Sepang and Singapore, and has four previous United States Grand Prix wins at Circuit of the Americas. Kimi Antonelli is next at +225.
What are the odds to win the United States Grand Prix?
Verstappen leads at +120, ahead of Antonelli at +225, George Russell and Lando Norris at +1100, Hamilton and Charles Leclerc at +1200, and Oscar Piastri and Isack Hadjar at +2000. The other 14 drivers are all priced at +50000.
What time does the United States Grand Prix start?
The 2026 United States Grand Prix starts at 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 25, at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas. Qualifying sets the grid the evening before, on Saturday, October 24. There is no sprint race.
What channel is the United States Grand Prix on?
Apple TV carries the United States Grand Prix in the United States. Apple took exclusive US rights to Formula 1 from the 2026 season under a five-year deal covering every practice, qualifying session and race.
Who won the United States Grand Prix last year?
Max Verstappen won the 2025 United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. It was his fourth win at the venue, after 2021, 2022 and 2023. Charles Leclerc, in 2024, is the only other Austin winner since 2020.