Italian Grand Prix odds have Lando Norris on top of the board at +150 as Formula 1 returns to Monza. Norris arrives on consecutive wins in Hungary and at Zandvoort, and the upgraded McLaren has turned a slow start into real momentum. The market is also shaped by a penalty, because championship leader Kimi Antonelli takes a grid drop for an engine change at his home race. Below is the full 2026 Italian Grand Prix odds board.
Last Updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026
2026 Italian Grand Prix — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Autodromo Nazionale Monza, Monza, Italy |
| When | Sunday, September 6 – 9:00 AM ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
2026 Italian Grand Prix Betting Preview
Monza is the fastest venue on the calendar. The permanent road course measures 5.793 km per lap, and the race runs 53 laps for a distance of 306.72 km. Cars average well over 260 km/h across a lap. Teams strip downforce to the bone, the slipstream matters, and the Turn 1 chicane is the primary passing zone. This is a standard weekend rather than a sprint, so Saturday qualifying sets the grid.
Max Verstappen won this race last year from pole, and Monza rewards straight-line speed paired with clean strategy. The 2026 board reflects a different order. Seven drivers sit at +1600 or shorter, then the market falls off a cliff to +25000. That shape frames this as a four-team race at most.
Two race-week storylines are doing most of the work on the prices. Mercedes has confirmed that Antonelli takes a grid penalty for exceeding his power unit allocation, running from ten places to a back-row start depending on the components changed. Ferrari will run an upgraded power unit for Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc at its home event. Both items explain why the middle of this board looks unusual.
2026 Italian Grand Prix — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +150 |
| George Russell | +225 |
| Charles Leclerc | +650 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +650 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +1400 |
| Max Verstappen | +1600 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1600 |
| Liam Lawson | +25000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +50000 |
Odds accurate as of Wednesday, September 2, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest F1 Odds – Props
2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix Odds: Lando Norris Favored
Norris at +150 carries an implied probability of roughly 40 percent. That is short for a 22-car field, and the market has reasons for it. He won the Hungarian Grand Prix and then backed it up at Zandvoort by 11.5 seconds. McLaren’s upgraded package has been the fastest thing on track over two rounds, and Norris finished second here in the most recent running.
The case against the price is straightforward. Mercedes still leads the Constructors’ Championship clearly, and its straight-line performance is the benchmark others chase into Monza. A low-downforce circuit compresses the field, and the slipstream keeps cars in play that would be dropped elsewhere. Norris also sits fourth on 159 points, which is not the profile of a runaway favorite. At +150 there is little margin for a poor qualifying lap.
George Russell sits second at +225 and is the other half of the chalk. He is tied for second in the standings on 183 points, and with Antonelli penalized he is the Mercedes starting from its earned grid slot. Leclerc and Hamilton follow at +650 apiece, which is where the market has placed the Ferrari upgrade — meaningful, but unproven.
2026 Italian Grand Prix Odds: Mid-Grid Contenders
Kimi Antonelli (+1400) is the clearest case of a driver priced below his season. He leads the Drivers’ Championship on 242 points, 59 clear, and finished second at Zandvoort. The price is about the engine penalty. Starting ten places back or worse, at a circuit where track position matters, is a heavy handicap even in a fast car. That single input moved him from championship leader to fifth on the board.
Max Verstappen (+1600) won this race a year ago and has more Monza equity than anyone on the board. His 2026 has not matched it. He sits sixth on 112 points and crashed out on lap one in the Netherlands. The gap between circuit record and current form is the whole story of the price.
Oscar Piastri (+1600) drives the same car that has won the last two races, which normally would not price this long. He is seventh on 104 points and has been the second McLaren most of the season. Monza’s setup window can reshuffle intra-team order, and that is roughly what the number reflects. Our 2026 Dutch Grand Prix odds preview covered a very different board two weeks ago.
Italian Grand Prix Long Shots Odds on the Board
Past the top seven the board drops sharply. Liam Lawson (+25000) opens the long-shot band. He is ninth in the standings on 49 points, the most credible driver out here. Still, the gap between his price and Piastri’s at +1600 shows how firmly the market has drawn a line under the four front-running teams.
Everyone else sits at +50000. Pierre Gasly is tenth on 44 points and leads that group, with Arvid Lindblad next on 23. Neither car matches front-running race pace at a power circuit. What keeps these names theoretically alive is Monza itself. The chicanes generate first-lap contact, the tow shuffles the order, and a well-timed safety car can hand track position to a car that stopped early.
That is a path, not a likelihood. A driver in this band needs attrition at the front, a strategy break and clean execution across 53 laps in one afternoon.
The Last Word on the 2026 Italian Grand Prix Odds
This board is unusually top-heavy for a 22-car grid, and it rests on two moving parts. The first is Saturday qualifying. Monza rewards track position, and a front-row lockout or a surprise pole would reshape these numbers quickly. The second is the size of Antonelli’s penalty, which depends on how many power unit components Mercedes fits. A ten-place drop and a back-row start are very different outcomes.
Watch the Ferrari prices too. If the upgraded engine shows real straight-line gain in practice, the +650 pair are the likeliest to shorten before Sunday. Our Dutch Grand Prix coverage shows how quickly this season’s order has moved.
F1 Italian Grand Prix FAQ: Sunday September 6, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the Italian Grand Prix?
Lando Norris is the favorite at +150 for the 2026 Italian Grand Prix. The McLaren driver has won the last two rounds, the Hungarian Grand Prix and the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort. George Russell is next at +225.
What are the odds to win the Italian Grand Prix?
Lando Norris leads the Italian Grand Prix odds at +150, ahead of George Russell at +225, Charles Leclerc at +650 and Lewis Hamilton at +650. Kimi Antonelli is +1400, with Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri both +1600. The rest of the 22-car field is +25000 or longer.
What time does the Italian Grand Prix start?
The 2026 Italian Grand Prix starts at 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, September 6, which is 15:00 local time at Monza. Qualifying runs Saturday, September 5.
What channel is the Italian Grand Prix on?
The 2026 Italian Grand Prix streams on Apple TV in the United States. Apple holds exclusive US Formula 1 rights from the 2026 season, covering practice, qualifying and every Grand Prix.
How many laps is the Italian Grand Prix?
The Italian Grand Prix runs 53 laps at Autodromo Nazionale Monza for a race distance of 306.72 km. The circuit measures 5.793 km per lap and is the fastest layout on the F1 calendar.
Who won the Italian Grand Prix last year?
Max Verstappen won the 2025 Italian Grand Prix at Monza, starting from pole and finishing ahead of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. It was his third victory of that season.