No. 16 USC comes out of its bye week and heads to Camp Randall Stadium for a Saturday night Big Ten test against Wisconsin. The Trojans are 2.5-point road favorites at -120, and the total sits at 50. Lincoln Riley’s team brings the conference’s most productive passing attack into Madison. Wisconsin counters with a physical defense and a quarterback who can hurt teams with his legs. Roughly three of every four spread bets are on USC, yet the number has not moved off 2.5. Below, we break down the matchup, the line, and where we see value in this USC vs. Wisconsin prediction.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026
USC vs. Wisconsin — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI |
| When | Saturday, October 24 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
USC vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
USC enters at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten. The Trojans have won two straight, including a road win at Penn State on Oct. 10. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is the engine. He has thrown 18 touchdowns against just three interceptions, and he leads the Big Ten in passing. This offense will test any secondary it faces, and it had an extra week to prepare.
Wisconsin sits at 4-2 and 2-1 in conference play. The Badgers are coming off their first Big Ten loss, a low-scoring defeat at UCLA last week. Before that, Wisconsin had strung together four straight wins. Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph starts at quarterback. He gives the Badgers a run-pass threat that can stress a defense on third down. Wisconsin is not ranked this week, so a home win over a ranked opponent would reshape its Big Ten outlook.
Availability matters on both sides. USC has ruled out receivers Corey Simms and Terrell Anderson along with offensive lineman Kilian O’Connor. Tight end Mark Bowman and defensive tackle Jide Abasiri are questionable. Wisconsin will be without cornerback Cai Bates, which thins a secondary that has to handle Maiava. Running back Nate Palmer’s status is also in doubt.
History favors the visitors. USC leads the all-time series 7-1, and it won the only Big Ten meeting 38-21 in Los Angeles in 2024. Wisconsin’s lone win came in the 2015 Holiday Bowl. However, this is a new Wisconsin defense and a very different setting.
USC vs. Wisconsin Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | -2.5 (-120) | -140 | O 50 (-105) |
| Wisconsin | +2.5 (+100) | +120 | U 50 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, October 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
USC vs. Wisconsin — Who Is the Public Betting?
| USC | 75% | 25% | Wisconsin |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
USC vs. Wisconsin Prediction — Is the Road Favorite Getting Too Much Respect?
The market opened with USC laying 2.5 points at -115, and the spread itself has not budged. Meanwhile, 75% of spread tickets are on the Trojans. The only movement has been in the price, which has crept to -120 on USC. When three-quarters of the public lands on one side and the key number holds, it usually means the other side is drawing respect. A move to USC -3 would have been easy to make, and it has not happened.
The matchup also gives Wisconsin a path. The Badgers play a physical, ball-control style that tends to keep games tight. Joseph’s legs can extend drives and shorten the game, which limits Maiava’s possessions. Missing two receivers also trims USC’s depth on the outside. A night crowd at Camp Randall adds another layer for a team traveling two time zones.
The case against is real, though. USC had two weeks to prepare, and Maiava’s efficiency is the best in the conference. Wisconsin’s passing game was quiet against UCLA, and losing Bates hurts a secondary facing its toughest test of the season. If the Badgers fall behind early, their run-first approach becomes a liability. Still, with a field goal deciding the number, we lean toward the home side that keeps this close.
The Pick: Wisconsin +2.5 (+100)
USC vs. Wisconsin Prediction — Can the Badgers Drag This Into the Mud?
The total opened at 49.5 and has ticked up to 50, with the Over now at -105. That small move reflects respect for USC’s passing game. On the other hand, Wisconsin’s games tell a different story. The loss at UCLA was a low-scoring grind, with Wisconsin managing 10 points or fewer. Their offense leans on Joseph and the ground game, which keeps the clock running and drains possessions from both teams.
The risk is that Maiava finds rhythm early. USC’s passing game can score in bunches, and a short field off a turnover could force Wisconsin to open up. If both offenses hit explosive plays, 50 can fall quickly. Even so, a methodical Wisconsin game plan and a thinner USC receiver room point toward a lower-scoring night.
The Pick: Under 50 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
If you like Wisconsin to cover a short number, the moneyline is worth a look. At +120, the Badgers carry an implied probability of about 45%. In a game priced this tightly, most Wisconsin covers will also be outright wins. The downside is clear: a USC win by one or two points cashes the spread pick but loses the moneyline. Keep the stake small, because USC remains the more talented roster on paper.
Bonus Pick: Wisconsin Moneyline (+120)
Looking for more college football action? Check out our Duke vs Virginia Prediction and Best Bet for Friday October 23, 2026. Here is a recap of all our USC vs. Wisconsin picks:
- Wisconsin +2.5 (+100)
- Under 50 (-115)
- Bonus: Wisconsin Moneyline (+120)
NCAAF USC vs. Wisconsin FAQ: Saturday October 24, 2026
What time does the USC vs. Wisconsin game start?
USC vs. Wisconsin kicks off at 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 24, 2026. That is 6:30 PM Central in Madison and 4:30 PM Pacific for Trojans fans on the West Coast. The game is part of NBC’s Big Ten Saturday Night window.
What channel is the USC vs. Wisconsin game on?
The USC vs. Wisconsin game airs nationally on NBC, with streaming available on Peacock. Noah Eagle will call the action alongside analyst Todd Blackledge, with Kathryn Tappen reporting from the sideline at Camp Randall Stadium.
Where are USC and Wisconsin playing?
USC and Wisconsin play at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. The Badgers are the home team for this Big Ten conference matchup. Kickoff is set for 6:30 PM local time under the lights in Madison.
Who won the last meeting between USC and Wisconsin?
USC won the last meeting 38-21 on September 28, 2024, in Los Angeles. That was the first matchup between the schools as Big Ten members. USC leads the all-time series 7-1, and Wisconsin’s only win came in the 2015 Holiday Bowl.
Who is starting at quarterback for USC and Wisconsin?
Jayden Maiava starts at quarterback for USC, and Colton Joseph starts for Wisconsin. Maiava leads the Big Ten in passing with 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. Joseph, an Old Dominion transfer, is a dual threat with 10 touchdown passes and three rushing scores.