Two SEC teams heading in opposite directions meet under the lights in Austin on Saturday night. Mississippi rolls in at 5-1 after a 31-3 rout of Missouri, while Texas sits at 4-2 after back-to-back three-point losses. The home side still owns a 3-point spread edge, and the market has barely budged despite a heavy lean toward the visitors. Below, we break down the matchup, the injury news that could swing it, and our picks against the spread, on the total, and one bonus angle worth a look.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026
Mississippi vs. Texas — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin TX |
| When | Saturday, October 24 – 7:30 PM ET |
| TV | ABC |
Mississippi vs. Texas Betting Preview
Mississippi enters at No. 7 in the AP poll with a 5-1 record and a 3-1 mark in SEC play. Its only loss came at Florida in September. Since then, the offense has been humming. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss accounted for four touchdowns in the 31-3 homecoming win over Missouri, and the ground game piled up 257 rushing yards that day. On the season, Chambliss is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 1,676 yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has added six rushing scores.
Texas has gone the other way. The Longhorns opened 4-0 with a 24-23 win over Ohio State, then lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 to Florida. That second loss came at home, as Texas managed just 272 total yards and Arch Manning was sacked five times. Now 4-2 and 1-2 in the SEC, Texas has fallen to No. 19. Another loss would put a serious dent in its playoff hopes.
The injury report matters here. Texas has ruled out edge rusher Colin Simmons, who leads the nation with 10.5 sacks. Freshman edge Richard Wesley is also out, and leading rusher Hollywood Smothers was ruled out as well. For Mississippi, the secondary is thin, with several safeties and a cornerback listed as out. This is also the first time these programs have met as SEC opponents.
Mississippi vs. Texas Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | +3.0 (-105) | +130 | O 54.0 (-110) |
| Texas | -3.0 (-115) | -150 | U 54.0 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of October 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Mississippi vs. Texas — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mississippi | 85% | 15% | Texas |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mississippi vs. Texas Prediction — Can the Underdog Keep It Within the Number?
The spread opened with Texas laying 3.5 points and has since ticked down to a field goal. That move is small, but it lines up with the betting split. Roughly 85 percent of spread tickets are on Mississippi. Lopsided public support usually makes us cautious. Still, this time the numbers behind the visitors look sound. The total has also climbed two points from its opener of 52.
The core case for the road side is the Simmons absence. He leads the nation with 10.5 sacks. Without him and Wesley, the Longhorns lose their two best options for pressuring Chambliss, a quarterback who can punish defenses with his arm and his legs. Mississippi averages 37.5 points per game, and Chambliss has been efficient all season. Meanwhile, the Texas offense has stalled, averaging 30.2 points per game and failing to crack 300 yards against Florida. Losing Smothers removes its leading rusher, too.
The case against is real, however. Texas allows just 17.8 points per game, and its defense grades out near the top of the country in efficiency metrics. Mississippi gives up 390 yards per game, the most in the SEC. A desperate home team in prime time is never an easy fade, either. In the end, a healthy offense against a short-handed pass rush earns the nod with the points.
The Pick: Mississippi +3.0 (-105)
Mississippi vs. Texas Prediction — Will the Points Keep Piling Up in Austin?
The total opened at 52 and now sits at 54, so the market expects more scoring than it did early in the week. The case for points is clear. Mississippi’s offense is among the most productive in the SEC, and its defense has allowed 23.8 points per game. Texas also enters without its top pass rusher, which could extend drives for Chambliss.
On the other hand, the Texas offense has scored 24 points in each of its last two games. Both of those were close, grinding affairs. The Longhorns’ defense has been stingy all year, and Mississippi just held Missouri to three points and 39 rushing yards. Texas will likely lean on its defense and shorten the game. With the number already pushed up two points, the value now sits on the lower side.
The Pick: Under 54.0 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
If you like Mississippi to cover, the moneyline deserves a look. At +130, the price implies about a 43.5 percent win chance. Texas sits at -150, which implies 60 percent. Given the Longhorns’ missing edge rushers and stalled offense, a near coin-flip view of this game makes the plus price appealing. The risk is obvious, though. Texas is at home, and its defense can keep it in any game. A field-goal spread means many outcomes land within one score, so size this play smaller than the spread bet.
Bonus Pick: Mississippi Moneyline (+130)
Here is a recap of every pick in this article:
- Mississippi +3.0 (-105)
- Under 54.0 (-110)
- Mississippi Moneyline (+130)
NCAAF Mississippi vs. Texas FAQ: Saturday October 24, 2026
What time does the Mississippi vs. Texas game start?
The Mississippi vs. Texas game kicks off at 7:30 PM ET (6:30 PM CT) on Saturday, October 24, 2026. It is a prime-time SEC matchup in Austin, Texas, between two teams ranked in the AP Top 25 entering the weekend.
What channel is the Mississippi vs. Texas game on?
The Mississippi vs. Texas game airs nationally on ABC. Coverage begins with the 7:30 PM ET kickoff on Saturday, October 24, from Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, as part of the network’s Saturday night college football slate. ABC is also available on live TV streaming services such as Fubo.
Where are Mississippi and Texas playing?
Mississippi and Texas play at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. It is a true home game for the Longhorns, and it marks the first meeting between the two programs as members of the Southeastern Conference. Texas leads the all-time series, but the schools have not met in more than a decade.
Is Mississippi or Texas ranked?
Both teams are ranked. Mississippi is No. 7 in the latest AP Top 25 at 5-1, and Texas is No. 19 at 4-2. Texas slid down the poll after back-to-back three-point losses to Oklahoma and Florida, while Mississippi climbed after its 31-3 win over Missouri.
Who is starting at quarterback for Mississippi and Texas?
Trinidad Chambliss starts at quarterback for Mississippi, and Arch Manning starts for Texas. Chambliss has thrown 14 touchdown passes this season and accounted for four scores against Missouri. Manning completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards in last week’s loss to Florida.