Last Updated on August 28, 2023 12:38 pm by Alex Becker
USC Win Total Prediction
The USC Trojans performed well in Lincoln Riley’s first season there last year. USC went 11-3 with their season culminating in a 46-45 Cotton Bowl loss against Tulane.
Can the Trojans win double-digit regular season games for the second consecutive year in 2023?
USC Trojans Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -175
Under 9.5 +145
2022 Season Recap
USC looked like they had a chance to legitimately run the table in 2023 after they started the year 6-0. Then the Trojans lost a heartbreaker at Utah 43-42. From there, USC won out in the regular season to finish the campaign 11-1. Unfortunately, the Trojans again lost to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game and followed that up with a wild come-from-ahead loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. Despite finishing the season 11-3, USC was a couple of plays from finishing 13-1. Their star was Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams who threw for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions while also adding 382 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns on the ground. Williams will be a true junior in 2023 and will likely be off to the NFL once the season is over. It’s worth noting that Caleb Williams is currently the Heisman Trophy favorite despite only one player ever having won the award twice in their college career (Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975). The Trojans will likely go as far as Caleb Williams takes them this season.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: WR Jordan Addison, OLB Tuli Tuipulotu, CB Mekhi Blackmon, OG Andrew Vorhees, RB Travis Dye, WR Kyle Ford, WR Jake Smith, WR Gary Bryant Jr., WR C.J. Williams, S Xavion Alford
Key Player Additions: EDGE Anthony Lucas, DL Bear Alexander, RB MarShawn Lloyd, WR Dorian Singer, CB Tre’quon Fagans, OT Michael Tarquin, CB Christian Roland-Wallace, LB Jamil Muhammad, LB Mason Cobb, RG Jarrett Kingston
USC lost four players to the NFL this offseason in wideout Jordan Addison, outside linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu, corner Mekhi Blackmon, and guard Andrew Vorhees. USC running back Travis Dye went undrafted but is currently a member of the New York Jets’ expanded roster. The other players who left USC likely did so due to playing time concerns. USC head coach Lincoln Riley shrewdly brought quarterback Caleb Williams with him when he jumped from Norman to Los Angeles, and since the NCAA changed their transfer rules (allowing players one free transfer without having to sit out a year) it’s basically been open season on the transfer market for USC. The NCAA now also allows players to profit off of their name, image, and likeness, and that makes USC’s Los Angeles campus that much more attractive to players languishing away on subpar Pac-12 teams or at the bottom of SEC depth charts. Poaching other teams’ players has worked well for Lincoln Riley thus far and should work again for him this year.
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The Trojans only brought in one wide receiver through the transfer portal: former Arizona Wildcat Dorian Singer. This is likely because the Trojans return several upperclassmen at wideout in 2023. They should be good there. USC will likely start three transfers at offensive line in left guard Emmanuel Pregnon, right guard Jarrett Kingston, and right tackle Michael Tarquin. Both Kingston and Tarquin are seniors, so they should be able to step in and perform right away. On the defensive side of the ball, USC brought in six new starters via the transfer portal. The most impactful among that group will likely be former Texas A&M defensive end Anthony Lucas and former Georgia defensive tackle Bear Alexander. Both players are four-star prospects and should help USC shore up a run defense that ranked 112th in opponent yards per rushing attempt last season. USC led the nation in average turnover margin per game last year (+1.5), but they’ll likely have to play more solid straight-up defense this season due to the inevitable fluctuation of turnover luck. The Trojans’ coaching staff will be key on that front.
Key Coaching Departure: Senior offensive analyst/assistant quarterbacks coach/game management coordinator Will Harriger
Key Coaching Promotion/Addition: Senior offensive analyst Kliff Kingsbury
The headliner of the show at USC is undoubtedly quarterback Caleb Williams. But the second name on the marquee is Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley. Riley surprised many when he left Oklahoma, and he brought several coaches with him when he made the trek to Southern California. The most notable of these is former Oklahoma defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. USC’s defense was what let them down at the end of last season as they gave up nearly 2,000 yards in their final four games. Grinch’s defense at Oklahoma suffered similar breakdowns in big spots, namely the College Football Playoff in 2017, 2018, and 2019. The talent on those Oklahoma teams was iffy, and the Trojans weren’t particularly talented on defense last season. They should be much better this season (at least on paper), and Alex Grinch likely knows that there will be no excuse for the Trojans’ defense to underperform in 2023. He has the players, he just has to coach them up this season. I like his chances.
The only notable coaching change for USC was swapping out former senior offensive analyst Will Harriger (who took a job as an offensive assistant with the Dallas Cowboys), with former Texas Tech and Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury. I really like this move, as Kingsbury has worked with multiple luminary college quarterbacks like Heisman winner Johnny Manziel, the NCAA FBS all-time passing leader Case Keenum, and future Hall of Fame NFL quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Kingsbury should bring a fresh set of ideas to prevent things from getting stale for USC QB Caleb Williams.
One small note that also stuck out to me: USC does not have a dedicated special teams coach, as they divvy up those responsibilities among the litany of position coaches on staff. The only coach with a special teams title is senior special teams analyst/assistant special teams coordinator Ryan Dougherty. The Trojans will likely have two new returns specialists and a new punter this season, so their special teams situation is worth keeping an eye on.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
If you go by winning percentage, USC is tied for the 97th-toughest schedule out of 133 FBS schools. It doesn’t appear to be too bad. The schedule is broken down into two halves. The first half is relatively easy, with USC’s most challenging game likely coming at Arizona State on September 23rd. It seems unlikely that the Trojans will lose any of their first six games (home for San Jose State, Nevada, and Stanford, on the road against Arizona State and Colorado, then home for Arizona). But after a likely 6-0 start, USC has to go to Notre Dame on October 14th. After that, the Trojans face a gauntlet of Pac-12 contenders. USC does get Utah at home on October 21st, but the Trojans’ final three contests are home for Washington, at Oregon, and home for UCLA. USC will likely only need to win one of three against Notre Dame, Utah, and Oregon, and I think they’re quite capable of that.
It’s also worth noting that Caleb Williams is the best quarterback in the country and will likely be the #1 pick in the NFL Draft if and when he decides to declare. He is that good. And with the total being 9.5, USC could even lose one more regular season game than they did last year and still cash the over. I’m in on Caleb Williams, Lincoln Riley, and an improved USC defense in 2023. You have to lay the wood with the odds, but I’m on the USC over anyway.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: USC TROJANS OVER 9.5 WINS -175