Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 Playoff Prediction: Is betting total too high?

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4 Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4

The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs continue tonight as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Florida Panthers in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal series. This marks a rematch of their 2023 second-round encounter, where Florida eliminated Toronto in five games. What’s the smart play in tonight’s Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 matchup?

Game Matchup

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

8:00 p.m. ET, Monday, May 5, 2025

Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Panthers are -125 moneyline favorites. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, are +105 moneyline underdogs. As for the total, its sits at 5.5 goals.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 Public Betting: Bettors Backing Dog

As of this writing, our NHL Public Betting Page shows that 53% of bets are on the Maple Leafs’ moneyline. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided to get the most up-to-date public betting information.

Florida Panthers

Regular Season Record: 47-31-4

First Round: Defeated Tampa Bay Lightning in 5 games

Key Players: Sam Reinhart (6 points), Aleksander Barkov (5 points), Anton Lundell (5 points)

Goaltender: Sergei Bobrovsky (4-1-0, 2.21 GAA, .901 SV%)

Toronto Maple Leafs

Regular Season Record: 52-26-4

First Round: Defeated Ottawa Senators in 6 games

Key Players: William Nylander (9 points), Mitch Marner (8 points), Auston Matthews (7 points)

Goaltender: Anthony Stolarz (4-2-0, 2.21 GAA, .901 SV%)

Key Matchups & Storylines

Special Teams Battle

Toronto’s power play has been potent, converting at 35.3% in the first round. However, they’ll face Florida’s robust penalty kill, which boasts an 88.9% success rate this postseason. The effectiveness of these units could be pivotal in determining the game’s outcome.

Impact of Aaron Ekblad’s Absence

Florida will be without top defenseman Aaron Ekblad, who is serving the final game of a suspension. The Panthers have struggled without him, posting a 10-14-2 record and a -16 goal differential in his absence this season.

Goaltending Duel

Both teams feature goaltenders with identical postseason stats: 2.21 GAA and .901 SV%. Stolarz’s performance, especially early in the game, could set the tone for Toronto.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 Betting Prediction

While Florida enters as the favorite, Toronto’s home-ice advantage and the Panthers’ missing key defenseman could tilt the scales. That said, the smart bet tonight is the under, which is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction: UNDER 5.5