Our Maple Leafs vs Kraken prediction lands on a near pick’em in Seattle. Toronto sits at -120 on the moneyline, Seattle at +100, and the total is 6.5. The Maple Leafs arrive off a 5-2 loss in Calgary that snapped a four-game winning streak. The Kraken have been off since a 5-1 home loss to Minnesota. Neither crease is confirmed yet, and that shapes everything below. We break down the goaltending, the special teams gap and the market before landing on two plays.
Last Updated: October 28, 2026
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Seattle Kraken — Time and How to Watch
| Where | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle WA |
| When | October 28 – 10:00 PM ET |
| TV | KONG |
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Seattle Kraken Betting Preview
Start in goal, because neither team has named a starter. Seattle projects to go with Philipp Grubauer, who is 4-1-1 with a .907 save percentage. He appears to have taken the net from Joey Daccord. Daccord allowed four goals on 35 shots in Saturday’s loss to Minnesota. Toronto is the bigger question. Coach Jim Hiller has alternated his goalies on this run. Anthony Stolarz started the 6-2 win over Columbus, and Sergei Bobrovsky took the 5-4 win over the Rangers. Stolarz then got the 7-2 rout in Edmonton, per TSN’s report on Stolarz getting the Edmonton start. Bobrovsky then started Monday in Calgary.
That pattern points to Stolarz, who is 4-1-0 with a .907 save percentage. Bobrovsky is 3-4-2 with a .897 mark, according to NHL.com. Treat the read below as provisional until Toronto confirms its starter. Still, the gap between the two is modest. Neither Toronto option is clearly better than Grubauer, and none of the three projects as a game-stealer.
Both teams can score. Toronto averages 3.71 goals per game and allows 3.21. Seattle scores 3.58 and allows 3.50. Auston Matthews leads Toronto with nine goals and 20 points, and William Nylander has nine goals and 19 points. The special teams gap is stark. Toronto’s power play converts 28.89% of its chances, and its penalty kill sits first in the league at 93.62%. In contrast, Seattle’s penalty kill ranks 26th at 70.59%.
Injuries cut both ways. Seattle lost its career scoring leader, Jared McCann, for about 10 weeks with a lower-body injury. Toronto’s Kirill Marchenko left Monday’s game with a lower-body injury and is day-to-day. John Tavares and Chris Tanev remain out. The schedule spot leans Seattle. Toronto plays its third game of a four-stop western trip on one day of rest. The Kraken close a homestand after three full days off. Seattle also won the last meeting, a 5-2 home win in January behind two goals from Shane Wright.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Seattle Kraken Betting Odds
| Puck Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | -1.5 (+205) | -120 | O 6.5 (-120) |
| Kraken | +1.5 (-245) | +100 | U 6.5 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of October 28, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NHL Odds – Futures – Props
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Seattle Kraken — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Maple Leafs | 38% | 62% | Kraken |
See the latest NHL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken Prediction — Toronto’s Power Play Meets Seattle’s 26th-Ranked Kill
Nine of Toronto’s 14 games this season have produced at least seven goals, including 7-2 in Edmonton and 5-2 in Calgary this week. Seattle’s games have run hot too, with eight of 12 going over the posted total, per the Covers game log. The matchup explains why. These are two top-seven offenses, and both defenses sit in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed. Seattle has given up 3.50 per game, which is among the worst marks in the league.
Goaltending supports the case rather than fighting it. All three likely starters sit at .907 or below. Meanwhile, the special teams matchup is lopsided in the right direction. Toronto’s power play is fifth in the league, and Seattle’s penalty kill is 26th. Every Seattle penalty is a real scoring chance for Matthews and Nylander. Hockey math adds two more tailwinds. A trailing team pulls its goaltender late, so empty-net goals regularly add to the count. Toronto gave up two of them on Monday. Overtime and the shootout also count here, and a game tied after 60 minutes adds at least one more goal.
The case against is real. Toronto’s league-best penalty kill can shut down Seattle’s power play. The Kraken also scored once in their only game since McCann went down. The price is the other cost. At -120 the break-even rate is 54.5%, and the total has not moved from its opening number. That means no market confirmation, which keeps this a lean rather than a top-grade play. Still, the full-game scoring profile of both teams clears that bar.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (-120)
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken Prediction — Seattle’s First Home Test Without Jared McCann
The side comes down to who handles the missing pieces better. Seattle loses its all-time leading scorer for months, and the offense managed one goal in its first game without him. Toronto keeps its two best scorers and has the far better special teams on both ends. Before Monday, the Maple Leafs had won four straight by a combined 21-9. Two empty-net goals also inflated the margin of the loss in Calgary. That edge tends to show over 60 minutes, and the moneyline also covers overtime and the shootout. At -120, Toronto needs to win 54.5% of the time. With the power play gap and Seattle’s missing scorer, that bar looks reachable. Note that this play and the over lean on the same input, Toronto’s power play against Seattle’s penalty kill.
However, the market raises a flag. About 71% of moneyline bets are on Toronto, yet the price has sat at -120 since it opened. A number that refuses to move under one-way action can hint at quieter money on Seattle. Add a rested home team, a road team on one day of rest, and an unconfirmed Toronto goalie. The edge here is thinner than the first play, so size it accordingly.
The Pick: Maple Leafs Moneyline (-120)
Our Final Word on Maple Leafs vs. Kraken
The puck line tells a story of its own. Toronto -1.5 has drifted from +195 to +205, and Seattle +1.5 has shortened from -235 to -245. That move follows the 62% of puck line tickets on Seattle, so it carries little signal. Toronto’s goalie confirmation is the input to watch before puck drop. A Stolarz start fits the read above. A Bobrovsky start nudges the over slightly higher and the Toronto side slightly lower. For more context on both clubs, see our Maple Leafs vs Flames prediction and our Mammoth vs Kraken prediction.
Our top play is the Over 6.5 at -120, backed by two top-seven offenses and Seattle’s 26th-ranked penalty kill. Our second play is the Maple Leafs moneyline at -120, built on Toronto’s special teams edge against a Seattle lineup missing Jared McCann.