Packers vs. Lions Picks: Thanksgiving Total set too Low?

Thanksgiving Day in the NFL is prime time for chaos, revenge games and profitable betting angles — and this Packers vs. Lions picks preview has all the ingredients. Whether you’re hunting a totals ticket or looking for leverage against the closing lines, this piece breaks down the game info, weather, injuries, betting trends and a prediction. Read on — I’ll show you how two efficient offenses, a few matchup edges, and situational game flow all point toward a point-heavy Thursday in Detroit.

Packers vs. Lions Game Day Information

• Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

• Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025 (Thanksgiving Day)

• Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 p.m. CT.

• Location: Ford Field — Detroit, MI.

• TV: FOX (national early window).

Injury Report

Packers injury notes from the official report show several players with limited participation during the week but a few notable names trending toward being available: Jordan Love (QB) practiced fully and looks set to go; Jayden Reed (WR) has been limited but listed as practicing; Josh Jacobs (RB) is listed with limited participation — his status matters for Green Bay’s ability to sustain drives and score consistently. On defense, Lukas Van Ness (DL) did not participate and could be a factor if he’s unavailable to pressure Detroit’s offense.

Detroit’s report shows key designations as well: Penei Sewell (T) and Brian Branch (DB) were limited at times but trending toward being active; Kerby Joseph (S) did not practice and his absence would weaken Detroit’s deep safety help and increase the value of intermediate passing and explosive plays. Availability or absence of those Detroit defenders affects how clean Jared Goff can operate and how often Detroit turns to the run game. If Detroit is near-full strength up front and in the secondary, we still see plenty of scoring — this matchup is about weaponry and tempo as much as health.

Public Betting Tickets

Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.

Betting Trends & Context

• Market lines: Most books have this one in the 48.5–49.0 total range with Detroit favored by roughly 2.5–3 points; Bovada lists this game around O 49.0 / U 49.0 in the market. That boundary puts 48.5 (where you can often find slightly better vigorish or alternate markets) right in the sweet spot for a totals play.

• Scoring profiles: Detroit is among the league’s higher-scoring units (roughly ~29.5 PPG this season) while Green Bay is scoring in the mid-to-upper 20s (about ~24.0 PPG). When you combine both teams’ season scoring outputs, you get a foundation for a high total.

• Recent form / stylistic matchup: Detroit leans into an efficient run game and big-play offense; Green Bay has aggressive pass-attack tendencies and has been involved in several higher-total games lately. Divisional familiarity also reduces conservative play-calling — both sides know each other and will trade shots.

Why the OVER 48.5 will cash

1. Two potent offenses, complementary play-calling: Detroit’s offense (top-tier scoring this year) routinely produces chunk plays and finish drives, while Green Bay’s attack, even when slowed, still generates enough points to keep games above the mid-40s. The Lions’ ability to score quickly (big-play touchdown potential) forces Green Bay to play catch-up at times, which speeds up play-calling and increases possessions for both offenses. With each team averaging mid-to-high 20s per game on the season, a combined output near or north of 50 points is well within their baseline.

2. Game script and situational factors favor scoring: Thanksgiving matchups are often played in front of large crowds and national audiences with coaches less likely to sit on a conservative script — and this is a rivalry game with playoff implications for both clubs. If Detroit gets its usual rushing success, Green Bay will need to respond through the air, increasing pass attempts and quick-strike scoring chances. On the flip side, Detroit’s secondary has been tested this year — if the Packers can sustain drives against Detroit’s personnel, the Lions will counterpunch. Add in special teams/return angles and a couple of red-zone possessions, and you quickly approach the mid- to high-40s. Finally, books have priced the total around 49, which means the market already anticipates a shootout; the public is pricing points in — we’re just formalizing the bet on the underlying matchups and pace.

Packers vs. Lions Picks & Predictions

Play: OVER 48.5
Reason: Both teams possess the offensive firepower and pace to hit this number; Ford Field’s indoor setting removes weather as a dampener, and injury reports currently show starters trending toward playing, meaning both units will likely be near full offensive capacity. The matchup incentives (divisional rivalry, Thanksgiving audience, playoff positioning) point toward anyone-coaches-want-to-win behavior — aggressive calls, fewer conservative clock-kills, more possessions.
Final score: Lions 28 — Packers 24

Responsible Gaming

For help and resources, visit our Responsible Gaming page or the National Council on Problem Gambling.

Affiliate Disclosure

We may receive affiliate commissions if you sign up through links on our site. Read our full Affiliate Disclosure.