Two winless AFC South teams meet at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon, and the market still cannot settle on which one deserves to be favored. Houston sits at -1.5 on the road after opening at -2.5, and the total has dropped three and a half points since it went up. Both teams are 0-2, and both have a case that the other is the more broken operation. One side of this short number offers the better price, and the total may carry even more value than the side.
Last Updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis Indiana |
| When | Sunday, September 27 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | CBS |
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview
Neither team has won yet, and neither lost to a soft opponent. Indianapolis dropped its opener at home to Baltimore 41-23, then lost 33-30 in overtime at Kansas City. Houston fell at Buffalo in Week 1 after scoring 31 points, then got held to six points in a Week 2 home loss to Cincinnati. Jacksonville, at 1-1, is the only AFC South club with a win. The loser on Sunday leaves at 0-3 and 0-1 in division play.
Daniel Jones runs the Indianapolis offense. C.J. Stroud starts for Houston. The bigger lineup story is at receiver. Nico Collins is out with a hamstring injury for a second straight week, and the split in Houston’s production with and without him is stark — 31 points in the opener, six last Sunday. Houston is also without Jadeveon Clowney (knee), Jake Hummel (groin), Ed Ingram (groin) and M.J. Stewart (knee), while tackle Trent Brown is questionable.
Indianapolis has its own absences. Alec Pierce (heel) and Ashton Dulin (ankle) are out, and cornerback Charvarius Ward is questionable with a groin issue. The defense is the real problem, though. Through two weeks the Colts rank last in the league in yards allowed per game, yards per play and points allowed, surrendering 514.5 total yards per game and 74 points across two outings. Houston’s defense has been better but not dominant, giving up 28 points per game.
Recent history belongs firmly to the visitors. Houston has won five straight in this series, including a 38-30 result in Week 18 last season.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | -1.5 (-115) | -125 | Over 42 (-115) |
| Colts | +1.5 (-105) | +105 | Under 42 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of September 27, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Texans | 46% | 54% | Colts |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Texans vs. Colts Prediction — Does the Short Road Number Hold Up?
Start with the movement, because it shows where the resistance is. Houston opened at -2.5 and has been bought down to -1.5, with the juice shifting to -115 on the favorite. Spread bets sit close to even at 54 percent on Indianapolis. That is not a lopsided public position, so there is no obvious crowd to fade. It is simply a market that has trimmed a road favorite below the key number of two.
The case for Indianapolis rests on scoring. The Colts put up 23 on Baltimore and 30 on Kansas City, which is 26.5 points per game against two of the better defenses in the conference. They also had the ball in overtime last week with a chance to win. Add home field and a number under two points, and a team that has produced offense against good units is getting treated like an afterthought against a Houston offense that managed six points a week ago.
The counterargument is real. Houston has won five consecutive meetings in this series, several of them in Indianapolis. Stroud should find more room than he did against Cincinnati, since the Colts defense has been the least efficient in the league by yardage. If the receivers behind Collins get untracked at all, Houston can win this by more than a field goal. Still, we prefer the points with the team that has actually scored.
The Pick: Colts +1.5 (-105)
Texans vs. Colts Prediction — Can Two Winless Teams Put Points on the Board?
The number has come a long way down. This total opened at 45.5 and now sits at 42, a three-and-a-half point move driven almost entirely by what Houston did, or failed to do, without its top receiver. That reaction looks a step too far. Indianapolis has played in two games that finished with 64 and 63 combined points, and its defense has allowed 514.5 yards per game. Get the Colts to their season average and Houston only needs the high teens for this to clear.
The under case is straightforward: Houston scored six points last week, Collins is out again, and the Texans defense has shown enough to smother a middling opponent. If Stroud has another afternoon like the Cincinnati game, this never gets close. We think Houston’s floor was a product of a strong Bengals front rather than a permanent condition. Our Colts vs. Chiefs prediction flagged the same scoring environment last week.
The Pick: Over 42 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is a third way to play the same read. Indianapolis is available at +105 on the moneyline, better than even money for a home team in a game the market prices as a coin flip. If the Colts are live to win outright, and a 1.5-point spread says the market thinks so, the moneyline pays more for nearly the same opinion. The trade-off is the cushion: a one-point Houston win turns a winning spread ticket into a loser.
The broader picture is that both teams arrive desperate, and the AFC South is forgiving enough that neither is out of the race at 0-3. That situational pressure usually shows up as aggression rather than caution, which supports the scoring side of this card. For more of this week’s card, see our latest NFL picks coverage.
Recapping all three positions: Colts +1.5 (-105) against the spread, Over 42 (-115) on the total, and Colts +105 on the moneyline as the bonus angle.
NFL Texans vs. Colts FAQ: Sunday September 27, 2026
What time does the Texans vs. Colts game start?
Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 27, 2026, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. It is one of the early-window games on the Week 3 schedule, so it starts alongside the bulk of Sunday’s slate rather than in a standalone national window.
What channel is the Texans vs. Colts game on?
The game airs on CBS. Tom McCarthy has the play-by-play call with Robert Turbin on color analysis and Tiffany Blackmon reporting from the sideline. Local radio coverage runs through the Indianapolis affiliates and Houston’s team radio network.
Who won the last meeting between the Texans and Colts?
Houston won the most recent meeting 38-30 in Week 18 of the 2025 season. That result extended a run that now stands at five consecutive Texans wins in the series, including both meetings last season.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Texans and Colts?
C.J. Stroud starts for Houston and Daniel Jones starts for Indianapolis. Both have opened the season 0-2, and both offenses have been inconsistent, though Jones and the Colts have produced more points through two weeks than Stroud and the Texans have.