Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start since tearing his ACL last November when the winless Atlanta Falcons visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football. Green Bay opened as a 7-point favorite, but the Packers are now laying 5.5 points in their home opener at Lambeau Field. The total has also slipped from 44 to 43. Below, we break down the injuries shaping this number and where we see value in our Falcons vs. Packers prediction.
Last Updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| When | Thursday, September 24 – 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Atlanta’s offense has barely functioned through two weeks. The Falcons lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh in the opener, then fell 34-3 to Carolina in Week 2. That adds up to just 16 points, and Atlanta has yet to run a single play inside an opponent’s 20-yard line. Cooper Rush started both games while Penix and Tua Tagovailoa were sidelined. Against Carolina, Rush threw two interceptions and lost a fumble before he was benched in the third quarter.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski named Penix the starter earlier this week, and he was a full practice participant. Tagovailoa, who has dealt with an oblique injury since before the opener, will serve as the backup. Penix now gets Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts around him. Still, Penix has not played a regular-season snap since November. On defense, Atlanta will be without edge rusher Samson Ebukam (hamstring).
Green Bay sits at 1-1, but neither result was clean. The Packers led 22-17 early in the fourth quarter at Minnesota, then allowed the final 22 points in a 39-22 loss. In Week 2, they rallied from a 17-7 deficit to beat the Jets 20-17 in overtime. Green Bay has been flagged 26 times for 231 yards, the most in the league. The offense also ranks last on third down at 19.1 percent.
The Packers’ final injury report adds pressure on Jordan Love. Left guard Aaron Banks and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele are both out, leaving the offensive line shorthanded. Receiver Jayden Reed (neck) is also ruled out, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is questionable. Meanwhile, running back Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner’s exempt list. Micah Parsons is still on the reserve/PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | +5.5 (-115) | +210 | U 43 (-110) |
| Packers | -5.5 (-105) | -250 | O 43 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Thursday, September 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Falcons | 46% | 54% | Packers |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Falcons vs. Packers Prediction — Can Penix Keep Atlanta Within Striking Distance?
The market has moved toward Atlanta. Green Bay opened as a touchdown favorite at -320 on the moneyline, and both numbers have come down since. That move came in a week when Atlanta named Penix its starter and Green Bay ruled out two offensive linemen. Spread bettors are close to split, with 54 percent on the Packers. However, 92 percent of moneyline bets back Green Bay to win outright. The public expects a Packers win but doubts the margin.
The case for the underdog starts with Green Bay’s offense. The Packers keep stalling on third down, keep drawing flags, and now protect Love with a patched-together line. Their Week 2 win needed a 63-yard punt return from Skyy Moore and a field goal in overtime. In a game totaled in the low 40s, every point of cushion matters.
The case against Atlanta is just as real. The Falcons have not reached the red zone. Penix is also making his first start in more than 10 months, on the road and in prime time. Green Bay has won 13 straight home openers, tied for the NFL record. Love has a proven big-play target in Christian Watson, who has three touchdown catches in two games. If the Packers clean up the penalties, they can pull away late. Even so, we trust the cushion more than Green Bay’s offense to create separation.
The Pick: Falcons +5.5 (-115)
Falcons vs. Packers Prediction — Will Either Offense Find Its Footing?
The total opened a point higher and has come down since. Atlanta has scored 16 points in two games, and its wide receivers and tight ends have yet to catch a touchdown. Green Bay’s third-down woes and penalties keep killing drives. Neither of Atlanta’s first two games produced more than 37 combined points.
The over does have a path. Green Bay’s opener at Minnesota produced 61 points, and Penix could add a downfield element that Atlanta has lacked. Still, a rusty quarterback, a shorthanded offensive line, and two sloppy offenses point toward a grind at Lambeau.
The Pick: Under 43 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
For bettors who like Atlanta’s side, the Falcons moneyline offers a higher-risk way to play it. The +210 price implies roughly a 32 percent chance of an outright upset, down from +260 at open. If Penix delivers steady quarterback play, the Falcons can stay close into the fourth quarter. The risk is obvious, though. Atlanta has not shown it can finish drives, so this angle deserves a smaller stake than the spread.
Bonus Pick: Falcons Moneyline (+210)
Here are our Falcons vs. Packers picks for Thursday night. For more matchups, check out our latest NFL picks coverage.
- Spread: Falcons +5.5 (-115)
- Total: Under 43 (-110)
- Bonus: Falcons Moneyline (+210)
NFL Falcons vs. Packers FAQ: Thursday September 24, 2026
What time does the Falcons vs. Packers game start?
The Falcons vs. Packers game kicks off at 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, September 24, 2026, which is 7:15 PM local time in Green Bay. Both teams are working on a short week after playing on Sunday, and the game is Green Bay’s first home contest of the regular season.
What channel is the Falcons vs. Packers game on?
The Falcons vs. Packers game streams nationally on Prime Video as the Week 3 edition of Thursday Night Football. Kickoff from Lambeau Field is set for 8:15 PM ET, with Michael Penix Jr. returning at quarterback for Atlanta against Jordan Love and the Packers.
Where are the Falcons and Packers playing?
The Falcons and Packers are playing at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. This is the Packers’ regular-season home opener after they started the season with road games at Minnesota and the New York Jets. Green Bay enters the night with 13 consecutive home-opener wins.
Who won the last meeting between the Falcons and Packers?
The Falcons won the last meeting, beating the Packers 25-24 on September 17, 2023, in Atlanta. Green Bay still leads the all-time series 19-17, a count that includes four postseason meetings. Thursday’s game is the first matchup between the teams since that one-point finish.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Falcons and Packers?
Michael Penix Jr. starts at quarterback for the Falcons, and Jordan Love starts for the Packers. Penix returns from a torn ACL for his first game of the 2026 season after Cooper Rush started Atlanta’s first two games. Tua Tagovailoa, who missed both games with an oblique injury, serves as the backup.