Bills vs Dolphins Expert Pick — Preview & Lean (Week 10)

Bills vs. Patriots Bills vs. Patriots
MIAMI GARDENS, FL — Buffalo heads south for a Week 10 divisional test against Miami at Hard Rock Stadium, with a Bills team hitting their stride and Miami holding on for dear life. The board is parked around Bills −9.5 (−110) with a 50 total (O −105 / U −115) and moneylines near Bills −585 / Dolphins +410. With kickoff at Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS, our Bills vs Dolphins expert picks isolate quarter and half winners to try to narrow the unpredictability of this Week 10 matchup.

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Bills vs Dolphins Odds — Week 10

Team Spread Total ML
Buffalo Bills −9.5 (−110) 50 (O −105 / U −115) −585
Miami Dolphins +9.5 (−110) 50 (O −105 / U −115) +410

Bills vs Dolphins Expert Picks

Play 1: 1st Quarter Under 9.5 (−110) — Buffalo’s defense compresses explosives early and Miami’s opening script prioritizes efficiency over vertical aggression; early drives can trade touchdowns for field goals.

Play 2: 2nd Half Bills −3.5 (−110) — If Buffalo wins field position, the favorite’s pass-rush and situational offense tend to compound later; isolating the final 30 minutes avoids full-game spread variance while aligning with market posture.

Want more Bills vs Dolphins? Read our full Bills vs Dolphins Betting Preview here.

Who is The Public Betting – Week 10

Team % of Bets Open Current
Buffalo Bills 81% −5.5 (−110) −9.5 (−110)
Miami Dolphins 19% +5.5 (−110) +9.5 (−110)

Market Read: The ticket split is heavy to Buffalo (~81%) and the spread climbed four points from −5.5 to −9.5. That pairing often indicates broad market agreement — not just a public wave — because sharper money typically resists multi-point moves if the price is wrong. For Miami to flip this, they likely need multiple explosives or +EV takeaways; if Buffalo manages explosives and controls field position, the favorite’s structure tends to hold.

Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.

Before You Bet Notes

  • The spread’s jump from −5.5 to −9.5 suggests sustained support across the week rather than a day-of steam only.
  • Pass-rush vs. protection is the leverage point; pressure rate tends to suppress Miami’s explosive rate when Buffalo dictates tempo.
  • Total at 50 with slight juice to the Under aligns with a favorite-led script: fewer drives, shorter fields, lower volatility.

How to Watch Bills vs Dolphins

  • 📅 Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • 📺 TV: CBS
  • 🏟 Venue: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL
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