Last Updated on September 6, 2025 7:46 am by Michael Cash
Week 2 ramps up with prime-time showdowns and early Big Ten revenge angles. Michigan heads to Norman, Kansas and Missouri reignite a border feud, and Penn State opens conference play with a steamroll-threat over FIU. Read on for three expert best bets, two high-upside long shots, public betting insight, and today’s full card to build your sharp edge.
Today’s Top 3 Best Bets
- Michigan +5.5 at Oklahoma (7:30 pm ET)
Pick Analysis: Sharp bettors are backing Michigan heavily despite public leaning Oklahoma. The line tightened to –5.5, yet early support for Michigan suggests value. Michigan’s turnover margin and disciplined play make them a strong road cover.
Public Ticket Split: Likely heavier on Oklahoma; value may lie with Michigan.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Illinois −2.5 at Duke (12:00 pm ET)
Pick Analysis: Public tickets and sharp money are backing Illinois here—79% of bets, 96% of money. High confidence in the Illini’s improving offense and Duke’s new QB makes the road favorite a strong ATS option.
Public Snapshot: 79% tickets, 96% handle on Illinois.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Iowa State −3.5 vs Iowa (12:00 pm ET)
Pick Analysis: Cy-Hawk rivalry at home with line steepening from -2.5 to -3.5, with balanced public action and pressure on Iowa’s offense. Iowa State’s home trends and offensive rhythm give them the edge.
Public Movement: Sharp action fading Iowa.
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Value Long Shots
- Ole Miss −10 vs Kentucky (3:30 pm ET)
Why It’s Tempting: The spread has evolved closer to 10 but public may be underestimating Ole Miss’s edge. Kentucky’s Week 1 offense looked shaky; Rebels can dominate on both lines.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Kansas State ML vs Missouri (12:00 pm ET)
Why It’s Tempting: Rivalry games often defy expectations. Kansas State’s disciplined defense and tempo can flip this border thriller—even at longer odds.
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Quick Trends & Notes
- Sharp flow on Michigan and Illinois: These picks show contrarian money versus public lean, indicating expert value.
- Spread inflation in rivalries: Lines like −3.5 for Iowa State and −10 for Ole Miss reflect attention—but still may offer fade opportunities.
- Money over tickets: Public betting chart often lags, but sharp handle data (e.g. Illinois) tells the real story.
- Early-season volatility: Week 2 lines reflect Week 1 momentum—be cautious on offensive totals as systems settle in.
Public Betting Snapshot
- Michigan vs Oklahoma: Public favored Oklahoma; sharp action on Michigan.
- Illinois vs Duke: Illinois backed with 79% of tickets and a massive 96% of money.
- Iowa State vs Iowa: Tickets evenly split; handle favors Iowa State.
- Ole Miss vs Kentucky: Public leans Kentucky; larger sharp bets on Ole Miss.
- Kansas State vs Missouri: Rivalry pricing, public split; insiders backing K-State.