Tuscaloosa, Ala. — It’s another Third Saturday in October with national implications as No. 6 Alabama hosts No. 11 Tennessee under the lights on ABC. The Tide are favored with Alabama vs Tennessee odds settling around 8.5 with a total of 59.
Both sides bring a clear identity: Alabama’s third-down havoc rate leads the SEC, while Tennessee’s explosive-play offense ranks among the league’s best. Momentum, playoff position, and bragging rights are on the line in a rivalry that still defines the fall South.
For full Week 8 opening lines and early market movement, see our College Football Week 8 Odds Hub.
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Alabama vs Tennessee Odds – Current
Spread: Tennessee +8.5 (−110) / Alabama −8.5 (−110)
Total: Over 59 (−110) / Under 59 (−110)
Moneyline: Tennessee +255 / Alabama −310
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Matchup breakdown & edges
Alabama’s defense continues to generate havoc on money downs — the Tide have forced a punt or turnover on 71% of opponent third-downs since Week 5, leaning on disguised pressures and interior penetration. Tennessee’s task is sustaining drives with an offense that ranks top-10 nationally in explosive-rate plays of 20+ yards. The Vols’ tempo can create stress on Alabama’s coverage rotations, but negative-yardage snaps remain their undoing. Quarterback rhythm against pressure will determine whether this stays competitive into the fourth quarter.
Offensively, Alabama’s balance has sharpened behind a line that’s cleaned up early-season protection leaks. Expect heavy play-action paired with designed quarterback movement to keep Tennessee’s edge rushers honest. If the Tide maintain efficiency on early downs, they can control game script and limit the Vols’ tempo opportunities.
Alabama vs Tennessee Market behavior & how to bet it
The spread opened near −8 and stabilized, with public money leaning Alabama. Sharper buy-back could appear if +9s surface, given the key-number proximity. The total of 59 hinges on explosive realization — if Tennessee hits chunk plays early, pace increases; if Alabama’s front wins early downs, under tickets strengthen as possessions shrink. For timing your entry, see our guides on closing line value (CL V) and how to shop the best lines, and check our college football public betting guide for sentiment trends.
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Alabama vs Tennessee prediction & expert pick
Lean: Alabama −8.5 (−110). The Tide’s defensive front should win third-down leverage, forcing Tennessee into longer fields and limiting explosive volume. Secondary Lean: Under 59 if Alabama dictates tempo through sustained drives and pressure efficiency.
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