Last Updated on August 28, 2023 12:35 pm by Alex Becker
Notre Dame Win Total Prediction
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish had a pretty good season last year. Notre Dame went 9-4 with their season culminating in a 45-38 Gator Bowl win over South Carolina.
Can the Fighting Irish surpass their regular season win total from last season in 2023?
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 -120
Under 8.5 +100
2022 Season Recap
Notre Dame appeared headed for disaster early last season. 2022 was Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman’s first year at the helm, and he opened the campaign with back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Marshall. With the season teetering on the brink, the Irish managed to rally and win 8 of their next 9 contests before ultimately falling to USC in the final game of the regular season. Notre Dame’s offense was 44th in yards per play last season, but that ranking should be better this year with their new quarterback Sam Hartman. The Irish defense was 27th in opponent yards per play last season, but they lost edge rusher Isaiah Foskey to the NFL. Can Notre Dame win 9 regular season games in 2023?
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: TE Michael Mayer, DE Isaiah Foskey, C Jarrett Patterson, QB Drew Pyne, QB Tyler Buchner, WR Lorenzo Styles, DL Jacob Lacey, RB Logan Diggs
Key Player Additions: QB Sam Hartman, DL Javontae Jean-Baptiste, DB Thomas Harper, S Antonio Carter II, WR Rico Flores Jr., WR Jaden Greathouse, LB Jaiden Ausberry
The biggest change for Notre Dame will be at the most important position on the field: quarterback. The Fighting Irish were led by third-year signal-caller Drew Pyne last season, but he’s since transferred to Arizona State. Notre Dame’s backup QB Tyler Buchner also transferred, and he’s on Alabama now. The Fighting Irish brought in former Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman to run their offense, and it was one of the biggest transfer portal moves of the offseason. Hartman was second in the ACC in passing yards last season with 3,701, and he tied for the conference lead in passing touchdowns with 38. On its face, this may seem like a slam-dunk move for Notre Dame, but it’s worth noting that Hartman has suffered multiple injuries causing him to miss time over his career and he’s thrown 26 interceptions in 26 games over the past two seasons. How he plays against elite competition will likely determine Notre Dame’s ceiling in 2023.
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On defense, the Fighting Irish lost two of their top eight sack men from last season. Edge rusher Isaiah Foskey led the team with 11 sacks, but he moved on to the NFL. Irish defensive lineman Jacob Lacey notched a pair of sacks last season, but he transferred to Oklahoma. Notre Dame replaced Foskey with graduate transfer defensive lineman Javontae Jean-Baptiste. Jean-Baptiste recorded 4 sacks and 19 total tackles in 13 games for the Ohio State Buckeyes last season. He’ll have some big shoes to fill in 2023, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to match the production that Foskey offered at the defensive end spot in 2022. In the secondary, Notre Dame added starting nickel back Thomas Harper as a graduate transfer from Oklahoma State and backup strong safety Antonio Carter II as a grad transfer from Rhode Island. Notre Dame’s defense was 22nd in the country in opponent yards per pass attempt last season, but their pass defense may not be as good this year. Notre Dame’s back-end defenders will likely have their hands full for most of the year because I believe that the Irish will struggle to consistently fluster the passer for most of the season.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, special teams coordinator Brian Mason, offensive line coach Harry Hiestand, graduate assistant coach James Laurinaitis
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator/tight ends coach Gerad Parker (promotion), quarterbacks coach Gino Guidugli, special teams coordinator Marty Biagi, offensive line coach Joe Rudolph, graduate assistant coach Max Bullough
Notre Dame lost two of their coordinators this offseason from a staff that couldn’t really afford to lose anyone, in my opinion. The biggest and most impactful change is Fighting Irish offensive coordinator Tommy Rees leaving to become the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Alabama. If Nick Saban wanted him, that means he’s likely a very good coach. Rees probably left because he was passed over for the Notre Dame head coaching vacancy that opened up when former Irish coach Brian Kelly left for LSU. There were even reports that Tommy Rees had an offer to go with Kelly to LSU, but in the end, he turned it down to remain with the Irish. Rees had Notre Dame’s offense humming last year to the tune of 31.8 points per game with an average quarterback. His loss will likely be felt greatly in South Bend in 2023.
Because Tommy Rees left, Notre Dame was essentially forced to hire an extra coach to perform the duties that Rees was handling. The Fighting Irish promoted tight ends coach Gerad Parker to offensive coordinator and hired former Cincinnati quarterback Gino Guidugli to coach the quarterbacks in 2023. Guidugli was the quarterbacks coach for Cincinnati for the past five seasons and even held the title of offensive coordinator last year. It’s a bit puzzling that Notre Dame didn’t simply hire him to be the offensive coordinator for this year, but he’ll team up with former West Virginia offensive coordinator Gerad Parker. Notre Dame likely brought in QB Sam Hartman so that the offense could be good right away, but I have my doubts that things will come easy for the former Demon Deacon in his first and likely only year as the signal-caller in South Bend.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
While Notre Dame is technically an independent, they play a small slate of ACC games each year. The Fighting Irish will play 6 ACC games in 2023, and they’ll likely win the majority of them. The toughest ACC games Notre Dame will play will likely be at North Carolina State in Week 2, home against Pittsburgh in Week 8, and on the road against Clemson in Week 10. But it’s the Irish’s non-conference schedule that makes it the 18th hardest in the country if you go by last year’s records.
Notre Dame will play Navy in Dublin in Week 0 on August 26th. The Irish will then be home for Ohio State in Week 4 and home for USC in Week 7. Notre Dame will then finish out the year on the road against Stanford in the last week of the regular season. I have Notre Dame losing to Ohio State, USC, and Clemson. They would only have to lose one more game to cash the under, and I believe that that will happen at some point. It’s worth keeping in mind that should Irish QB Sam Hartman get hurt at any point, there are two freshmen and a sophomore behind him on the depth chart, and the offensive wizardry of Tommy Rees is in Tuscaloosa now, not South Bend. Notre Dame was close to falling off last season, and I believe that they won’t win ¾ of their regular season games in 2023. I’m on the under.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH UNDER 8.5 WINS +100