Last Updated on August 31, 2023 12:04 pm by Alex Becker
Alabama Win Total Prediction
The Alabama Crimson Tide had a small letdown in 2022. Alabama went 11-2, failed to make the SEC Championship Game, then smoked Kansas State 45-20 in the Sugar Bowl.
With Bryce Young gone can the Crimson Tide finish the regular season with one loss or fewer in 2023?
Alabama Crimson Tide Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 10 -155
Under 10 +130
2022 Season Recap
Alabama was a few plays away from potentially going undefeated in 2022. The Crimson Tide only lost two games all season. The first was at Tennessee on a last-second field goal, and the second was at LSU on a game-winning two-point conversion. Despite having an average scoring margin of +22 points per game, Alabama finished the regular season 10-2 and missed out on the SEC Championship Game via the tiebreaker with LSU. Alabama Heisman-Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young was great for the Tide last year as he threw for 3,328 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions while achieving a passer rating of 163.2. Young was the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and Alabama will be hard-pressed to replace his poise in the pocket and his penchant for precision passing. The scoring metrics were solid for Alabama last year as they ranked third in the nation in points per play margin and seventh in yards per point margin, but they lost several players to the NFL and the transfer portal. Alabama might not be the dominant team in the SEC anymore, and 2023 will likely bear that out on the field.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB Bryce Young, LB Will Anderson Jr., RB Jahmyr Gibbs, S Brian Branch, OT Tyler Steen, DT Byron Young, S Jordan Battle, TE Cameron Latu, LB Henry To’o To’o, S DeMarcco Hellams, DT DJ Dale
Key Player Additions: LT Kadyn Proctor, TE C.J. Dippre, LB Trezmen Marshall, SS Jaylen Key, FS Caleb Downs, WR Malik Benson, RT Wilkin Formby, QB Tyler Buchner, CB Trey Amos, EDGE Keon Keeley
Alabama lost 10 players to the NFL Draft, which was tied for the most with Georgia. The Crimson Tide lost starters and impact players that they will likely sorely miss. Aside from Bryce Young, Alabama lost otherworldly edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., and running back Jahmyr Gibbs who amassed 1,370 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns last season. Along the offensive line, Alabama lost tackle Tyler Steen, guard Emil Ekiyor Jr., and guard Kendall Randolph to the NFL Draft. Additionally, the Tide lost tackles Tommy Brockermeyer and Amari Knight and interior offensive lineman Javion Cohen to the transfer portal. As a result, the Crimson Tide will likely start three underclassmen along the offense line in 2023. That combined with the Tide’s probable inexperience at QB (projected starter Jalen Milroe has thrown 60 career passes) could mean the offense may not be excellent this season.
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The defense should be fine like it usually is as Alabama brought in former UAB safety Jaylen Key to take over the strong safety spot to replace the departed Jordan Battle. There will likely be a freshman starting at free safety for Alabama this season as Caleb Downs enters the fray to replace last year’s free safety and current Atlanta Falcon DeMarcco Hellams. The Crimson Tide’s secondary has the potential to be shaky this season as they are starting a pair of underclassmen who may struggle to replace the defensive backs that Alabama had in 2022. On the whole, the defense should be stronger than the offense for Alabama, but that might not end up meaning much.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien, defensive coordinator/inside linebackers coach Pete Golding, associate defensive coordinator/safeties coach Charles Kelly
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Tommy Rees, defensive coordinator Kevin Steele, assistant head coach of offense/wide receivers coach Holmon Wiggins (promotion)
Alabama head coach Nick Saban lost his offensive coordinator, his defensive coordinator, and his associate defensive coordinator this offseason. Former Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien had the Alabama offense moving down the field last season as they ranked seventh in the country in yards per play. O’Brien is now the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for the New England Patriots. In his stead, Saban elected to bring in former Notre Dame offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Tommy Rees. Rees is only 31 years old and has only been an offensive coordinator for three years. He now holds one of the toughest coaching positions in college football: Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator. Under Rees, Notre Dame’s offense ranked 34th in the nation in yards per pass attempt and 44th in yards per rushing attempt last year while working with less-than-elite talent at the quarterback and running back spots. When it comes to devising an explosive Alabama offense, that might be a tall task and a big ask for Tommy Rees in his first year in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama defensive coordinator Pete Golding left to become the defensive coordinator and inside linebackers coach at Ole Miss while associate defensive coordinator/safeties coach Charles Kelly moved on to Colorado where he’ll be the Buffaloes’ defensive coordinator and safeties coach in 2023. As his new defensive coordinator, Nick Saban tabbed former Miami DC Kevin Steele for the role. Steele has over 40 years of college football and NFL coaching experience, and he’s one of the few men who truly understands what Nick Saban is looking for when it comes to recruiting defensive players and crafting a defensive scheme. In 2023 Steele will begin his third stint as a member of the Alabama coaching staff, and all three of those stints have come under current head coach Nick Saban. It seems safe to say that Saban felt he had to go with someone he knew to run his defense because he went with the relative unknown of Tommy Rees as his OC/QB coach. Alabama lost several players on defense to the NFL Draft and 2023 will be a true test for Nick Saban and Kevin Steele as they try to cobble together a unit that can get stops in the most competitive conference division in the NCAA.
NCAA Football Over/Under Prediction
According to College Football News, Alabama has the sixth-hardest schedule in college football this year. The first three-fourths of the Crimson Tide’s schedule is brutal as in their first nine games they have to play Texas at home, Ole Miss at home, Texas A&M on the road, and Tennessee and LSU at home. It’s quite possible and maybe even probable that Alabama could have two losses by the end of that stretch. If they do, the worst you could do is push as the Crimson Tide could finish with 10 wins at most in that scenario.
Alabama also lost 10 players to the NFL Draft this past offseason in addition to both of their coordinators and their associate defensive coordinator leaving. There’s just too much turnover for the Tide to finish with a near-flawless record, in my opinion. The SEC West is the most strenuous division in all of college football, and the Crimson Tide will be extremely fortunate to reach the Iron Bowl at Auburn in the final game of the regular season with two or fewer losses. I know it seems crazy to bet against Nick Saban, but the rest of the SEC has gotten better while Alabama (compared to last year) has gotten tangibly worse. The odds aren’t great, but I can’t see Alabama going 11-1 in the regular season and even 10-2 seems like a lot to ask. I’m on the under of 10 wins for the Crimson Tide in 2023.
NCAA FOOTBALL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE UNDER 10 WINS +130