Saturday CBB Best Bets Dec. 13: Can UCLA hang with Gonzaga?

Can Kentucky play well and cover against Indiana? Can Arizona get a big, ranked win over Alabama in Birmingham? Will UCLA prevent a blowout against Gonzaga in Seattle? Read on for our Saturday CBB Best Bets Dec. 13 column.

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CBB Best Bet: Indiana +3.5 over Kentucky

I like the Hoosiers here. Indiana should cover the 3.5 points against Kentucky because their efficient, up-tempo offense and strong defense should keep them competitive throughout. KenPom currently rates Indiana’s offensive and defensive efficiency nearly on par with Kentucky’s this season, with both teams posting similar adjusted offensive and defensive numbers, suggesting a tight contest rather than a blowout. Indiana pushes the pace and generates high-quality shots, while their defense limits scoring opportunities and forces contested shot attempts. That combination makes it hard for Kentucky to create a large margin. Of note: Indiana is 8-2 straight up and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Final score projection: INDIANA 80, KENTUCKY 78.

CBB Best Bet: Arizona -1.5 over Alabama

I’m backing Arizona in this one. Arizona should cover the 1.5-point spread against Alabama because this matchup sets up as a fast-paced, offense-driven game where Arizona’s efficiency edge could prove to be the difference late. Both teams want to run, but Arizona’s offense is more balanced and efficient in the half-court, converting at a high rate from the paint and perimeter while limiting empty possessions. Defensively, Arizona is better equipped to contest shots without fouling, which is key against Alabama’s pace and spacing. In a game where both teams trade runs, Arizona’s shot quality and execution down the stretch separate them. Final note: Arizona is 7-5 ATS in neutral-site games since the start of last season. Final score projection: ARIZONA 86, ALABAMA 83.

CBB Best Bet: UCLA +10.5 over Gonzaga

I’m taking the Bruins here. UCLA should cover the 10.5 points against Gonzaga because their slower, controlled pace and defensive efficiency can shorten the game and limit Gonzaga’s ability to create a big lead. The Bruins are comfortable grinding possessions, contesting shots, and forcing opponents to work deep into the clock, which keeps scoring margins tight. Offensively, UCLA’s ball movement and shot selection help avoid the prolonged droughts that lead to blowouts. If they control tempo and defend the glass, Gonzaga is unlikely to pull away. Of note: UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Gonzaga. Final score projection: UCLA 78, GONZAGA 76.