Nuggets vs Heat Prediction & Odds
The top-seeded Denver Nuggets remain in Miami to take on the #8-seed Heat on ABC Friday night at 8:30 PM ET in Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals.
Can the Nuggets cover the 3.5-point spread as road favorites?
Denver leads the series 2-1.
The Denver Nuggets went 53-29 in the regular season. They are 14-4 in the playoffs this season. The Nuggets are 55-44-1 ATS on the year.
The Miami Heat went 44-38 in the regular season. They’re 14-9 in the play-in and playoffs this season. The Heat are 45-57-3 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
519 Denver Nuggets (-3.5) at 520 Miami Heat (+3.5); O/U 211
8:30 PM ET, Friday, June 9, 2023
Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Nuggets vs. Heat Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 76% of public bettors are currently backing the Nuggets -3.5 in this contest. Note that these numbers are subject to change, so be sure to check the link to receive the most up-to-date public betting data.
Denver Nuggets DFS Spin
Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray posted a triple-double in his team’s 109-94 Game 3 win on Tuesday. The Kentucky alum went for 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists while shooting 12 of 22 from the field and 3 of 6 from deep. Murray’s two-man game with center Nikola Jokic was lethal in Game 3, and Denver will probably look to that again on Friday.
The biggest surprise in Game 3 was Denver guard Christian Braun. The former Kansas Jayhawk racked up 15 points in 19 minutes while shooing a blistering 7 of 8 from the field. He also played some solid defense against Jimmy Butler. Expect to see more of Christian Braun on Friday, and consider using him in your DFS lineup if you need scoring.
Miami Heat DFS Spin
Miami guard Tyler Herro has officially been ruled out for Game 4 with a broken hand. It’s looking increasingly unlikely that Herro will make it back in time to suit up in the NBA Finals, but Miami has looked quite good without him. Herro averaged 20.1 points per game for the Heat in the regular season.
The Heat will likely look to center Bam Adebayo for some interior scoring punch on Friday. Adebayo recorded 22 points and 17 rebounds in his team’s 109-94 Game 3 loss on Wednesday. He only shot 7 for 21 in that game, but I expect Adebayo to get to the free throw line and shoot a much better percentage from the field in Game 4 on Friday.
Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Betting Trends
Miami is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 day of rest.
Miami is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Miami is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a winning percentage over .600.
The under is 6-1 in Miami’s last 7 games overall.
Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Prediction
All postseason long, the Heat have been great at bouncing back after losses. Miami is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an outright loss. Miami has also been solid on the game’s biggest stage as well as they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NBA Finals games. The Heat are also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. In what will likely be a hard-fought defensive struggle I like Miami to either win this game outright or come very close on Friday.
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: MIAMI HEAT +3.5