With the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers squaring off in a surprising but electric NBA Finals, the NBA Finals MVP race offers some intriguing betting value. Let’s break down the key contenders, the longshots, and where the smart money may lie.
Odds to Win NBA Finals MVP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): -600
Tyrese Haliburton (IND): +700
Pascal Siakam (IND): +1400
Jalen Williams (OKC): +2500
Chet Holmgren (OKC): +7500
Andrew Nembhard (IND): +25000
Alex Caruso (OKC): +30000
Myles Turner (IND): +30000
Aaron Nesmith (IND): +40000
Cason Wallace (OKC): +50000
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC): +50000
Luguentz Dort (OKC): +50000
The Overwhelming Favorite: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-600)
SGA has been the engine behind OKC’s deep playoff run. He’s averaging elite scoring numbers while elevating his teammates, and voters love a clear alpha. If the Thunder win the series—and oddsmakers suggest they likely will—Shai is the runaway favorite to claim Finals MVP. At -600, though, there’s limited betting upside unless you’re stacking him in a parlay or going big.
Verdict: Rightful favorite, but not a great standalone value.
Top Challenger: Tyrese Haliburton (+700)
If Indiana pulls off the upset, Haliburton is the most likely MVP. His combination of scoring and playmaking makes him the face of this Pacers run, and the narrative around him leading a team of underdogs to a title would be compelling to voters.
Verdict: Strong value for Pacers backers. Pair this with a Pacers series win bet for correlated upside.
Mid-Range Sleeper: Pascal Siakam (+1400)
Siakam has the experience and the Finals pedigree (2019 champ, Toronto), and he’s often been Indiana’s most stable performer. If Haliburton has a quieter series or the Pacers win through team effort, Siakam could be the dark horse voters gravitate to.
Verdict: Intriguing hedge for Haliburton MVP bettors or anyone expecting a gritty Pacers win.
Best Longshot: Jalen Williams (+2500)
If you’re looking for value on the OKC side beyond Shai, Williams is your guy. He’s had moments of taking over offensively and could be in line for a big series if defenses overcommit to stopping SGA. If the Thunder win and Shai has merely “very good” stats, Williams at +2500 could pay big.
Verdict: Best value play among OKC players not named Shai.
Extreme Longshots: Worth a Flier?
Chet Holmgren (+7500) could dominate defensively and swing a game or two, but he’d need a standout stat line (e.g., multiple blocks and 15+ PPG) to get voters’ attention.
Andrew Nembhard (+25000) and Alex Caruso (+30000) are fan-favorite role players, but Finals MVP is rarely given for hustle and defense alone.
Luguentz Dort (+50000) is interesting only if he locks up Haliburton and contributes offensively—possible, but not probable.
Verdict: Longshots are fun, but not realistic bets unless you’re sprinkling small amounts for the thrill.
Final Prediction:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins NBA Finals MVP
It’s his award to lose. Unless he gets injured or Haliburton puts together a legendary series and the Pacers win, SGA has the narrative, production, and spotlight needed to seal the deal.
Best Bet:
Tyrese Haliburton (+700) — If you’re fading OKC or just looking for betting value, Haliburton provides the cleanest upside at reasonable odds.