The NASCAR All-Star Race heads to the legendary “Monster Mile” for the first time Sunday afternoon, and the new setting could produce one of the most unpredictable exhibitions in recent memory. Dover Motor Speedway has always rewarded aggressive drivers, elite tire management, and organizations capable of adapting quickly to changing track conditions — and with a brand-new format plus $1 million on the line, the intensity should feel more like a playoff race than an exhibition.
This year’s NASCAR All-Star Race prediction centers around a handful of elite contenders who know how to dominate concrete tracks. Between the unique segment inversions, the resin experiment in the corners, and the pressure-packed final 200-lap sprint, teams will need raw speed and perfect execution to survive.
NASCAR All-Star Race, TIME & HOW TO WATCH | |
|---|---|
| Where | Dover Motor Speedway |
| When | Sunday, May 17, 2026, 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Betting Odds & Public Betting
Even with the All-Star Race’s unpredictable format, the favorites are easy to identify. Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing bring the strongest Dover résumés into the weekend, and several drivers have already shown elite speed on concrete tracks over the past two seasons.
Kyle Larson enters as one of the most dangerous drivers in the field. Larson already owns three All-Star Race victories at three different tracks, making him the only driver in NASCAR history to accomplish that feat. His ability to adapt to changing groove conditions could become critical with fresh resin added to the top and bottom lanes.
Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin arrives with tremendous momentum at Dover after winning the last two points-paying races at the track. Joe Gibbs Racing has mastered the concrete surface recently, and Hamlin’s comments this week made it clear that he plans to attack every segment aggressively rather than conserve equipment.
Joey Logano also deserves serious respect. Few drivers consistently outperform expectations in the All-Star Race like Logano, whose 5.80 average finish is the best among active full-time competitors with multiple starts. His ability to capitalize on chaotic restarts makes him a legitimate threat in the final segment.
NASCAR All-Star Race â TOP ODDS TO WIN | |
|---|---|
| Name | Odds |
| Denny Hamlin | +330 |
| Ryan Blaney | +700 |
| Christopher Bell | +700 |
| Carson Hocevar | +800 |
| Ty Gibbs | +850 |
| Kyle Larson | +850 |
| Tyler Reddick | +900 |
| William Byron | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1400 |
Odds change, get the latest NASCAR Odds - Props
Key Notes & Storylines
Dover’s Concrete Surface Changes Everything
Dover has always been one of NASCAR’s toughest tracks because of its banking transitions and unforgiving concrete surface. Tire wear, long-run balance, and traffic management become major factors over extended green-flag runs.
The added resin introduces another wildcard. If the upper groove develops during the race, aggressive rim-riders like Larson could gain a major advantage late in the event.
Hendrick Motorsports Has the Historical Edge
No organization owns the All-Star Race like Hendrick Motorsports. The team’s 11 All-Star victories lead all organizations, and Hendrick cars have won three of the last six editions of the race.
Larson and Chase Elliott both profile extremely well for Dover’s layout, especially if track position becomes less important than raw pace in the longer final segment.
Joe Gibbs Racing Could Control the Race
Despite Hendrick’s overall All-Star success, Joe Gibbs Racing has quietly become the team to beat at Dover itself. The organization has won the last three points races at the track and continues to unload with elite long-run setups here.
Hamlin’s recent dominance gives JGR a strong chance to continue that trend Sunday.
Last Three Dover Cup Series Winners
Recent Dover races have belonged largely to Joe Gibbs Racing, particularly Hamlin.
- 2025: Denny Hamlin
- 2024: Denny Hamlin
- 2023: Martin Truex Jr.
That stretch reinforces just how strong JGR’s setups have been on concrete tracks entering this weekend.
Drivers to Watch
Kyle Larson
Larson’s ceiling is unmatched in this field. When he finds the preferred groove, he can dominate long green-flag runs better than anyone in NASCAR.
Denny Hamlin
Back-to-back Dover victories make Hamlin impossible to ignore. His experience managing tires and traffic at the Monster Mile is elite.
Ryan Blaney
Blaney’s consistency in All-Star formats keeps him firmly in the mix. He tends to avoid mistakes and positions himself well late in races.
Bubba Wallace
Wallace’s surprisingly strong All-Star average finish stands out. If chaos erupts during the inversions, he could steal a top-five result.
NASCAR All-Star Race Prediction
The unique format creates opportunities for chaos, but the final 200-lap segment still heavily favors elite long-run speed. That points directly toward drivers from Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing.
Hamlin’s recent Dover dominance makes him an obvious contender, but Kyle Larson’s adaptability gives him the edge in an exhibition environment where aggressive adjustments and raw talent often decide the outcome. If the high groove becomes viable late, Larson’s ability to attack the wall and create momentum should separate him from the field.
Prediction: Kyle Larson wins the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway.
Projected Top 5 Finish
- Kyle Larson
- Denny Hamlin
- Joey Logano
- Ryan Blaney
- Chase Elliott