Denny Hamlin leads the field to green for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday, November 1, 2026, and he arrives with the most to gain. The 0.526-mile Virginia short track hosts the penultimate round of the Cup Series season. Hamlin starts first after a 19.226-second lap at 98.492 mph, yet he trails Kyle Larson by 73 points with two races left. Below are our picks for this race.
Last Updated: Sunday, November 1, 2026
2026 Xfinity 500 — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Martinsville Speedway, Ridgeway, VA |
| When | Sunday, November 1 – 2:00 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
2026 Xfinity 500 Betting Preview
Martinsville is 500 laps and 263 miles around a paperclip-shaped half-mile, with stages ending on laps 130, 260 and 500. Passing is hard here, so track position and brake management decide the afternoon. That makes qualifying unusually valuable. Hamlin took the pole ahead of Ty Gibbs, Larson, Austin Cindric and Joey Logano, with Ryan Preece sixth and Josh Berry tenth. Chase Briscoe starts 11th and Ryan Blaney 13th. This is race 35 of 36, and under the 2026 cumulative-points format seven drivers remain alive for the title.
The board reflects that. Hamlin is the clear favorite at +250 off the pole, Blaney sits at +550, and Logano and Larson share +850. Larson can clinch the championship today if he leaves 77 or more points clear, since the maximum in one race is 76. That is the biggest market driver of the day. The practice sheet also disagreed with the grid. Preece was fastest on Saturday at 96.612 mph and Ross Chastain posted the best 10-lap average. Our Xfinity 500 odds preview has the full board.
2026 Xfinity 500 — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +250 |
| Ryan Blaney | +550 |
| Joey Logano | +850 |
| Kyle Larson | +850 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1000 |
| Christopher Bell | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1600 |
| William Byron | +1600 |
| Austin Cindric | +2000 |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, November 1, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NASCAR Odds – Props
2026 Xfinity 500 Best Bets
Denny Hamlin (+250) is the pick to win, and the handicapping gets there without leaning on his spot atop the board. Hamlin has six Cup wins at Martinsville, the most of any active driver. Five came from the pole, which is exactly where he starts. At a track where clean air matters more than raw speed, that is an edge rather than a trivia note.
The situation helps too. Hamlin needs to close on Larson before Homestead rather than simply survive, which removes the usual points-racing caution. He finished third at Kansas, fifth at Charlotte and eighth at Talladega, and that Talladega run is why the gap is 73 rather than triple digits after most contenders wrecked out.
The case against is the price. At +250 the implied probability is roughly 28.6 percent in a 37-car field, so the margin is thin. Hamlin was also 28th at Phoenix, a reminder that flat short tracks turn on him too. Gibbs and Larson start right behind him, and losing the lead on an early pit cycle is hard to undo.
Xfinity 500 Predictions Mid-Tier Value Plays
Ryan Preece (+2200) was the fastest car on the property Saturday at 96.612 mph and turned it into a sixth-place start. On a half-mile where overtaking is the hard part, that is a genuine path rather than a hope, and he has been steady with a 13th at Talladega and a 10th at Kansas. The counterweight is real. He has not won on a Cup short track, single-lap pace does not always survive a 130-lap run, and his 28th at Las Vegas shows the floor.
Ross Chastain (+850) to finish as the Top Chevrolet is the second play, a secondary market rather than an outright. Chastain posted the best 10-lap average in practice, the most useful Martinsville metric given how long green-flag runs get, and he has trended up with a fourth at Talladega and a ninth at Phoenix. What makes it wrong is the grid. He qualified 16th while Larson, Byron and Chase Elliott all start inside the top nine at shorter prices.
Long Shot Picks for The 2026 Xfinity 500
Carson Hocevar (+5000) has had the quietest strong month in the Chase field. He was seventh fastest in practice with the second-best 10-lap average behind Chastain, and he has finished 12th at Las Vegas, 14th at Charlotte, 12th at Phoenix and sixth at Talladega. He starts 25th, which is the problem. He needs a clean opening stage, strategy that breaks his way and one of the late restarts Martinsville produces often. Climbing 20-plus spots is a real ask, but the long-run speed makes it plausible.
Josh Berry (+2000) to win Stage 2 is the second long shot, a stage market rather than an outright. Berry was second fastest in practice, had a top-five 10-lap average and starts 10th, with Stage 2 running from lap 131 to 260. That gives him a full cycle of green-flag running to work forward. For it to land, the Stage 1 leaders have to pit off sequence or get shuffled. A caution-free stage likely ends the ticket.
The Last Word on the 2026 Xfinity 500
Everything here points back to track position. Hamlin on the pole is the most defensible outright on the board, while Preece and Hocevar offer two ways to profit from practice speed the grid did not reward. Watch the first pit cycle. If the leaders stay in sequence, the front row should control the afternoon and Chastain’s long-run advantage never gets a stage to use. If an early caution scrambles strategy, the stage markets get interesting. Also watch how hard Larson races, because the title can be settled today.
NASCAR Xfinity 500 FAQ: Sunday November 1, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the Xfinity 500?
Denny Hamlin is the favorite at +250 to win the 2026 Xfinity 500. Ryan Blaney is next at +550, with Joey Logano and Kyle Larson both at +850 and Ty Gibbs at +1000. Hamlin also starts from the pole.
What time does the Xfinity 500 start?
The Xfinity 500 starts at 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 1, 2026, at Martinsville Speedway. The green flag is expected to wave shortly after 2 p.m., at roughly 2:09 PM ET. NBC pre-race coverage begins at 1:30 PM ET.
What channel is the Xfinity 500 on?
The 2026 Xfinity 500 airs on NBC, with pre-race coverage from 1:30 PM ET. Radio coverage comes from the Motor Racing Network and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. Leigh Diffey, Jeff Burton and Steve Letarte call the race.
How many laps is the Xfinity 500?
The Xfinity 500 is 500 laps around the 0.526-mile Martinsville Speedway oval, a race distance of 263 miles. It is split into three stages. Stage 1 ends on lap 130, Stage 2 on lap 260 and the final stage on lap 500.
Who is on pole for the Xfinity 500?
Denny Hamlin won the pole for the 2026 Xfinity 500 with a lap of 19.226 seconds at 98.492 mph in Saturday qualifying. Ty Gibbs starts second and Kyle Larson third. It is Hamlin’s sixth pole of 2026, a career best.
Who won the Xfinity 500 last year?
William Byron won the 2025 Xfinity 500 at Martinsville on October 26, 2025, leading 304 of 500 laps. Denny Hamlin has the most Martinsville Cup wins among active drivers with six. Richard Petty holds the track record with 15.