This Independence Day sees two of New York’s baseball powerhouses collide once again—Citi Field hosts the third installment of the Subway Series. Both clubs have cooled off recently: the Mets have dipped to 48‑37 following a sluggish 3‑7 stretch, while the Yankees sit at 48‑35, battling a less dramatic yet concerning 4‑6 skid. The result: both teams could use a spark heading into the All‑Star break. What’s the top play in today’s Yankees vs. Mets matchup?
Yankees vs. Mets Game Info
New York Yankees at New York Mets
3:10 p.m. ET, Friday, July 4, 2025
Citi Field, Queens, NY
Yankees vs. Mets Public Betting & Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Mets are -115 moneyline favorites to beat the Yankees, who are -105 underdogs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 9 runs.
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting data page shows that the majority of public bettors are on New York.
Pitching matchup
Marcus Stroman (NYY) takes the mound, sporting a 1‑1 record but an inflated 8.16 ERA over 14 innings.
Paul Blackburn (NYM) counters with a 0‑3 record and a 7.71 ERA through 18.2 innings.
Neither starter has excelled this season, making this game a potential early bullpen showdown. Expect arms from both sides to see action quickly.
Offensive firepower
Both teams feature elite sluggers…
Yankees’ Aaron Judge leads the majors with 31 homers, carrying a .363 average and 70 RBI.
Mets counter with Pete Alonso, who’s blasted 18 homers (.287 AVG), and Juan Soto adding another 20 homers to the mix.
This game isn’t lacking in star potential: Judge and Alonso/Soto make for a thrilling offensive duel.
Bullpen & defense
Yankees’ bullpen has pushed into 79 save situations, converting at a 71.9% rate, though recent inherited runners have scored ~25% of the time.
Mets relievers have been shakier: allowing inherited runners to score nearly 34% of the time and just a 60.5% save rate.
Defensively, both teams are tight: Mets fielding at .987, Yankees at .986.
Key storyline
The Mets hope to right the ship by leaning on their in-season adjustment—Francisco Lindor, who recently earned his fifth All-Star start—and re-energize his lineup. The Yankees, after adding impact bats Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt, have leaned on consistency from Judge and bullpen depth (including closer Clay Holmes) to stay atop their division.
Yankees vs. Mets Betting Prediction
Expect a high-leverage, tightly contested game. The early struggle from both starters points toward relievers playing a key role. But with Judge, Alonso, Soto and Lindor, any early flavor of the ballpark could come from the bats. It’s a classic “big-game, big-city” holiday showdown—perfect for the Fourth.
I’m taking the Mets, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games versus the Yankees.
Yankees vs. Mets MLB PREDICTION: NEW YORK METS -115