It’s a star-spangled evening under the Los Angeles lights as the Houston Astros (51–34) visit the Los Angeles Dodgers (54–32) in a classic showdown between the top two teams in their respective divisions. The Dodgers, currently atop the NL West, are slight favorites at home (currently about –152 moneyline), while Houston enters as modest underdogs (+126). What’s the best bet on this Astros vs. Dodgers matchup?
Astros vs. Dodgers Game Info
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
9:10 p.m. ET, Friday, July 4, 2025
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Astros vs. Dodgers Public Betting & Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Dodgers are -174 moneyline favorites to beat the Astros, who are +146 underdogs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 9 runs.
As of this writing, our MLB Public Betting data page shows that the majority of public bettors are on Los Angeles.
Pitching Matchup
Houston sends Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound, hoping to turn the tide after a rocky stretch. His recent form has been shaky—3.10 IP for 8 ER on June 28 and 5 innings of 4 ER on June 10, though he did flash brilliance with a 6‑strikeout shutout against Pittsburgh on June 3. McCullers, back from Tommy John and posting a 6.61 ERA, will look to harness his mid-season rhythm.
The Dodgers counter with Ben Casparius, a rookie reliever turned spot starter. His small sample size – 64 IP, 3.78 ERA, WHIP 1.198 – suggests he’s been solid, though he’s untested in pressure starts like this.
Offense Spotlight
Houston’s offense is driven by balance. They average 4.2 runs per game (.255/.320/.398 slash) with 209 extra-base hits. Jose Altuve continues to shine, recently passing Jeff Bagwell for second in franchise hits, while heating up with multi-homer games in late May. Yordan Alvarez (.303, 20 HR) and Kyle Tucker (19 HR) also pack power threats, as Houston ranks inside MLB’s top 10 in both batting average and home runs.
Los Angeles counters with elite slugging—5.6 runs per game, .262/.338/.459 slash, and leading the NL in homers (134). Shohei Ohtani is in MVP form (.311, 31 HR, .1.033 OPS) and Freddie Freeman adds consistent production (.288 avg, 16 HR). The Dodgers’ lineup pace and depth make them a tough matchup, even against Houston’s banged-up rotation.
Key Factors
Bullpen Depth: Houston’s relievers have a solid 75% save conversion on 27 saves and a 26.9% inherited-run scoring rate. The Dodgers have 28 saves (70% rate) but less shutdown consistency (24.2% inherited runs score).
Momentum: Both teams enter riding strong form—each is 4–1 in their last five games.
Weather & Atmosphere: Expect a pleasant evening at around 85 °F, light breeze under partly cloudy skies—a perfect setting for fireworks and late-inning drama.
Astros vs. Dodgers Betting Prediction
This is shaping up to be a high-stakes, high-powered affair. Houston needs a solid start from McCullers to keep pace, while the Dodgers will rely on Casparius and their explosive offense. The bullpen could tilt the final innings, but with both lineups in stride, fireworks are likely—just in time for the holiday celebration.
Give me the under, which has cashed in three out of the Astros’ last four games and is 6-3-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games overall, cashing in three straight L.A. games.
Astros vs. Dodgers MLB PREDICTION: UNDER 9