MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, May 15th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Mets @ Diamondbacks
Wheeler is 1-1, 3.16 in his last five starts (over 4-1-1).
Godley is 1-0, 2.25 in two starts this season (over 1-1).
Mets lost last four games, are 4-1 in road series openers. Mets’ last nine road games went over the total. Arizona is 4-7 in its last 11 games, 5-2 in home series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Brewers @ Padres
Anderson is 0-0, 5.87 in his last three starts (over 4-1 in his last five).
Perdomo is 0-1, 4.76 in five starts this year (last three starts stayed under).
Brewers won six of its last seven games; they’re 4-1 in road series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five road games. San Diego lost five of last six games, is 4-2 in home series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.
Dodgers @ Giants
McCarthy is 3-0, 3.10 in five starts this year (under 3-1 in his last four).
Cain is 0-1, 8.78 in his last three starts, all of which went over.
Dodgers won seven of last nine games, are 1-5 in road series openers. Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. San Francisco won three of last four games; they’re 3-2 in home series openers. Under is 13-3-2 in their home games this season.
American League
Rays @ Indians
Archer is 1-0, 1.69 in his last three starts (over 6-2).
Carrasco is 3-1, 1.55 in his last four starts (under 7-0).
Tampa Bay won four of last five road games; they’re 4-2 in road series openers. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Cleveland lost three of last four games; they’re 1-4 in home series openers. Under is 13-3 in their last sixteen games.
White Sox @ Angels
Pelfrey is 0-3, 6.16 in four starts this season (over 2-2).
Chavez is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts (under 4-3).
White Sox won last two games, after losing previous six; they’re 3-3 in road series openers. Over is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Angels are 4-8 in their last 12 games, 3-3 in home series openers. Under is 5-1 in their last six home games.
A’s @ Rangers
Manaea is just off the DL; he is 1-2, 5.92 in five starts this year (over 3-2).
Gallardo is 1-1, 3.47 in his last four starts (under 4-3).
Oakland lost four of its last five games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 games- they’re 1-5 in road series openers. Seattle lost its last four games; they’re 2-5 in road series openers. Over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games.
Interleague
Astros @ Marlins
Musgrove is 1-2, 4.41 in his last three starts (under 4-3).
Straily is 0-2, 4.15 in his last three starts (over 4-3).
Astros played a day/night DH in NYC yesterday; they’re 6-1 in last seven games, 5-1 in road series openers. Over is 8-6 in their last 14 games. Miami lost five of its last six games; they’re 1-5 in home series openers. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Braves @ Blue Jays
Colon is 0-3, 9.55 in his last four starts (over is 5-1 in his last six).
Bolsinger allowed two runs in 5.2 IP (92 PT) in his only ’17 start, a 6-0 loss to Cleveland.
Braves lost seven of last nine games, is 3-5 in road series openers. Three of their last four games stayed under. Toronto won its last five games; they;re 6-1 in last seven series openers. Under is 6-2-1 in their last eight home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
NY-Az: Wheeler 3-3; Godley 1-1
Mil-SD: Anderson 4-3; Perdomo 1-4
LA-SF: McCarthy 4-1; Cain 4-3
American League
TB-Clev: Archer 5-3; Carrasco 5-2
Chi-LA: Pelfrey 1-3; Chavez 2-5
A’s-Sea: Manaea 1-4; Gallardo 2-5
Interleague
Hst-Mia: Musgrove 3-4; Straily 3-4
Atl-Tor: Colon 3-4; Bolsinger 0-1
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
NY-Az: Wheeler 4-7; Godley 0-2
Mil-SD: Anderson 1-7; Perdomo 3-5
LA-SF: McCarthy 1-5; Cain 4-7
American League
TB-Clev: Archer 1-8; Carrasco 0-7
Chi-LA: Pelfrey 2-4; Chavez 0-7
A’s-Sea: Manaea 0-5; Gallardo 4-7
Interleague
Hst-Mia: Musgrove 2-7; Straily 0-7
Atl-Tor: Colon 3-7; Bolsinger 0-1
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays and Atlanta Braves play two games at Rogers Centre starting Monday then complete the home-home series with two at SunTrust Park starting Wednesday.
The fortunes of the Toronto Blue Jays seems to be taking a turn for the better. After a horrid 7-17 April the Blue Jays have shown signs of life during May going 9-4 includind a current five game win streak. Here at the Rogers Centre in May the Jays have been tough to topple going 6-1 and have a 8-1 streak going in front of its frenzied home crowd. The road has not been kind to Blue Jays as they'll head to Atlanta 7-12 in an opposing park.
The woes of the Atlanta Braves, however, show no signs of letting up. Braves enter the contest 3-9 the past twelve, 7-15 the last 22 on the field. On the road Braves are a lowly 8-13 on the campaign. Doesn't get much better when they return to Atlanta as they're 5-8 in front of the home audience including 0-4 and 1-8 skids recently.
Since 2009, Braves have dominated this interleague series winning thirteen of nineteen encounters. In Toronto, the Braves have won 3 of 5 high scoring games (4-1 O/U) and in Atlanta the Braves have won 10 of 14 low scoring affairs (4-10 O/U).
Astros, Marlins meet in Miami
By: StatFox.com
The Astros will be looking to stay hot with a win over the Marlins on Monday.
Houston is playing extremely well right now, as the team has now won six of its past seven and 10 of its past 13 as well. The Astros most recently went into Yankee Stadium and beat a good Yankees team in three of four games. The Astros exploded offensively on Sunday, putting up 10 runs against Masahiro Tanaka. They’ll hope to keep it up when they face the Marlins here. Miami earned a 3-1 victory over Atlanta on Sunday, and that win prevented a three-game sweep. The Marlins have now won only three of their past 13 games, and they’ll need to start stringing together some victories soon. The starters in this Monday matchup are set to be RHP Joe Musgrove (2-3, 5.02 ERA, 28 K) for Houston and RHP Daniel Straily (1-3, 4.03 ERA, 37 K) for Miami. Both pitchers have struggled this season, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see this game go Over the total. One trend that favors Miami in this game is the fact that road teams that allow 3.9 or less runs per game on the season (Houston) are 14-38 against the money since 1997 after allowing seven or more runs in two straight games.
The Astros are rolling right now, but they will have a struggling pitcher on the mound on Monday. Musgrove has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his past five starts, but he was pretty good in his most recent outing. The righty faced the Braves in that game on May 10, allowing only two earned runs in six innings of work. He has, however, allowed a homer in five straight games. That is something that will need to change on Monday, and he also needs to do a better job of avoiding walks. Musgrove has put six batters on over the past two games, and that is just not going to cut it here. Offensively, OF George Springer (.261 BA, 9 HR, 22 RBI) is somebody to watch in this one. Springer is on a 13-game hitting streak for Houston, and he also homered twice in Sunday’s victory over the Yankees. He should be able to stay hot against a rather mediocre starter in Straily. SS Carlos Correa (.294 BA, 5 HR, 22 RBI) is also scorching coming into this one. Correa has gotten two hits in six of his past 10 games, and he has driven in at least one run in each of the past six.
The Marlins were able to earn a victory on Sunday, and they badly needed that one. Miami had lost five straight games heading into that contest, and it was very possible that the team could spiral out of control with another defeat at home against a mediocre Atlanta group. The Marlins will now be sending Straily to the mound, and he is hoping he can help his team earn a second straight win on Monday. Straily is coming off of his best start of the season, as the righty allowed just one earned run in seven innings of work against the Cardinals on May 9. If he can turn in another performance close to that one then the Marlins should be feeling great about their chances. They will, however, need guys like OFs Marcell Ozuna (.316 BA, 11 HR, 29 RBI), Christian Yelich (.288 BA, 5 HR, 19 RBI) and Giancarlo Stanton (.259 BA, 11 HR, 26 RBI) to play well in this series. The Astros have a ton of star power, so the Marlins need their guys to rise to the occasion.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Indians (-150, 7.5)
A new week begins with the Tampa Bay Rays traveling to Cleveland to take on the Indians in one of their weird 6:10 PM ET weekday "family friendly" start times.
The game features a great ace-vs-ace pitching matchup with Chris Archer getting the ball for the Rays and Carlos Carrasco climbing the hill at home for the Tribe.
The Rays were on their way to slipping back into the "Chris Archer curse" of 2016 - when he was the worst betting money starter in Major League Baseball. They had lost three of his starts in a row (thanks to poor offense and bullpen work) but rebounded in his last outing with a 12-1 win over the pathetic Kansas City Royals. The Rays have, however, lost two consecutive Archer road starts and will have a tough task today in Cleveland.
Carrasco has been tremendous for the Indians all season long thus far. He is the ace of their staff and has yet to have a poor start in seven trips to the hill in 2017. He is coming off a three-hit, seven inning performance against a resurgent Toronto Blue Jays squad in his last start and should keep rolling Monday night at home.
The Indians have won 10 of the last 11 meetings with the Rays and their last five meetings started by Archer.
Pick: Indians -150
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (+125, 7.5)
The heated rivalry between the Dodgers and Giants opens a three-game set at AT&T Park in San Francisco on Monday night.
Is Matt Cain back? Well, he may not be back to throwing pure heat like the Matt Cain from 2012, but he seems to have figured out how to operate without a 99 MPH fastball and pitch more to the ballpark and use his defense to his advantage. Cain's overall numbers in 2017 aren't eye-popping (mostly due to a blow-up start in Cincinnati where he allowed nine earned runs over 3.1 innings) but when you look at his stat line at home it certainly reminds us of the old Matt Cain.
In three starts at home this season, Cain owns a 2-0 record with a miniscule 1.12 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Only four walks over those three home starts seems to be the difference between his home/road split. His last start at home against the Dodgers was on April 24 when he pitched six shutout, two-hit innings in a Giants' 2-1 victory.
As good as Cain has been at home, Dodgers' Brandon McCarthy has been just as good on the road this season. In two road starts McCarthy is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
The total for today's game has been set at 7.5. Looking at recent history in this rivalry - the Dodgers and Giants have played seven times during the 2017 season and only one of those meetings has exceded 7.5 runs, with all four of the previous meetings at AT&T Park this season finishing under 7.5.
Pick: Under 7.5
Yesterday's Picks 0-1-1
Season to Date: 31-26-3
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians (4-2, 1.86 ERA, $95)
Carrasco is, most definitely, the ace of the Indians' staff. The Tribe own a 5-2 Team Win/Loss record in his seven starts this season. He has a 1.86 ERA, a .218 Opponent On Base Percentage, and 46 strikeouts against just six walks.
Carrasco's last start was an electric seven innings of shutout baseball with seven strikouts, zero walks, and only three hits allowed.
The Under has cashed in all seven of Carrasco's starts during the 2017 season and the Indians are -150 favorites at home today against the visiting Rays.
Slumping: Bartolo Colon, Atlanta Braves (1-4, 7.22 ERA, $0)
Bartolo Colon's flip from the New York Mets to the Atlanta Braves has been just...O.K.
The Braves are 3-4 in his seven starts this season but Colon gets thrown into the Slumping Starter category based on his last three outings.
Over his last three trips to the hill, Colon is 0-2 with a massive 11.66 ERA and a way-too-high WHIP of 1.98. He's not missing any bats with only eight strikeouts over those last three starts and he has allowed 25 hits and five home runs.
"Big Sexy" gets the ball today in Toronto against the surging Blue Jays as a +110 underdog with a total of 9.
Monday's Top Trends
* The Miami Marlins are 1-7 in their last 8 home games. +100 underdogs today vs. Astros.
* Under is 11-1 in the Los Angeles Angels' last 12 vs. American League Central. Total 8.5 vs. White Sox.
* Over is 6-1 in the San Diego Padres' last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Total 7.5 vs. Brewers.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 7-1 in Brandon McCarthy's last 8 starts. -145 favorites today @ Giants.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
Rain will not be an issue across the league today - the only cities with precipitation in the forecast have roofs over their baseball fields.
The only outdoor game with any wind worth mentioning will be in San Francisco for the Dodgers and Giants game. The forecast is calling for a 20 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field. There are always strong winds at AT&T Park but the stadium was built for the breezes to have minimal impact to the game on the field - never get too carried away when looking at the winds in San Francisco.