United States Grand Prix predictions come down to a front row split between a champion-in-waiting and the most successful driver in Circuit of The Americas history. Kimi Antonelli starts on pole for Sunday’s 56-lap race in Austin after beating Max Verstappen by 0.179 seconds in Saturday qualifying, and he can be crowned champion before the day is out. Verstappen arrives on a two-race winning streak at a circuit he has won four times. Below are our five best bets: the outright call, two mid-tier value plays and two long shots.
Last Updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026
2026 United States Grand Prix — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Circuit of The Americas, Austin, Texas |
| When | Sunday, October 25 – 4:00 PM ET |
| TV | Apple TV (U.S. streaming) |
2026 United States Grand Prix Betting Preview
COTA is a permanent road course of 5.513 kilometres and 20 corners, and the race runs 56 laps. There is no sprint, so Saturday set the order. Antonelli took his seventh pole of 2026 with a 1:34.035. Verstappen lines up second, Isack Hadjar third in the other Red Bull, then Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton for Ferrari. George Russell is sixth, with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris only seventh and eighth. Antonelli leads Russell by 102 points with six rounds left, and he can clinch the title here with a win if Russell finishes ninth or lower and Hamilton fifth or lower.
The board has moved sharply since Monday. Antonelli has roughly halved to +110 after taking pole, while Verstappen has shortened to +100. The drift elsewhere is just as telling. Russell and Norris have both lengthened sharply, and Norris lost his quickest Q3 lap to track limits. Ferrari is the quiet exception. Leclerc topped opening practice and Hamilton led final practice, yet their prices barely moved. For the pre-qualifying market, see our United States Grand Prix odds preview.
2026 United States Grand Prix — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +100 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +110 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1400 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1600 |
| Isack Hadjar | +2500 |
| George Russell | +3300 |
| Lando Norris | +5000 |
| Oscar Piastri | +10000 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, October 24, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest F1 Odds – Props
2026 United States Grand Prix Best Bets
Max Verstappen (+100) is the pick to win, and the reasoning starts with the grid rather than the price. The uphill run to Turn 1 is one of the longest on the calendar. It hands the car in second a slipstream and a look to the inside, and Verstappen has made that move stick here before. He has won this race four times, in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025, more than any driver in the circuit’s history.
Form backs the record. Verstappen has won the last two rounds, at Sepang and Singapore, after a difficult first half of the season. Red Bull has found something late, and Hadjar qualifying third in the sister car is the best supporting evidence available.
The case against has two parts. Antonelli has converted pole into victory repeatedly on his way to eight wins this season. If he controls Turn 1, COTA is hard to pass on. The second worry is Ferrari, which topped two of three practice sessions and may have better race pace than fourth and fifth suggests. At even money there is no cushion here.
United States Grand Prix Predictions Mid-Tier Value Plays
Isack Hadjar (+2500) is the best mid-board outright on the sheet. He starts third in the same Red Bull that has won the last two Grands Prix, and he out-qualified both Ferraris and both McLarens. Row two is a workable launch spot, because the long drag to Turn 1 scrambles the top five. The downside is experience. Hadjar has no Grand Prix win, and Red Bull may ask him to support Verstappen.
Ferrari (+750) in the winning constructor market is the cleaner way to back the team’s practice pace. Leclerc and Hamilton led two sessions between them, yet their individual prices sit at +1400 and +1600. Taking the team covers both cars for a shorter number than either alone. The risk is plain. Ferrari’s single-lap pace did not convert on Saturday, and starting fourth and fifth means track position must be won.
Long Shot Picks for The 2026 United States Grand Prix
Lando Norris (+5000) is the outright long shot, and the appeal is the size of the move. He sat near the top of the board earlier in the week, and he is now +5000 after losing his quickest Q3 lap to track limits. A deleted lap is a one-lap problem rather than a race-pace problem, and Norris has won twice in the last ten rounds. McLaren has looked off the pace all weekend, though, and eighth here means he needs a safety car or an offset strategy.
Pierre Gasly (+10000) to set the fastest lap is the second long shot and the more mechanical of the two. Gasly missed Q3 by 0.022 seconds and starts eleventh, the classic spot for a free late stop. A driver outside the points has nothing to protect and every reason to bolt on soft tyres late. The catch is that the leaders must stay close enough that none can afford a cheap extra stop. Otherwise a front-runner takes this lap for free.
2026 United States Grand Prix Final Thoughts: What to Watch
Everything here routes through the first 800 metres. A front row of Antonelli and Verstappen with Hadjar lurking is the recipe for a messy opening lap. Watch whether Red Bull can double-team the pole-sitter early, because that is the scenario in which both the Verstappen and Hadjar tickets come alive. Then watch degradation through the first stint, since the team that reads the crossover first usually controls the back half. Antonelli does not need to win to stay in command of the title race, and that incentive to bank a safe finish may matter most.
F1 United States Grand Prix FAQ: Sunday October 25, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the United States Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen is the favorite at +100, narrowly ahead of pole-sitter Kimi Antonelli at +110. He starts second at a circuit where he has won four times, and he has won the last two Grands Prix. No other driver is shorter than +1400.
What time does the United States Grand Prix start?
The 2026 United States Grand Prix starts at 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 25. That is 3:00 PM local time at Circuit of The Americas in Austin.
What channel is the United States Grand Prix on?
There is no linear TV channel in the United States this season. The race streams exclusively on Apple TV, which carries every session live and on demand.
Who is on pole for the United States Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli is on pole with a lap of 1:34.035, his seventh of the season. Max Verstappen joins him on the front row, 0.179 seconds back, with Isack Hadjar third.
How many laps is the United States Grand Prix?
The United States Grand Prix is 56 laps of Circuit of The Americas, roughly 308 kilometres. Each lap measures 5.513 kilometres across 20 corners. It is round 18 of 23 in 2026.
Who won the United States Grand Prix last year?
Max Verstappen won the 2025 United States Grand Prix, finishing 7.959 seconds clear of Lando Norris. It was his fourth win in Austin.