The Houston Texans are 3-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, October 4, 2026, and that number does not take these records at face value. Houston is 0-3 and winless against the spread. Dallas is 1-2 with a top-seven scoring offense. Yet the spread has moved toward the winless home team while the public money went the other way. That disconnect drives both picks below.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026
Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Reliant Stadium, Houston TX |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans Betting Preview
Dallas sits third in the NFC East at 1-2 after a brutal Week 3. The Ravens kicked a field goal in the closing seconds to win 34-31 in Brazil, a week after Dallas handled Washington 37-20. Dak Prescott has 730 yards and seven touchdowns, and the offense averages 29.3 points per game, with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens outside.
The defense is the problem. Dallas ranks 30th in total defense at 387.0 yards per game and 31st against the run at 179.7. New coordinator Christian Parker is still sorting personnel, and the late addition of cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is another moving part rather than a fix.
Houston is last in the AFC South at 0-3, losing 36-31 to Buffalo, 20-6 to Cincinnati, and 19-17 at Indianapolis. The offense ranks 26th in scoring at 18.0 points per game. C.J. Stroud has 794 passing yards without an interception, but he has been sacked 10 times on 43 pressures, and the run game sits 30th at 84.7 yards.
Houston’s defense is a different story. The Texans are fifth against the run at 86.7 yards per game and 16th in total defense. Will Anderson Jr. has four sacks and 20 pressures, and Pro Football Focus grades him first among edge defenders. Danielle Hunter lines up opposite him.
On the injury front, Houston gets Pro Bowl receiver Nico Collins back after two games out with a hamstring issue. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (groin) and safety M.J. Stewart (knee) are out. Jadeveon Clowney and Ed Ingram are questionable. Our Week 3 Cowboys coverage flagged the same Dallas defensive issues.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | +3 (-120) | +130 | U 49 (-110) |
| Texans | -3 (+100) | -150 | O 49 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Cowboys | 81% | 19% | Texans |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction — Why Is the Market Fading the Popular Side?
Start with the line movement, because it is the clearest signal in this game. The spread opened with Houston at -2. It now sits at -3, a move onto a key number. Meanwhile 81 percent of spread tickets are on Dallas. When four out of five bets land on one side and the number moves the other way, the money behind the minority position is doing the moving.
The case for Houston is structural rather than sentimental. Dallas is 31st against the run and Houston is fifth. That gap matters in a game Houston wants to control on the ground, and David Montgomery should find better room than he has all season. Meanwhile Anderson and Hunter face a Dallas tackle group that has needed help in protection. Collins returning restores the deep threat Houston has missed since Week 2.
The case against is real, and it is why this is a short number. Houston is 0-3 against the spread and has scored 17 points or fewer in two of three games. Dallas has the better quarterback and the seventh-ranked scoring offense. If Stroud takes three more sacks, Dallas wins comfortably and the public cashes. This is a price edge, not a certainty.
The Pick: Texans -3 (+100)
Cowboys vs. Texans Prediction — Does a 49-Point Number Fit This Offense?
The total opened at 47.5 and has climbed to 49, so the market has already priced in the Dallas defensive problems. The over case writes itself. Every Cowboys game this season has gone over, and their three games produced 48, 57 and 65 combined points. A defense allowing 387 yards per game keeps scoreboards busy.
The other side is simpler. Houston’s three games produced 67, 26 and 36 combined points, and the last two landed well under this number. A team averaging 18.0 points is being asked for roughly 21 of these 49, and Houston has cleared 21 once, in the opener. Houston’s defense is also fifth against the run and 16th overall, which argues against Dallas pulling away. Buying 49 means trusting a Dallas scoring spike against the better defense on the field.
The Pick: Under 49 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
One pricing wrinkle is worth noting for anyone who likes Houston. The Texans are -150 on the moneyline and -3 at even money. Both back the same team, but the spread pays better and adds a three-point cushion. Paying -150 to give up a free cushion is the weaker buy. The moneyline only wins that comparison if Houston takes it by exactly three.
This is a game between a team that cannot stop anyone and a team that cannot score. Those flaws tend to cancel rather than compound, which is why a modest favorite and a lean to the under sit together. If Collins is limited or Houston’s line leaks again, the Dallas side gets live quickly. For more of this week’s board, see our NFL picks coverage.
Bonus Angle: Take Texans -3 (+100) over Texans -150 on the moneyline.
All picks here: Texans -3 (+100) and Under 49 (-110).
NFL Cowboys vs. Texans FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
What time does the Cowboys vs. Texans game start?
Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, which is noon local time in Houston. It is an early-window game on the Week 4 schedule, so it starts alongside the bulk of the Sunday slate rather than in a standalone national window.
What channel is the Cowboys vs. Texans game on?
FOX has the broadcast. Because this is an NFC team visiting an AFC team, the game falls to the NFC rights holder, and coverage is regional rather than national. Viewers outside the Dallas and Houston markets should check local listings to confirm the game is carried in their area.
Where are the Cowboys and Texans playing?
The game is at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas, where the Texans play their home schedule. Dallas is the road team for this one, having hosted the most recent matchup between the two clubs back in 2024. The venue has a retractable roof.
Who won the last meeting between the Cowboys and Texans?
Houston won the last meeting 34-10 on November 18, 2024, in a Monday night game at AT&T Stadium. It was the Texans’ first road win over Dallas since 1988. Dallas leads the all-time regular season series 4-3, so Sunday’s result can even it.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Cowboys and Texans?
Dak Prescott starts for Dallas and C.J. Stroud starts for Houston, with neither carrying an injury designation. Prescott has 730 passing yards and seven touchdowns through three games. Stroud has 794 passing yards and has not thrown an interception, though he has absorbed 10 sacks.