Two teams headed the wrong direction meet in Tampa on Sunday afternoon, and the market has spent 48 hours rewriting this game. The Green Bay Packers opened as a short road favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb. The spread stretched, and the total collapsed by seven points. That is an enormous move for Week 4. Our headline play sides with the team the market just walked away from.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 4, 2026
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL |
| When | Sunday, October 4 – 1:00 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
Green Bay arrives at 1-2 after a brutal Thursday night in Atlanta. The Packers lost 22-39 at Minnesota, edged the Jets 20-17, then were run off the field 35-14 by the Falcons. That is 18.7 points per game from an offense expected to be among the NFC’s best. The defense has been worse, allowing 30.3 per game and 30-plus in both losses.
Roster context matters. Running back Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, and without him Green Bay’s ground game has been the league’s least productive. Edge rusher Micah Parsons, acquired in the offseason trade with Dallas, still has not debuted. Pass protection has been a persistent problem, and the team signed veteran guards Kevin Zeitler and Laken Tomlinson after interior line injuries.
Tampa Bay is 0-3, but the record undersells the team. All three losses came by one score: 27-33 at Cincinnati, 19-23 at Cleveland, and 16-23 at Minnesota, per the official NFL schedule. The defense is the reason. Tampa ranks sixth in total defense at 282.7 yards allowed, second against the run at 76.0 yards per game, and fifth in red-zone touchdown rate allowed.
The quarterback situation is the headline. Mayfield dislocated his thumb in the Minnesota loss and did not practice all week. Per the team’s final injury report, he is out, along with cornerback Benjamin Morrison, edge rusher Reuben Bain Jr. and tight end Ko Kieft. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start. Chris Godwin Jr. returned to full participation Friday. Green Bay ruled out four, all interior linemen or defensive tackles.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -3 (-110) | -165 | O 39 (-105) |
| Buccaneers | +3 (-110) | +140 | U 39 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of October 4, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Packers | 52% | 48% | Buccaneers |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction — Can a Rookie Debut Hold a Short Number?
Start with the line movement. This game opened with Green Bay laying 1.5 points and now sits at three. The entire shift traces to the Mayfield news, and the public split is nearly even at 52 percent. That adjustment is reasonable in isolation. The question is whether it fits the rest of the matchup.
The case for Green Bay is straightforward. A rookie making his first career start against a competent NFL defense is the most reliable source of offensive dysfunction in football. Tampa’s offense already ranked last in EPA per play before the injury. The Buccaneers also rank 22nd in pressure rate, so Jordan Love should have time to find Christian Watson and Matthew Golden downfield.
The counterargument is substantial, though. Tampa’s defense is the best unit on the field, and it is built to shorten exactly this kind of game. Green Bay’s answer is the league’s least productive ground game and an offensive line that has left Love under constant pressure. Without Jacobs and Parsons, this is not the team the market priced in August. Both clubs are winless against the spread. Only one is being asked to lay points on the road. The risk is clear: two Daniels turnovers and the margin gets away quickly.
The Pick: Buccaneers +3 (-110)
Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction — Has the Market Taken Too Much Off the Number?
The total opened at 46 and now sits at 39. A seven-point drop is dramatic, and most of it is the quarterback change. The logic holds up on its face. Tampa will lean on Bucky Irving against a Green Bay front allowing 138.7 rushing yards per game, 28th in the league. A run-heavy script burns clock, and Tampa’s red-zone defense turns drives into field goals.
Still, 39 is a very low number for a game featuring a defense allowing 30.3 points per game. Tampa’s three defeats all came because one or two explosive plays undid an otherwise solid afternoon. The over has cashed in two of three games for both teams. Our read is that the market overcorrected on the quarterback headline and underpriced Green Bay’s defensive problems.
The Pick: Over 39 (-105)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
For the same opinion at a longer price, the Tampa Bay moneyline is the alternate-line angle. At +140 it implies roughly a 42 percent chance of an outright win. Given the better defense, home field, and three one-score losses against a tougher early slate, that looks a touch generous. The trade-off is real, though: buying the extra return means giving up the three points, and in a game this tight those points may decide it.
Both teams enter desperate. Green Bay cannot afford to fall to 1-3, and an 0-4 start would effectively end Tampa’s season in Week 4. For more on how the Buccaneers have been losing, see our Week 3 Buccaneers preview, and our latest NFL picks coverage has more from around the league.
The full card: Buccaneers +3 (-110), Over 39 (-105), and Buccaneers moneyline +140 as the bonus angle.
NFL Packers vs. Buccaneers FAQ: Sunday October 4, 2026
What time does the Packers vs. Buccaneers game start?
Kickoff is 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The game sits in the early Sunday afternoon window, so it starts alongside most of the Week 4 slate rather than in a standalone national slot.
What channel is the Packers vs. Buccaneers game on?
FOX carries the broadcast, with Chris Myers on play-by-play and Jonathan Vilma on analysis. Because this is a regional Sunday afternoon window rather than a national game, availability depends on your local FOX affiliate and the market you are watching from.
Where are the Packers and Buccaneers playing?
The game is at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, the Buccaneers’ home venue. Green Bay makes the trip south after opening the season with two road games and one home date against the Jets.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Packers and Buccaneers?
Jordan Love starts for Green Bay, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first career NFL start for Tampa Bay. Daniels takes over because Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated right thumb suffered in the Week 3 loss to Minnesota. Easton Stick was elevated as the backup.
Who won the last meeting between the Packers and Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay won the most recent meeting 34-20 at Lambeau Field on December 17, 2023, in Week 15. Baker Mayfield threw four touchdown passes that day. The all-time series still favors Green Bay, which leads 33-23-1 across 57 meetings.