The Florida Swing wraps up with one of the most underrated betting events on the PGA Tour calendar—the Valspar Championship. With elite names skipping the event, this becomes a wide-open board loaded with value, volatility, and real outright betting opportunities.
This isn’t a birdie fest. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a grinder’s track—tight fairways, demanding iron play, and the brutal closing stretch known as the “Snake Pit.” If you’re betting this weekend, you’re targeting precision, patience, and elite ball-striking—not just bomb-and-gouge players.
Course Breakdown: Copperhead Course (Innisbrook)
- Par 71, ~7,340 yards
- One of the toughest non-major setups on Tour
- “Snake Pit” (holes 16–18) routinely decides the tournament
- Emphasis on:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Tee-to-green consistency
- Scrambling & bogey avoidance
Bottom line: This course neutralizes distance and rewards elite iron players and grinders.
Betting Odds (Top of the Board)
- Xander Schauffele (+1000 to +1075)
- Viktor Hovland (+1500 to +1600)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600 to +1800)
- Justin Thomas (+2200)
- Akshay Bhatia (+2000–2200)
- Jordan Spieth (+2300)
- Jacob Bridgeman (+2000–2350)
Important note: With Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy not in the field, Schauffele sits as the clear betting favorite.
Key Storylines for Bettors
1. Wide-Open Field = Value Everywhere
This event historically produces surprise winners and longshot contention, making it one of the best outright betting tournaments of the year.
2. Form > Name Value
- Schauffele: T7 at Genesis, 3rd at THE PLAYERS
- Bridgeman: Elite strokes gained + win this season
- Fitzpatrick: Trending upward with strong recent finishes
Recent form is far more predictive here than reputation.
3. Course History Matters More Than Usual
Copperhead is quirky and repeat success is common:
- Hovland (defending champ)
- Strong history for Spieth, Thomas, Schauffele
Best Bets & Predictions
Outright Winner Pick: Viktor Hovland (+1500)
Hovland checks every box:
- Defending champion
- Elite ball-striker
- Proven ability to handle Copperhead pressure
- Trending form with renewed coaching setup
On a course that demands precision, his iron play gives him a massive edge.
Value Play: Jacob Bridgeman (+2000–2350)
This is the sharp money pick.
- One of the hottest players on Tour
- Top-tier strokes gained metrics
- 3rd here last year + recent top-5 finish
You’re getting near-elite form at mid-tier odds—exactly what wins this event.
Mid-Tier Contender: Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600–1800)
- Perfect profile for Copperhead
- Strong short game + accuracy
- Trending form after near-miss recently
If this turns into a grind (it usually does), Fitzpatrick thrives.
Longshot: Wyndham Clark (50/1–60/1 range)
- Proven upside player
- Past success at Copperhead (top-5)
- Ideal mix of power + improving short game
High ceiling at a number worth betting.
Betting Strategy for This Event
- Avoid heavy favorites → volatility is high
- Target 3–5 outrights instead of 1
- Add Top 10 / Top 20 plays for consistency
- Prioritize:
- Approach play
- Bogey avoidance
- Course history
Final Prediction
Winner: Viktor Hovland
This sets up perfectly for a repeat:
- Elite ball striking
- Course comfort
- Proven ability to close at Copperhead
Expect him to separate late in the Snake Pit and defend his title.