Our 2026 BMW Championship predictions land on a course that has not hosted a PGA TOUR event in 18 years. The second FedExCup Playoffs leg runs Thursday, August 20 through Sunday, August 23 at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis. Fifty players tee it up, there is no cut, and only the top 30 advance. Bellerive stretches to 7,448 yards for a $20 million purse. Below are five handicapped picks across the outright, group and first-round markets.
Last Updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026
2026 BMW Championship — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Bellerive Country Club, St. Louis, MO |
| When | Thursday, August 20 – Coverage from 10:00 AM ET |
| TV | ESPN, Golf Channel, CBS |
2026 BMW Championship Betting Predictions
This is the deepest field of the season outside the majors, with 42 of the 50 qualifiers inside the world top 50. Scottie Scheffler defends after winning at Caves Valley last year. He is chasing the first back-to-back BMW title since Patrick Cantlay in 2021 and 2022. Bellerive is the variable. The Robert Trent Jones Sr. design plays to a par 70, with 12 par 4s, four par 3s and only two par 5s measuring 613 and 624 yards. That mix puts long irons in players’ hands, and wedge-heavy scorers get fewer of the looks they need. The last TOUR visit came in 2008, so course history is thin.
One name shapes the board. Scheffler sits at +300 after an eight-shot win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and the next price is Ludvig Aberg at +1600. TheSpread.com also lists a Scheffler versus the field market, with the other 49 priced together at -450. The market sees Scheffler against a flat pack, not a four-man race. Rory McIlroy is +1800 despite finishing 66th in Memphis, where he said he felt far away from where he needs to be. Chris Gotterup leads the TOUR with three wins and is still +3000. Our companion BMW Championship odds preview has the full market read.
2026 BMW Championship — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +300 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1600 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1800 |
| Sam Burns | +1800 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Cameron Young | +2000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2200 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 |
| Chris Gotterup | +3000 |
Odds accurate as of Wednesday, August 19, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest Golf Odds – Props
2026 BMW Championship Best Bets
Ludvig Aberg (+1600) is our outright pick to win. The course profile drives the call. Bellerive asks for long and mid irons more than any recent playoff venue, and iron play is the sturdiest part of Aberg’s game. He has eight top-10s in 2026, including third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, fifth at THE PLAYERS, fourth at the RBC Heritage and fourth at the PGA Championship. He also arrives sharp after a tie for seventh at TPC Southwind.
The price matters as much as the profile. Scheffler at +300 implies roughly 25 percent in a 50-man field, which leaves no margin if he cools after an eight-shot week. Aberg at +1600 is more than five times that number. In a no-cut format, a steady ball-striker also gets all 72 holes to work rather than a Friday guillotine.
The case against is simple. Aberg has not won in 2026, and converting contention has been the missing piece. Eight top-10s without a victory is a pattern, and the putter is usually the reason. Scheffler beating this field is also entirely plausible. Backing Aberg means accepting that risk in exchange for the price.
BMW Championship Predictions Mid-Tier Value Picks
Chris Gotterup (+3000) is the outright value play. He leads the PGA TOUR with three wins this season, taking the Sony Open, the WM Phoenix Open and the John Deere Classic. Nobody else here has more than two. He is also one of the longer drivers here, which helps on two par 5s past 600 yards. The counterargument is volatility. Outside those wins he has just two top-10s, plus a missed cut at the Rocket Classic and a 30th in Memphis. This is a ceiling bet, and +3000 prices it correctly.
Hideki Matsuyama (+375) in Tournament Group B is our favorite secondary-market play. Group betting only asks that your player beats four named rivals. Matsuyama is the longest price in a group holding Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young and Si Woo Kim. He tied for seventh at the St. Jude and remains an elite long-iron player, the skill Bellerive taxes. The risk is that the group is loaded. Burns tied for third last week, Si Woo Kim was runner-up, and Fitzpatrick sits second in the FedExCup. Still, +375 implies about 21 percent, and Matsuyama rates better than that.
Long Shot Picks for The 2026 BMW Championship
Alex Noren (+7000) is the deep outright worth a small ticket. Noren tied for third at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, one of only four players to reach 8 under at TPC Southwind. He is a precision player rather than a bomber, and a par 70 with four long par 3s rewards the man still making pars. What has to break right is the putter travelling and Bellerive playing firm. If the greens stay soft and the number runs to 15 under, longer hitters simply outscore him.
Michael Brennan (+4500) to be the 1st Round Leader is a first-round market play rather than an outright. Brennan won the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago at 22 under, matching the Sedgefield tournament record and closing with a 64 built on five straight birdies. That low-round gear is exactly what this ticket needs. The case against is the step up in class. Sedgefield is short and birdie-friendly, while Bellerive is the opposite test, and Brennan is making his BMW Championship debut. This is a variance bet by design.
2026 BMW Championship Final Thoughts: What to Watch
We leaned into the course rather than the board this week. Aberg is the outright, Gotterup the mid-board swing, Matsuyama the group play, and Noren and Brennan cover the deep end. The common thread is long-iron quality. Bellerive’s two par 5s will be out of reach for much of the field, so birdies stolen from 180 yards and beyond should decide this. Watch the par-4 scoring average Thursday afternoon. It will show quickly whether this is a grinder’s week or a shootout. Recent BMW winning scores have run from 12 under to 17 under, and anything tighter would favor precision over power. Only the top 30 advance to the Tour Championship, which sharpens every Sunday decision. Our St. Jude Championship picks show how this field was trending coming in.
BMW Championship FAQ: Thursday August 20, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the BMW Championship?
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +300 via TheSpread.com. He is the defending champion and arrives off an eight-shot win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Ludvig Aberg is next at +1600, with Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns and Xander Schauffele at +1800.
When does the BMW Championship start?
The 2026 BMW Championship begins Thursday, August 20 at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, with television coverage from 10:00 AM ET. It runs through Sunday, August 23 as the second of three FedExCup Playoffs events.
What channel is the BMW Championship on?
ESPN carries the BMW Championship from 10:00 AM to noon ET Thursday and Friday, with Golf Channel from 3:00 to 7:00 PM ET. Weekend coverage runs on Golf Channel and CBS, with Sunday’s final round on CBS from 2:00 to 6:00 PM ET.
Who won the BMW Championship last year?
Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland, finishing 15 under par for a two-shot victory. He is trying to become the first back-to-back BMW winner since Patrick Cantlay in 2021 and 2022.
What is the par and yardage at Bellerive Country Club?
Bellerive Country Club plays as a par 70 measuring 7,448 yards this week. The Robert Trent Jones Sr. design has 12 par 4s, four par 3s and two par 5s that stretch to 613 and 624 yards.
What is the cut rule for the BMW Championship?
There is no cut at the BMW Championship. All 50 qualifiers play four rounds for a $20 million purse, with 750 FedExCup points to the winner. Only the top 30 in points afterward advance to the Tour Championship.