FedEx St. Jude Championship predictions matter more than usual this week. The FedExCup Playoffs open Thursday, August 13, 2026 at TPC Southwind in Memphis, and 19 players will see their seasons end by Sunday night. The field is 69 strong, there is no 36-hole cut, and only the top 50 advance. Below are five picks across the outright and secondary markets.
Last Updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship — Time & How to Watch
| Where | TPC Southwind, Memphis, TN |
| When | Thursday, August 13 – 9:00 AM ET |
| TV | ESPN, Golf Channel (Rounds 1-2); Golf Channel, CBS (weekend) |
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview
This is the deepest field of the postseason. All 69 qualifiers are here, led by FedExCup leader Scottie Scheffler, Masters champion Rory McIlroy and reigning FedExCup champion Tommy Fleetwood. Daniel Berger, who qualified 60th, was the lone player to pass. TPC Southwind is a par 70 at 7,288 yards with nine par 4s and only two par 5s. Bermuda greens and 10 water hazards reward iron control over distance. Justin Rose defends after a playoff win over J.J. Spaun, and the last four champions here finished between 15 and 17 under.
The board is priced in two tiers. Scheffler sits alone at +500 and McIlroy is next at +1400. After that the ladder flattens fast, with six players packed between +1800 and +2800. That is unusually compressed for a 69-man field. The market sees Scheffler as clearly best but far from safe, and it leaves playable numbers in the twenties. The storylines help explain it. Scheffler has one win this season despite five runner-up finishes. Michael Brennan arrives straight from a Wyndham Championship win that pushed him inside the top 70. For more on the market, see our FedEx St. Jude Championship odds preview.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +500 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1400 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2000 |
| Cameron Young | +2200 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2200 |
| Sam Burns | +2200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2800 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2800 |
Odds accurate as of Wednesday, August 12, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest Golf Odds – Props
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets
Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) is our pick to win the outright market. Nobody in this field knows TPC Southwind better. He won here in 2024 at 17 under, and his 263 total remains the tournament record. He also lost the 2021 playoff on this course. He has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last five Memphis starts.
The form backs it up. Matsuyama has four straight top-15 finishes: T14 at The Open, third at the 3M Open, fifth at the Rocket Classic and T7 at the Wyndham. He ranks sixth on Tour in strokes gained around the green. That skill travels well on a par 70 with only two par 5s and 94 bunkers.
What would make this wrong? He has not won in 2026, and this is a fifth straight week of golf. Fatigue is a real risk in a no-cut event, and his putter ranks outside the top 60. Scheffler is first on Tour in strokes gained total with a fourth and a T3 here in two years. The case for the chalk is genuine. We prefer the course fit at four times the price.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions Mid-Tier Value Plays
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800) is the mid-board outright we like most. He is second in the FedExCup standings with three 2026 wins, at the Valspar, the RBC Heritage and the Zurich Classic. He also leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach. This course asks for nine par-4 approaches a round, and nobody hits more of them. The counterargument is the putter. Fitzpatrick ranks outside the top 90 on the greens and missed the cut at The Open last time out.
Si Woo Kim (+350) to win Tournament Group Betting Group C is the second mid-tier play. The group pits him against Justin Thomas, Chris Gotterup, Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley, and he is priced fourth of five. Si Woo Kim is third on Tour in strokes gained approach and fifth in strokes gained total. He is seventh in FedExCup points, posted T14 and T16 in his last two Memphis trips, and added a T6 at The Open.
The risk is familiar. He ranks outside the top 100 in putting and is one of the shortest drivers here. Gotterup is eighth off the tee with three wins this season, so the group is competitive.
Long Shot Picks for The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship
Aaron Rai (+7500) is our first long-shot outright. He won the PGA Championship in May and ranks near the top of this field in driving accuracy. Southwind’s water and bunkering reward players who keep the ball in play. Rai has four top-30 finishes in six trips here.
For this to land, the putter has to show up. Rai ranks outside the top 90 on the greens and missed cuts at The Open and the Scottish Open in July. He has never finished inside the top 15 in Memphis. At 75-1 the price accounts for that, but it is a ceiling play.
Justin Rose (+7000) is the second long-shot outright, and the defending champion is a live number. Rose beat Spaun in a playoff here last August with an 11-foot birdie on the third extra hole. He won the Farmers Insurance Open in January and added a T3 at the Masters. His approach play still ranks inside the top 20 on Tour, the skill this course pays.
The case against is clear. No player has defended this title since the event became a Playoffs stop in 2007. Rose missed the cut at The Open in his last start and has four missed cuts this season. He also ranks outside the top 75 off the tee. Still, 70-1 for a proven winner here is a defensible sprinkle.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Final Thoughts: What to Watch
Southwind rarely produces a runaway. The last four winners landed between 15 and 17 under, so a total in that range is the working expectation again. Birdie chances are scarce with only two par 5s, and the 239-yard 14th is one of the hardest par 3s on Tour. The tournament therefore turns on the par 4s. That is why our card leans on approach play from Matsuyama, Fitzpatrick and Si Woo Kim. Watch the bubble too. Everyone outside the top 50 is playing a four-round elimination match, and that pressure usually shows Sunday.
FedEx St. Jude Championship FAQ: Thursday August 13, 2026
Who is the favorite to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +500. He leads the FedExCup standings and has finished fourth and T3 at TPC Southwind in the past two years. Rory McIlroy is next at +1400, with Xander Schauffele third at +1800.
When does the FedEx St. Jude Championship start?
Round 1 is Thursday, August 13, 2026 at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. Coverage begins at 9 a.m. ET on ESPN. The tournament runs through Sunday, August 16, and is the first of three FedExCup Playoffs events.
What channel is the FedEx St. Jude Championship on?
ESPN carries 9-11 a.m. ET Thursday and Friday, with Golf Channel from 2-6 p.m. ET. Saturday runs on Golf Channel from 1-3 p.m. ET and CBS from 3-6 p.m. ET. Sunday airs on Golf Channel from 12-2 p.m. ET and CBS from 2-6 p.m. ET.
Who won the FedEx St. Jude Championship last year?
Justin Rose won the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship at 16 under par. He beat J.J. Spaun in a playoff with an 11-foot birdie on the third extra hole. Rose returns as defending champion and sits 24th in the FedExCup standings.
What is the par and yardage at TPC Southwind?
TPC Southwind plays as a par 70 measuring 7,288 yards. It has nine par 4s, four par 3s and two par 5s, with zoysia fairways and Bermuda greens. Hideki Matsuyama holds the tournament record of 263, set during his 2024 win.
What is the cut rule for the FedEx St. Jude Championship?
There is no 36-hole cut. All 69 players play four rounds, which is standard for FedExCup Playoffs events. The top 50 in the standings after Sunday advance to the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis.