Last Updated on September 7, 2025 10:33 am by Michael Cash
The NFL returns in style, with Week 1 Sunday loaded with divisional rivalries, marquee matchups, and betting opportunities from the early slate to Sunday Night Football. Whether you’re looking for chalk you can trust or value in contrarian plays, today’s card sets the tone for the 2025 season. Let’s dive into the best bets, long-shot sprinkles, and market notes to guide your Sunday wagering.
Today’s NFL Week 1 Top 3 Best Bets
- Detroit Lions −3 vs Green Bay Packers (1:00 pm ET)
Pick Analysis: Detroit opens at home with lofty expectations after last season’s division title. Their offensive line and pass rush should pressure Jordan Love early. With 61% of public tickets on the Packers, fading the crowd leans value toward Detroit.
Public on Green Bay, value may lie with Detroit.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Miami Dolphins +2.5 at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 pm ET)
Pick Analysis: The Dolphins’ speed on offense matches up well against a young Colts secondary. Tua’s accuracy and Miami’s defensive front create an edge. Public action is heavy on Indy, giving Miami contrarian backing.
Public on Colts, value may lie with Miami.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Baltimore Ravens +3 at Buffalo Bills (SNF, 8:20 pm ET)
Pick Analysis: Prime-time showdown with two AFC contenders. Ravens’ defensive additions and Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability make them a live road dog. Public is leaning Bills, but Baltimore’s depth and coaching edge could swing it.
Public on Buffalo, value may lie with Baltimore.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
Week 1 Value Long Shots
- New York Giants ML at Washington Commanders (1:00 pm ET)
Why it’s tempting: Division underdogs thrive in Week 1 spots. Giants’ revamped defense and Daniel Jones’ mobility can exploit a Washington OL that struggled last season.
Bet this pick now at Bovada - Arizona Cardinals +6 at New Orleans Saints (1:00 pm ET)
Why it’s tempting: Arizona showed late-season fight last year and now enters with a healthier roster. Saints are a public favorite, but Kyler Murray’s scrambling can keep this inside the number.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
Quick Trends & Notes
- Public favorites: Heavy ticket counts on Green Bay, Buffalo, and New Orleans—opening contrarian opportunities.
- Divisional dogs: Historically strong in Week 1 ATS; Giants and Cardinals both fit that angle.
- Totals drifting under: Several opening totals (e.g., Ravens-Bills, Dolphins-Colts) ticked down after sharp money on early Unders.
- Market splits: Sharps pushing Detroit and Miami despite public leaning opposite.
Public Betting Snapshot
See today’s NFL public betting info
- Packers vs Lions: 61% GB | 39% DET
- Dolphins vs Colts: 58% IND | 42% MIA
- Ravens vs Bills: 65% BUF | 35% BAL
- Giants vs Commanders: 54% WAS | 46% NYG
- Cardinals vs Saints: 68% NO | 32% ARI
Today’s Card
| Time (ET) | Matchup | Spread / Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1:00 pm | Packers at Lions (Detroit) | DET −3 / 47.5 |
| 1:00 pm | Dolphins at Colts (Indianapolis) | IND −2.5 / 46 |
| 1:00 pm | Giants at Commanders (Washington) | WAS −2 / 41.5 |
| 1:00 pm | Cardinals at Saints (New Orleans) | NO −6 / 44 |
| 4:25 pm | Eagles at Cowboys (Dallas) | DAL −1 / 49 |
| 8:20 pm | Ravens at Bills (Buffalo) | BUF −3 / 47 |
(Lines from Bovada as of morning snapshot, Sept 7, 2025.)