The Minnesota Lynx host the Phoenix Mercury on Monday night at Target Center, and the price tells you most of what the market thinks. Minnesota is laying 12.5 points with a total of 170. The interesting part is the direction the line has traveled. The Lynx opened at -11.5 and have been pushed to -12.5, even though a slim majority of spread tickets sit on Phoenix. That is a quiet signal worth unpacking.
Last Updated: Monday, July 13, 2026
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| When | Monday, July 13 – 9:00 PM ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Game Preview
Minnesota enters at 17-6 and sits atop the Western Conference. The Lynx are 10-1 in conference play and 7-4 at home. They score 90.0 points per game and allow 80.9. Over their last 10 they are 7-3.
They have done all of that without Napheesa Collier, who has not played a minute this season after dual offseason ankle surgeries. She recently returned to practice and coach Cheryl Reeve says her debut is close, but Collier is listed out for Monday. Rookie Olivia Miles has been the engine in her absence, averaging 18.7 points and 5.6 assists. Kayla McBride scored a game-high 25 in Saturday’s 90-85 win over New York. Natasha Howard adds 16.9 points and 8.1 rebounds.
Phoenix arrives in a very different place. The Mercury are 8-16, 5-8 on the road, and have lost three straight. The most recent was a 106-58 defeat in Las Vegas on Saturday. Phoenix scores 82.6 per game and surrenders 86.6, and over the last 10 games opponents have averaged 88.7 against them.
The talent is still real. Kahleah Copper leads the team at 20.3 points per game and has averaged 24.5 over the last 10. Alyssa Thomas posts 14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 7.9 assists. However, Phoenix will be without leading rebounder Natasha Mack (8.3 per game, foot). That is a meaningful subtraction against a Lynx side grabbing 36.5 boards a night.
Minnesota has won both meetings this season, and both came in Phoenix. The first was an 88-84 grind. The second was a 111-77 rout on June 2 in which Courtney Williams poured in 30. For recent context, see our Mercury vs Aces Prediction July 11 and Liberty vs Lynx Prediction.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury | +12.5 (-110) | +525 | U 170 (-110) |
| Lynx | -12.5 (-110) | -800 | O 170 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Monday, July 13, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mercury | 54% | 46% | Lynx |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction — Is the Home Favorite Priced Too High?
Start with the line movement. Minnesota opened at -11.5 and has been bumped to -12.5, yet 54 percent of spread tickets sit on Phoenix. When a number moves toward the side taking fewer bets, the money behind those bets is usually larger and more respected. The moneyline says the same thing. Minnesota opened at -675 and now sits at -800.
The underlying math supports the move. Minnesota’s scoring differential is roughly plus-nine per game. Phoenix is around minus-four. Add standard home-court value to that gap and the fair number lands right around this line. Minnesota also shoots 47.7 percent from the field, and the Mercury allow 46.3 percent. Without Mack inside, the Lynx should own the paint.
The case against laying this many points is not trivial. Double-digit WNBA spreads are volatile, and Copper and Thomas are both capable of dragging a team to a backdoor cover. Phoenix also just lost by 48, and pride tends to show up in the next game. Minnesota, meanwhile, is coming off an emotional win over the Liberty with an All-Star break looming. A flat start is exactly how a 12.5-point number gets uncomfortable. Still, the Lynx already beat this team by 34 this season, and the market is signaling where the respected money sits.
The Pick: Lynx -12.5 (-110)
Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction — Can Phoenix Keep This Game Quiet?
The total opened at 168.5 and has climbed to 170. Run the season averages and you land almost exactly on the number. Minnesota’s offense against Phoenix’s defense projects to roughly 88 points. Phoenix’s offense against Minnesota’s defense projects to roughly 82. That is a coin flip on paper, so recent form and head-to-head history carry the weight here.
Both point the same direction. Over their last 10, the Mercury have allowed 88.7 points per game, well above their season mark. Both meetings with Minnesota cleared this number, the 88-84 opener landing at 172 combined and the June 2 rout at 188. The counterargument is the blowout scenario. If the Lynx build a 25-point lead, starters sit, pace slows, and bench minutes can strand a total short. Phoenix also just posted 58 points in Las Vegas, a reminder that this offense can vanish entirely. That risk is real, and it is why the over is not a comfortable position.
The Pick: Over 170 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The moneyline is the one market to leave alone. Minnesota at -800 carries an implied probability near 89 percent, a steep laydown for a July regular season game. Phoenix at +525 is a longshot, and the Mercury have not looked capable of an upset over the last two weeks. Neither side offers a defensible edge, so the value here sits on the spread and the total.
The bigger picture is Collier. Reeve has not committed to a date, and Minnesota has five games left before the All-Star break. Monday may be the last look at this version of the Lynx, the 17-6 group with Miles running the offense and Howard and McBride carrying the scoring. It draws an opponent in free fall.
Our picks for Mercury vs. Lynx: Lynx -12.5 (-110) and Over 170 (-110).
WNBA Mercury vs. Lynx July 13, 2026 FAQ
What time does the Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx game start?
Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET on Monday, July 13, 2026, at Target Center in Minneapolis.
What channel is the Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx game on?
The game streams nationally on Peacock. Regional coverage is available on Victory+ in the Minnesota market and Arizona’s Family 3TV in the Phoenix market.
Who is favored in the Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx game?
Minnesota is a 12.5-point home favorite at -110, and the Lynx are priced at -800 on the moneyline. Phoenix is +12.5 (-110) and +525.
Who won the last meeting between the Mercury and the Lynx?
Minnesota won 111-77 in Phoenix on June 2, 2026, behind a 30-point game from Courtney Williams. The Lynx lead the season series 2-0.
Is Napheesa Collier playing tonight?
No. Collier is listed out with an ankle injury and has not appeared this season following surgery on both ankles. She has returned to practice, and the Lynx have said she is progressing as expected, but no return date has been announced.