Paul Skenes takes the mound at Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are still the underdog. The Chicago Cubs sit at -128 on the moneyline one day after a 12-2 rout in the opener. Pittsburgh comes back at +107 with the more decorated arm on the hill, and the total is posted at 8.5. Our headline play works off what Skenes has actually done lately, which is not quite what his reputation suggests.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois |
| When | Saturday, September 12 — 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee Sports Network / SportsNet Pittsburgh |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Start with the starters, because this game turns on them. Skenes brings a 10-11 record, a 3.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP into his 30th outing, with 181 strikeouts in 155 innings. His 3.08 FIP sits well under his ERA, so the run prevention has trailed the underlying work.
Clay Holmes counters with the better surface line. He is 6-7 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 15 starts and 86 innings. However, his strikeout rate tells a different story: 65 punchouts, or 6.80 per nine, against 30 walks. He also just had his worst day of the year, allowing eight earned runs in 4.1 innings against Miami on September 6. That was the first time in 15 starts he gave up more than four, and it pushed his ERA from 2.09 to 2.83.
Skenes has not been an innings eater lately either. Over his last five starts he has thrown 25.1 innings with 19 strikeouts and nine walks, and his longest outing was six innings at San Diego.
The standings frame the stakes. Chicago is 82-66 and holds the second National League wild card spot. Pittsburgh is 74-74 and slipped further off the pace on Friday. The Pirates had won four straight before the opener, and the Cubs had lost four straight.
Friday also drained Pittsburgh’s relief corps. With Braxton Ashcraft on the injured list with right arm discomfort, the Pirates ran a bullpen game. Wilber Dotel covered two innings, Khristian Curtis three and Antwone Kelly three. Between them, the three rookies allowed 12 runs across eight innings. For how the opener was priced, see our September 11 Pirates vs. Cubs breakdown.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | -1.5 (+155) | +107 | U 8.5 (+110) |
| Cubs | +1.5 (-180) | -128 | O 8.5 (-130) |
Odds accurate as of September 12, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Pirates | 45% | 55% | Cubs |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction — Is the Better Arm on the Wrong Side of the Price?
The ERA column favors Chicago. Almost everything underneath it favors Pittsburgh. Skenes misses bats at a rate Holmes does not approach, 10.51 strikeouts per nine against 6.80. Their fielding-independent marks flip the surface read entirely: 3.08 for Skenes, 3.45 for Holmes. When two pitchers are separated by a full run of ERA but the process numbers point the other way, the price tends to lag the better arm.
The market read adds a small nudge. Chicago opened at -123 and now sits at -128, a move of five cents, while 78 percent of moneyline tickets sit on the Cubs. A side drawing that much of the ticket count usually gets pushed harder, and the run line split is nearly even at 55-45. That is not reverse line movement, and calling it that would overstate the case. Still, a barely-moved number under one-way ticket flow is worth noting.
The case against Pittsburgh is real. Chicago hung 12 runs on the Pirates on Friday, and Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman have carried that lineup through September. Skenes has also averaged close to five innings recently, and every inning he does not cover goes to a relief group that just worked eight and is missing Ashcraft. That is the scenario in which this price looks correct rather than generous.
The Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+107)
Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction — Who Is Covering the Middle Innings?
Both bullpens are likely to be in this game early, and that is the cleanest read on the board. Skenes has reached six innings once in his last five starts. Holmes has been managed carefully all year and is coming off a four-and-a-third-inning outing. Project both starters out by the sixth and the run environment shifts toward the relievers, where Pittsburgh is thinnest after Friday.
The counter-argument deserves equal weight. Both starters carry WHIPs under 1.16, so traffic has not been a regular problem for either. The number also has not moved since it opened, so there is no market confirmation behind this read. Paying the juice on a static number is a worse entry point than the same read at a flat price. This is a lean supported by roster math, not by the market.
The Pick: Over 8.5 (-130)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
An honest note on these two positions: they lean on the same fact in opposite directions. Pittsburgh’s depleted relief group is the biggest threat to the side play and the biggest support for the total. A 6-5 Pirates win satisfies both. Treat them as related, not independent.
The swing moment arrives in the fifth and sixth. If Skenes is still under 85 pitches there, Pittsburgh’s outlook improves, because the handoff moves past the rookies. Holmes, meanwhile, is pitching for a postseason rotation spot, so Chicago has reason to let him work through trouble. No third angle clears the bar. Full recap: Pirates Moneyline (+107) and Over 8.5 (-130). For more NL Central betting coverage, see our latest MLB picks.
MLB Pirates vs. Cubs FAQ: Saturday September 12, 2026
What time does the Pirates vs. Cubs game start?
First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026, which is 1:20 p.m. local time in Chicago. It is the middle game of a three-game weekend series at Wrigley Field.
What channel is the Pirates vs. Cubs game on?
Marquee Sports Network carries the game in the Chicago market, and SportsNet Pittsburgh carries it in the Pittsburgh market. Out-of-market viewers can find it through MLB.TV subject to local blackout rules.
Who is pitching for the Pirates today?
Right-hander Paul Skenes starts for Pittsburgh. He enters at 10-11 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, and he has 181 strikeouts across 155 innings in 29 starts. Chicago counters with right-hander Clay Holmes, who is 6-7 with a 2.83 ERA.
Who won the last meeting between the Pirates and Cubs?
Chicago won the series opener 12-2 on Friday, September 11, 2026, at Wrigley Field. The result snapped a four-game Pittsburgh winning streak and a four-game Chicago losing streak in the same afternoon.
How many games are left in the Pirates-Cubs series?
One game remains after Saturday. The clubs close the three-game set on Sunday, September 13, 2026, at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh is scheduled to start Bubba Chandler in the finale, with Chicago countering with Matthew Boyd.