The Subway Series returns to the Bronx for a Saturday matinee, with a veteran facing a rookie in Game 2. Gerrit Cole starts for the New York Yankees. Zac Thornton, a 24-year-old left-hander, answers for the New York Mets. The home side opened a clear favorite and has only firmed since. Still, the sharpest move here has nothing to do with the side.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York |
| When | Saturday, September 12 – 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES Network / SNY |
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Betting Preview
Cole is 8-8 with a 3.41 ERA across 19 starts and 111 innings, per Baseball Reference. His 1.090 WHIP rests on elite control, with just 22 walks all season. However, his recent form is softer. Cole has allowed 11 earned runs over his last four starts, a span of 24.1 innings, with only 21 strikeouts. He has also never solved this opponent, owning a 6.99 ERA against the Mets across nine career starts.
Thornton is the counterweight. The rookie debuted on May 20 and has made 12 starts, going 3-5 with a 3.53 ERA. His 1.191 WHIP is respectable, and he has walked only 15 in 66.1 innings. In contrast, his 51 strikeouts work out to 6.9 per nine, so he lives on contact. His last three outings: six earned in five innings, two earned in five, and one earned over six. He has not pitched past the sixth this season.
The standings context is lopsided. The Yankees are 85-62 and trail Tampa Bay by three games in the American League East, per MLB.com standings. They are 7-3 in their last 10 and took Friday’s opener 6-4. The Mets are 68-79 and fourth in the National League East. Meanwhile, they are also 7-3 over their last 10, so the form lines sit closer than the records imply.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +1.5 (-135) | +157 | U 8 (-105) |
| Yankees | -1.5 (+115) | -192 | O 8 (-115) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, September 12, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Mets | 16% | 84% | Yankees |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction — Why Did This Number Shrink Overnight?
The most informative movement sits in the totals market. The number opened at 8.5 with the under shaded to -125. It now reads 8 with the over carrying -115. The books first priced the under at the higher number, then moved the number itself and flipped the juice. That footprint is objective rather than narrative.
The baseball supports the direction. Both starters limit free traffic, with Cole walking roughly 1.8 per nine and Thornton about 2.0. Walks drive pitch counts, early bullpen entry and multi-run innings. Cole has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts, keeping Yankees relievers out of the game.
The case against is real. Cole’s run prevention has slipped, and Thornton was tagged for six earned in five innings his last time out. A 6.9 strikeout rate means the Yankees will put the ball in play, and Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch turns routine contact into damage. Thornton has never worked past the sixth, so the Mets bullpen likely covers three-plus innings. The honest caveat is that the number has already moved, so we are following the signal rather than front-running it.
The Pick: Under 8 (-105)
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction — Is the Crowd Buying the Wrong Margin?
The side market tells a different story. Eighty-four percent of run line bets sit on the Yankees at -1.5, and 89 percent of moneyline tickets back them. The line has moved with that money, not against it. The run line went from +125 to +115 and the moneyline from -177 to -192. Movement that follows the crowd carries little signal on its own.
The underdog cushion is interesting for structural reasons. Home favorites are the weaker spot for -1.5, because a home team leading after the top of the ninth never bats again. Walk-off wins also land by exactly one run more often than not. Roughly 28 percent of MLB games finish with a one-run margin. In contrast, the Mets are 11 games under .500 with a thinner roster. The Yankees are chasing a division title, and -135 is real juice. This is a lean, not a conviction play.
The Pick: Mets Run Line +1.5 (-135)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
No third angle here carries a priced edge worth adding, so the card stays at two plays. Both rest on the same read: a tighter, lower-scoring afternoon than the moneyline crowd expects. Our Friday coverage of the series opener framed the matchup a similar way.
Two things will signal whether the read is holding. The first is Cole’s pitch count through four innings. If he reaches the seventh, the under gets easier. The second is Thornton’s third trip through the Yankees order, the likeliest place for a crooked number. A close game after five becomes a bullpen contest, where one-run finishes are made.
Picks recap: Under 8 (-105) and Mets Run Line +1.5 (-135).
MLB Mets vs. Yankees FAQ: Saturday September 12, 2026
What time does the New York Mets vs. New York Yankees game start?
First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 12, 2026, at Yankee Stadium. This is the middle game of a three-game Subway Series set, and it is an afternoon start rather than the usual evening slot. Sunday’s finale also begins at 1:35 p.m. ET.
What channel is the New York Mets vs. New York Yankees game on?
The game airs on YES Network for Yankees viewers and on SNY for Mets viewers. Those are the two clubs’ regional rights holders in the New York market, and each carries the same contest with its own broadcast team. Out-of-market viewers can stream it through the league’s package.
Who is pitching for the New York Yankees today?
Gerrit Cole is the listed starter for the Yankees, per the club’s official probable pitchers page. The right-hander is 8-8 with a 3.41 ERA over 19 starts and 111 innings this season. Rookie left-hander Zac Thornton, 3-5 with a 3.53 ERA, goes for the Mets.
Who won the last meeting between the New York Mets and New York Yankees?
The Yankees won the series opener 6-4 on Friday, September 11, 2026, at Yankee Stadium. Carlos Rodon worked 6.1 innings for the home side. Mets starter Nolan McLean was charged with five earned runs on 10 hits across five innings, and a late Mets rally fell short.
Where do the New York Mets and New York Yankees stand in their divisions?
The Yankees are 85-62 and sit second in the American League East, three games behind Tampa Bay. The Mets are 68-79 and sit fourth in the National League East, 17.5 games behind Atlanta. Both clubs are 7-3 across their last 10 games despite that gap.