The New York Liberty visit the Minnesota Lynx on Saturday afternoon with a fresh grudge attached. Eight days ago in Brooklyn, New York handed Minnesota one of its worst nights of the season. Now the Lynx get them back at Target Center, and the market has pushed this number in Minnesota’s direction. The public is not following. That gap between the money and the tickets shapes both of our picks below.
Last Updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Target Center, Minneapolis MN |
| When | Saturday, July 11 – 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Game Preview
Minnesota enters at 16-6, tied with Las Vegas for the second-best record in the league. The Lynx have done it with the most complete profile in the WNBA. They score 90.0 points per game and surrender just 80.7. That plus-9.3 nightly differential is the largest margin any team is carrying right now, per ESPN’s 2026 standings. No other team is above plus-5.8.
What makes it remarkable is who has not played. Napheesa Collier still has not appeared in a game this season after offseason surgery on both ankles. The Lynx announced her return to full practice on July 1, but she has not been cleared for game action and no debut date is set. Cheryl Reeve has built this team around Natasha Howard, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams instead.
New York sits at 13-9. The Liberty are still a top-four defense at 83.8 points allowed, and Breanna Stewart is producing at an All-WNBA level. However, the roster is thin. Satou Sabally has been in concussion protocol and has missed multiple games. Leonie Fiebich has been managing left foot soreness and was questionable for New York’s most recent outing, a loss to Dallas.
The head-to-head is fresh. On July 3 in Brooklyn, New York won 99-86 behind 36 points from Stewart, with Jonquel Jones adding 14 points and 15 rebounds. All five Liberty starters reached double figures and Minnesota shot 40 percent. That result is the strongest argument for the visitors. The market has decided it was an outlier rather than a template.
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | +5.5 (-115) | +170 | U 172.5 (-110) |
| Lynx | -5.5 (-105) | -200 | O 172.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, July 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Liberty | 72% | 28% | Lynx |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Liberty vs. Lynx Best Bet — Will Minnesota Avenge Their Loss to Liberty?
This game opened with Minnesota laying 3.5. It now sits at 5.5. That is a full two-point move toward the home team, and it happened while 72 percent of spread tickets were being written on New York. Lines do not usually move against that much public volume unless larger, more disciplined money is arriving on the other side. Reverse line movement is not a crystal ball, but it is a signal worth respecting.
The underlying numbers support the direction of the move. Minnesota’s plus-9.3 scoring differential is more than double New York’s plus-4.0. Apply a standard home-court adjustment to that gap and the projected Minnesota margin lands in the seven-to-eight-point range, north of the posted number. The Lynx are also the healthier team relative to expectation. They have played without Collier all season, so nothing about Saturday’s rotation is new to them. New York is missing pieces it planned on.
The case against Minnesota is not subtle. The Lynx are only 6-4 at Target Center this year while going 10-2 on the road, an odd split that argues against upgrading them at home. New York also just beat this exact team by 13, and Stewart is capable of dragging the Liberty to a cover by herself. Still, the Lynx have the better defense, the better differential and the money behind them. That combination usually wins the argument.
The Pick: Lynx -5.5 (-105)
Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction — Is 172.5 Too Low Based on Recent Performance?
The total opened at 172.5 and has not moved a half point. That stability is itself informative. Minnesota allows 80.7 points per game and New York allows 83.8, the second- and fourth-stingiest marks in the league. Neither team pushes tempo. The Lynx rank eighth in possessions per game and the Liberty rank 13th of 15. Blend each team’s scoring average with what its opponent allows and the projection lands beneath the posted number.
The counterargument sits in plain sight. These two combined for 185 points in Brooklyn on July 3, sailing past a similar number. Minnesota scores 90.0 a night, New York scores 87.8, and both offenses have enough shooting to turn a slow game into a shootout in a single quarter. The projection is close, so this is a lean rather than a strong edge.
The Pick: Under 172.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
One more wrinkle in the splits is worth flagging. While 72 percent of spread tickets are on New York, 83 percent of moneyline tickets are on Minnesota. The crowd wants the Lynx to win but does not want to lay the points. That pattern is common after a favorite gets beaten by 13 in the most recent meeting, and it tells you the perception of Minnesota has not collapsed.
For anyone who shares the read on Minnesota but cannot stomach the six-point key number, the moneyline is the cleaner expression of the same opinion. You give up a chunk of price at -200, and a one-point Lynx win pays the same as a 20-point one. The trade is margin risk for a wider path to cashing. Neither approach is free, and if Stewart goes for 35 again, both are in trouble. If you want more of our reads on this slate, see our Lynx vs Sun prediction from July 8 and our latest WNBA picks coverage.
Bonus Pick: Lynx moneyline (-200)
All Picks: Lynx -5.5 (-105) | Under 172.5 (-110) | Lynx moneyline (-200)
WNBA Liberty vs. Lynx July 11, 2026 Prediction FAQ
What time does the New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx game start?
Tip-off is set for 1:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 11, 2026, at Target Center in Minneapolis.
What channel is the New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx game on?
The game is scheduled for national broadcast on ABC.
Who is favored in the New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx game?
Minnesota is favored. The Lynx are laying 5.5 points at -105 and sit at -200 on the moneyline, while New York is +5.5 (-115) and +170 to win outright.
Who won the last meeting between the Liberty and the Lynx?
New York won 99-86 in Brooklyn on July 3, 2026. Breanna Stewart scored 36 points and Jonquel Jones posted 14 points and 15 rebounds.
Is Napheesa Collier playing for the Lynx?
Collier has not appeared in a game this season while recovering from surgery on both ankles. She returned to full practice on July 1 and continues to progress, but she has not been cleared for game action and Minnesota has not announced a debut date.