Last Updated on July 31, 2025 10:32 pm by Anthony Rome
The New York Liberty (17‑9) travel to Mohegan Sun Arena to take on the struggling Connecticut Sun (4‑21) at 7:30 pm EST. New York claimed a dominant 100‑52 win in their first meeting back on June 1 and currently hold a 1‑0 edge in the season series. According to ESPN Analytics, New York enters as heavy favorites with an implied win probability of 84.9% and the Liberty are about −10.5-point favorites on the spread. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Liberty vs. Sun matchup?
Liberty vs. Sun WNBA Event Info
New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun
7:30 p.m. ET, Friday, August 1, 2025
Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
TV: ION
Liberty vs. Sun Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Liberty are 10.5-point road favorites to beat the Sun. The total, meanwhile, sits at 170 points.
Team Overviews
New York Liberty
The Liberty continue to rank among the WNBA’s elite. They average 87.9 PPG while limiting opponents to 81.4 PPG, shooting 45.5% from the field and 35.4% from three-point range. They also lead the league at the free throw line (83.2%) and contribute about 34.4 rebounds and 21.9 assists per game. Sabrina Ionescu leads the squad with roughly 19.7 PPG, 5.7 APG, and stellar free-throw accuracy approaching 92.2%. Defense has been solid as well—their opponents shoot just 42.1% from the field and 32.5% from deep, ranks 8th in points allowed per game. New York enters off a tough road loss in Minnesota but has rebounded well recently.
Connecticut Sun
Meanwhile, the Sun are enduring a miserable season under new coach Rachid Meziane. They sit at the bottom of the league in both record and advanced metrics, with 4.2 rebounds per game and just 74.6 PPG offensively while allowing 88.0 PPG—both near the bottom of the league. Tina Charles, back in Connecticut, leads the team with 16.1 PPG and 5.8 RPG, but beyond her there’s little consistent production. The Sun also rank worst in rebounding and defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 47% overall and 34.9% from three. They earned only one recent win—an upset over Indiana—but have otherwise been thoroughly outclassed.
Matchup Storylines
Complete vs. Collapse: New York is built with offensive balance, defensive discipline, and veteran poise; Connecticut is still trying to piece together an identity with an entirely new rotation.
Rebounds & Transition: Liberty crash the glass at a higher rate, creating second-chance points. Conversely, the Sun struggle to secure defensive boards, inviting New York to generate easy opportunities.
Confidence gap: New York is a top-2 team in both net rating and execution; Connecticut’s -17.1 net rating reflects a team still trying to find any traction.
Liberty vs. Sun Prediction
With New York’s dominance in nearly every statistical category and the previous blowout win earlier in the season, the Liberty should deliver another lopsided performance. Betting trends strongly favor New York to cover the ~10.5-point spread, and totals market suggests going under roughly 170.5 points due to Connecticut’s inefficiency.
Predicted Final Score: Liberty 96, Sun 78
Expect New York to control the game through defensive turnovers, rebounding, and efficient execution. The Sun will struggle to keep pace on both ends.
Liberty vs. Sun Prediction: NEW YORK LIBERTY -10.5