This matchup marks a showdown between two elite teams — the defending-champion New York Liberty (17–8) and the upstart Minnesota Lynx (22–5), who narrowly lost last season’s Finals in a dramatic overtime Game 5. Now, both are gunning for hardware again, and this is their first meeting of the year. What’s the smart bet in tonight’s Liberty vs. Lynx matchup?
Liberty vs. Lynx Game Outlook
New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx
8:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, July 30, 2025
College Park Center, Arlington, TX
TV: ESPN
Liberty vs. Lynx Betting Odds
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Lynx are 8-point home favorites to knock off the Liberty. As for the betting total, meanwhile, the number currently sits at 164.5.
Minnesota Lynx
The Lynx lead the league in key statistical categories—field goals, assists, blocks, steals—and remain the stingiest defensive team in the WNBA. All-Star forward Napheesa Collier has been unstoppable, posting about 23.5 PPG, ranking first in the league, and anchoring Minnesota’s elite defense. Supported by playmakers Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, and the steady Alanna Smith, Minnesota’s balanced attack and championship experience position them as a formidable home favorite.
New York Liberty
The reigning champions bring firepower across the board too. Breanna Stewart still leads the unit with nearly 20 PPG, 8–9 RPG, and elite defensive presence, while Sabrina Ionescu runs the offense at elite levels (around 6 APG) and Jonquel Jones consistently delivers inside scoring and rebounds. With depth via Natasha Cloud and Nyara Sabally, New York boasts the league’s top offense at over 87 PPG.
Matchup Trends & Betting Dynamics
Form & ATS: The Lynx are 4–1 in their last 5 games and 16–11 against the spread on the season, while the Liberty have been underdogs three times and lost all three SU.
Scoring Outlook: Minnesota averages 85.9 PPG, exceeding what New York allows, while the Liberty score 87.7 PPG, well above Minnesota’s typical concession of 75.4—suggesting a high-scoring tilt.
Head-to-Head: While previous meetings have tended to favor New York, Minnesota won 6 of the last 10 matchups, including several decisive victories by nearly 9 points on average.
Key Storylines
Will Collier continue her MVP-caliber pace to dominate the paint and defensively disrupt the Liberty?
Can New York’s trio of Stewart, Ionescu, and Jones orchestrate efficient ball movement to overcome Minnesota’s defensive discipline?
With Minnesota’s dominant home record and New York’s explosive offense, which plays and adjustments will matter most late in the game?
Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction
This tipped battle features contrasting styles: Minnesota’s defensive tenacity and all-team execution versus New York’s high-octane offense and championship composure. While the Liberty score at will and boast terrific depth, Minnesota’s home stability, Collier’s impact, and clutch confidence give them the edge.
Prediction: Lynx prevail, likely covering the –8 spread. Expect a fast-paced contest, with both teams pushing tempo, Collier earning key stops, and smart late-game execution sealing the win.
Liberty vs. Lynx WNBA Prediction: MINNESOTA LYNX -8