Fever vs. Lynx WNBA Prediction: Will Minnesota cash as home favorite?

Mercury vs Lynx Game 2 prediction Mercury vs Lynx Game 2 prediction

The Commissioner’s Cup Final between the Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx tips off Tuesday, July 1, 2025, at the Target Center. With Minnesota laying 6.5 points and the total sitting at 165.5, what’s the best bet in tonight’s Fever vs. Lynx matchup?

Fever vs. Lynx WNBA Event Info

Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx

8:00 p.m. ET, Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

TV: Prime Video

Fever vs. Lynx Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Lynx are 6.5-point home favorites to beat the Fever. The total, meanwhile, sits at 165.5 points.

Stakes & Context

The game determines the 2025 Commissioner’s Cup champion, with a $500,000 prize pool. Each player on the winning team earns at least $5,000.

Minnesota (14‑2) sits atop the WNBA with the best record in the West. Indiana (8‑8) ranks third in the East.

Lineups & Key Players

Indiana Fever (Eastern Cup champs, 4–1 Cup record)

Starters: Caitlin Clark (G), Kelsey Mitchell (G), Lexie Hull (F), Natasha Howard (F), Aliyah Boston (C).

Clark: Day‑to‑day with a groin issue; averages ~18 ppg, 8 apg. Returned in June with strong performances.

Boston: Feasting lately—15.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg, cleared 15.5‑point prop 4 of her last 5 games.

Howard: Veteran’s backstory adds emotional weight; returning after high-profile trade & stint with the Lynx.

Minnesota Lynx (Western Cup champs, 5–1 Cup record)

Starters: Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, Napheesa Collier, Bridget Carleton, Alanna Smith.

Collier: WNBA’s top scorer (24.4 ppg), elite defender. Just named All‑Star captain.

Team defense: Leads league with 74.1 ppg allowed, top in defensive rating (93.9).

Ball movement: Top in assists (~24 apg); deliberate style often controls tempo.

Matchup Breakdown

Clark vs. Lynx defense

If Clark suits up, Indiana gains major spark. But Minnesota throttles transition—leads league in points off turnovers (18.3).

Post strength battle

Collier vs. Boston/Howard—both robust but Collier operates at MVP-caliber. Boston’s form is encouraging.

Bench & experience

Minnesota has depth and Cup experience. Indiana’s roster has improved but still chasing consistency.

Game tempo & scoring

Early analysis favors a lower-scoring, defense-heavy Cup final—Under lean.

Fever vs. Lynx Prediction

Minnesota’s top-end talent (Collier/McBride/Williams), elite defense, and Cup pedigree give them the edge. If Clark plays, Indiana is more dangerous; without, their chances dip. But even with her, closing out at Minnesota remains a tall ask.

Fever vs. Lynx Prediction: MINNESOTA LYNX -6.5