Fever vs. Liberty WNBA Prediction: Is betting total set too low?

Mystics vs. Liberty Mystics vs. Liberty

Last Updated on July 15, 2025 10:53 pm by Anthony Rome

As the WNBA barrels toward the All-Star break, the Indiana Fever (11–10) visit the reigning champion New York Liberty (14–6) in a pivotal Eastern Conference clash. The Fever enter on the heels of a road win against the Sun, while New York comes off a comeback victory over Atlanta, stringing together two straight wins. For the Liberty, it’s a chance to maintain their dominance before key veterans return; for Indiana, they see an opportunity to continue building momentum and narrow the gap in the standings. What’s the best bet in tonight’s Fever vs. Liberty matchup?

Fever vs. Liberty WNBA Event Info

Indiana Fever at New York Liberty

7:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

TV: CBSSN

Fever vs. Liberty Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Liberty are 9-point home favorites to beat the Fever. The total, meanwhile, sits at 165.5 points.

Key Matchups & Storylines

1. Caitlin Clark’s Continued Impact

Clark has been sensational this season—averaging a near double-double (16.7 PPG, 9.0 APG) and asserting herself as Indiana’s offensive engine. Now returning to full strength, she’ll test New York’s perimeter defense and energize the Fever’s quick-paced attack.

2. Liberty Adjusting Without Jonquel Jones

New York is playing without 2024 Finals MVP Jonquel Jones, who remains sidelined with an ankle injury and isn’t expected back until after the break. Still, Breanna Stewart (19.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and Sabrina Ionescu (18.8 PPG) continue to anchor a top-tier offense.

3. Defensive Identity & Rebounding Battle

Indiana has elevated their defense this season, adding veteran defenders like Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner to alter the dynamic. Meanwhile, the Liberty are strong on both ends—ranking elite in scoring (~86 PPG), rebounding, and FG%.

Team Comparison

Stat       Fever    Liberty

Record 11–10   14–6

PPG      ~84.5    ~86.3

FG% / 3PT%      45.1% / 33.8%   46.0% / 34.6%

Assists per Game          19.7      21.2

Rebounds         ~34.0 RPG        ~34.9 RPG

Pace     77.9 (6th fastest)           79.4 (fastest)

Turnovers        ~12.8    ~12.6

X‑Factors

Clark vs. Ionescu Playmaking Duel: Clark’s ability to direct Indiana’s offense will be pitted against Ionescu’s elite creation for New York—a key matchup that could shape tempo and rhythm.

Bigs Battle in the Paint: With Jones out, the Liberty rely on Stewart and Nyara Sabally—whose bench production was praised in overtime—but Indiana counters with 7.9 RPG from Aliyah Boston.

Turnover Margin & Fast Breaks: Both teams are strong defensively and under the league average in turnovers; whoever wins the turnover battle could control transition possessions—potentially deciding the game.

Fever vs. Liberty Prediction

This should be a tightly contested, high-energy battle. New York’s depth and offensive firepower still make them favorites, but Indiana’s defensive improvement and Clark’s ascendancy mean this isn’t a layup. Expect a fast-paced affair with physical play inside.

Fever vs. Liberty Prediction: OVER 165.5