The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars open the NFL London Games with a line that has moved very little over months. Jacksonville sits at -2.5 (-110) after opening as a 1.5-point road underdog back in June, a four-point swing driven by a 4-1 start. Houston arrives at 1-4 and takes +2.5 (-110) with the total parked at 41.5. That is a short number for a four-game gap in the standings, and the gap between what the records say and what the market says is where our two picks live.
Last Updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Wembley Stadium, London, England |
| When | Sunday, October 18 – 9:30 AM ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview
Jacksonville leads the AFC South at 4-1 and has built that record on defense. The Jaguars allow a league-best 63.8 rushing yards per game and 14.0 points per game, second in the NFL. Their run of wins includes a 35-6 handling of New England, a 22-17 road win at Cincinnati, and a last-second 19-17 win over Philadelphia in London last week. The lone blemish is a 20-13 loss at Denver in Week 2.
Houston is 1-4 after beating Tennessee in Week 5. C.J. Stroud starts under center and has been efficient rather than explosive, while Trevor Lawrence takes the snaps for Jacksonville under second-year head coach Liam Coen. The injury news cuts both ways. Houston is without running back David Montgomery (groin), wide receiver Tank Dell (knee), and safety Jalen Pitre (shoulder), all officially listed as Out. Jacksonville is down cornerback Montaric Brown (hamstring) and long snapper Ross Matiscik (shoulder), and left tackle Anton Harrison is on injured reserve after knee surgery, with Walker Little making his first start of the season in his place.
One Houston addition changes the shape of this offense. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., acquired by trade, makes his Texans debut on Sunday. He joins Nico Collins, who has topped 100 receiving yards in each of his last five games against Jacksonville. Will Anderson Jr. leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks. The teams last met on November 9, 2025, when Houston rallied from 19 down in the fourth quarter to win 36-29.
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | +2.5 (-110) | +120 | U 41.5 (-110) |
| Jaguars | -2.5 (-110) | -140 | O 41.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, October 18, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Texans | 46% | 54% | Jaguars |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction — Why Is This Number So Short?
Start with what the market is telling us. A 4-1 division leader hosting a 1-4 team should, on reputation alone, be laying far more than 2.5 points. Instead the spread sits just inside the key number of 3, and the public split is nearly even at 54 percent on Jacksonville. The four-point move off the June opener is real, but the destination is still a coin-flip number.
The structural case for Houston is the pass rush against a rebuilt offensive line. Anderson pairs with Danielle Hunter, and they will attack a left side manned by Little in his first start. Jacksonville’s pass defense is the soft spot in an otherwise excellent unit, surrendering 266.2 yards per game — 30th in the league, per defensive rankings through Week 5. Collins has punished this opponent for five straight games, and Harrison Jr. gives Stroud a second large target. Houston has also taken three of the last four meetings.
The case against Houston starts on the ground. Jacksonville’s run defense is the best in football, and losing Montgomery pushes Woody Marks into the lead role. If Houston cannot run, Stroud faces predictable third downs against a defense allowing 14 points per game with a plus-five turnover margin. Jacksonville has won 12 of its last 13 regular-season games. Backing the road side means trusting that Houston’s front seven keeps this within a field goal, not that Houston is the better team. We think the half-point cushion plus the pass-rush edge is worth the price.
The Pick: Texans +2.5 (-110)
Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction — Can Either Offense Push the Number?
The total opened at 41.5 and has not budged, which is unusual for a number that low. Recent results support it. Unders are 4-1 in Jacksonville’s games and 3-2 in Houston’s, and the Jaguars were held to 19, 22, and 13 points in three of five outings. Houston’s ground game is the phase most likely to stall and burn clock without producing points. A 9:30 AM ET kickoff also rarely favors crisp offensive execution.
The other side has a real argument. Jacksonville’s 30th-ranked pass defense is a genuine leak, and if Houston abandons the run early, volume passing to Collins and Harrison Jr. can produce points in a hurry. Parker Washington went for 124 yards and two scores last week, so the Jaguars can answer quickly. Still, 41.5 asks for roughly three touchdowns and a field goal combined between two defenses ranked first and third against the run. The number feels defensible on the low side rather than cheap.
The Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
There is a secondary angle on the Houston moneyline. At +120, the Texans need roughly a 45 percent win probability to break even, and a game priced at 2.5 points implies something close to that. The tradeoff is clear: the moneyline forfeits the half-point cushion. If this lands on a 3-point Jacksonville win, the spread cashes and the moneyline does not. We prefer the spread, but the outright price is live for bettors who think Houston’s pass rush produces a short-field score.
Bonus Angle: Texans moneyline +120
For wider context on what a Houston win would mean in the AFC race, see our NFL Playoff Picture: Key Storylines Heading Into Week 6 breakdown, and our latest NFL picks coverage for the rest of the slate.
To recap all three positions in this article: Texans +2.5 (-110) on the side, Under 41.5 (-110) on the total, and Texans moneyline +120 as the bonus angle.
NFL Texans vs. Jaguars FAQ: Sunday October 18, 2026
What time does the Texans vs. Jaguars game start?
Kickoff is 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 18, 2026, which is 2:30 PM local time in London. The early window is standard for the NFL London Games, giving the matchup the first slot of the Week 6 Sunday schedule.
What channel is the Texans vs. Jaguars game on?
The game airs nationally on NFL Network. It is also available through NFL+, the league’s own subscription service, and local affiliate coverage carries the broadcast in both the Houston and Jacksonville markets.
Where are the Texans and Jaguars playing?
The game is at Wembley Stadium in London, England. Jacksonville is the designated home team and gives up a home date to play abroad, a routine part of the franchise’s schedule. It is the second time these two teams have met at Wembley.
Who won the last meeting between the Texans and Jaguars?
Houston won the most recent meeting 36-29 on November 9, 2025, erasing a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit. The teams also met earlier that season in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars won 17-10. Houston has taken three of the last four games in the series.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Texans and Jaguars?
C.J. Stroud starts for Houston and Trevor Lawrence starts for Jacksonville. Neither quarterback carries an injury designation on this week’s report. Lawrence threw for a season-high 331 yards in last week’s win over Philadelphia in London.