The Seattle Seahawks visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football with both teams sitting at 3-2. The defending Super Bowl champions are 2.5-point road favorites, and the total sits at 40.5 after opening higher. Seattle has scored at least 29 points in four straight games, yet turnovers have cost it two losses. Denver has won three of its last four but plays without two of its best defensive backs. Below, we break down the quarterbacks, the market and the injury report before landing on our Seahawks vs. Broncos prediction and best bets.
Last Updated: October 15, 2026
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos — Game Info
| Where | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Colorado |
| When | October 15 – 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos Betting Preview
The quarterback matchup shapes this game more than anything else. Sam Darnold starts for Seattle, while backup Drew Lock carries no designation despite a forearm issue that limited him in practice. Darnold hurt his glute in the season opener and has started the last three games since returning. In that stretch, he has thrown five interceptions, and Seattle went 1-2. Offensive coordinator Brian Fleury said this week that the plan is to lean on familiar concepts so Darnold can make faster decisions.
Bo Nix has started all five games for Denver, and the offense has struggled to stretch the field. Denver ranks 26th in scoring at 19.4 points per game. Next Gen Stats data cited by NFL.com shows Nix averaging the fewest air yards per attempt among qualified passers. That is a tough profile against a Seattle defense that allows the fewest yards per play in the league.
Seattle’s offense has topped 29 points in four straight games. However, its defense has allowed 29.3 points per game over the last three. Turnovers explain much of that slide. The Seahawks have given the ball away eight times in three weeks, including four in Sunday’s 32-29 home loss to San Francisco. Denver, meanwhile, won 23-17 at the Chargers and has held its last four opponents to 20 points per game. The schedule spot is even for both sides. Each team played Sunday, so both are on a short week. Seattle travels after a home game, while Denver returns home from Los Angeles.
The injury report tilts toward Seattle’s passing game. Denver ruled out cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga with ankle injuries, and cornerback Riley Moss is questionable with a rib injury. Seattle ruled out linebackers Drake Thomas and Chazz Surratt along with running back Zach Charbonnet, and running back Jadarian Price is on injured reserve. Jaxon Smith-Njigba practiced fully Wednesday after an ankle issue and carries no designation.
Both teams trail unbeaten division leaders, with Seattle chasing the 5-0 49ers and Denver sitting behind Kansas City. Seattle has won the last two meetings, including a 26-20 home win in September 2024. In the market, the spread has held at Seattle -2.5 since opening, while the total has dropped from 42.5 to 40.5. Seattle’s moneyline has eased slightly from -150 to -145 with 60% of spread tickets on the Seahawks. That move is too small to read as a strong signal. Our Seahawks vs. Broncos odds breakdown covers the full market picture.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | -2.5 (-115) | -145 | O 40.5 (-115) |
| Broncos | +2.5 (-105) | +125 | U 40.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of October 15, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Seahawks | 60% | 40% | Broncos |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction — Can Bo Nix Beat Seattle’s Pass Rush Downfield?
Denver’s offense has not been built to win shootouts this season. Four of the Broncos’ five games have stayed under the total, and their scoring output ranks near the bottom of the league. Their five games have averaged 41.6 combined points, and only the 30-26 win over the Rams went above 41. Nix also completes just 35.4% of his passes under pressure, per Next Gen Stats. Seattle owns the league’s second-highest pressure rate, so Denver’s drives could stall early and often.
Seattle’s side of the equation points to a slower game than its recent scores suggest. The coaching staff is steering Darnold toward quicker, more familiar throws to cut down on giveaways. Fewer turnovers mean fewer short fields, and short fields drove San Francisco’s scoring on Sunday. Denver’s defense has also tightened, allowing no more than 26 points in any game since Week 1. The market agrees with this read, having moved two full points since the open and through the key number of 41.
The risk is real. Seattle has topped 29 points in four straight games, and its last three games have all gone over. Denver is also without Surtain and Hufanga, which leaves its secondary thin against an elite receiver. A defensive score or a fumble in the red zone could swing the result on one play. Still, the break-even rate at this price is roughly 51%, and the matchup supports a better read than that.
The Pick: Under 40.5 (-105)
Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction — Who Covers Jaxon Smith-Njigba With Surtain Sidelined?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the engine of Seattle’s offense. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year has 583 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and he accounts for 49% of the team’s receiving yards. He has cleared 100 yards in four of five games, including 102 against the 49ers while playing through the ankle injury. Now he faces a Denver secondary without its top cornerback and a key safety, with Moss also questionable.
There are reasons for caution. Smith-Njigba managed 76 yards against the Chargers, and Seattle’s quicker-throw plan could spread targets around. On the other hand, Seattle’s backfield is thin with Charbonnet and Price unavailable. That keeps the passing game central to the plan. A low-scoring game with a Seattle lead could also shrink his volume late. One correlation note matters here. Denver’s secondary injuries are the main risk to our first pick and the main support for this one. The two plays are not fully independent. At a plus price, the break-even rate sits near 49%.
The Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ Receiving Yards (+105)
Our Final Word on Seahawks vs. Broncos
This sets up as a game where Seattle’s defense controls the tempo and Smith-Njigba carries the offense. Denver’s best path is to protect Nix, lean on its home field and win the turnover battle. All three Broncos wins this season came by one score, so they rarely go away quietly. The Seahawks have the edge on paper, but giveaways decided both of their losses.
Our top play is the Under 40.5 at -105, driven by Denver’s limited offense against the league’s stingiest yards-per-play defense. Our second play is Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards at +105, since Denver’s top cornerback and a key safety are both out.
NFL Seahawks vs. Broncos FAQ: October 15, 2026
What time does the Seahawks vs. Broncos game start?
The Seahawks and Broncos kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 15, 2026. The game is at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, which is 6:15 p.m. local time. Both teams enter the Week 6 matchup with 3-2 records after playing on Sunday, so each side is working on a short week.
How can I stream the Seahawks vs. Broncos game?
You can stream the Seahawks vs. Broncos game on Prime Video, which holds the national broadcast for this Thursday matchup. Coverage begins ahead of the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. It is the first meeting between the teams since the 2024 season opener.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Seahawks?
Sam Darnold is starting at quarterback for the Seahawks against the Broncos. He has started the last three games since returning from a glute injury suffered in the opener. Backup Drew Lock was limited in practice with a forearm issue but carries no injury designation for Thursday’s game in Denver.
Is Patrick Surtain II playing against the Seahawks?
No, Patrick Surtain II is not playing against the Seahawks. Denver ruled the cornerback out with an ankle injury after he missed every practice this week. Safety Talanoa Hufanga is also out with an ankle injury, and cornerback Riley Moss is listed as questionable with a rib injury.
Where do the Seahawks and Broncos stand in their divisions?
Both teams sit second in their divisions at 3-2 entering Thursday. Seattle trails the undefeated San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West after losing to them 32-29 on Sunday. Denver sits behind the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West after beating the Chargers 23-17 last week.
Who won the last meeting between the Seahawks and Broncos?
The Seahawks won the last meeting 26-20 over the Broncos on September 8, 2024, at Lumen Field in Seattle. That was the season opener for both teams. Seattle has won the last two matchups in the series, with a 17-16 win at home in September 2022 coming before that.