This Packers vs Patriots prediction breaks down a meeting of two 5-3 teams on Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium. New England is a 3-point favorite after opening at 2.5, and the total has fallen from 47.5 to 44.5 since the market opened. That drop is the loudest signal on the board. Meanwhile, the quarterback duel between Jordan Love and Drake Maye arrives with both offenses missing key pieces. Two picks follow, and the strongest one comes from where the money has pushed this number hardest.
Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots — Game Info
| Where | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough Massachusetts |
| When | November 8 – 4:25 PM ET |
| TV | FOX |
Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots Betting Preview
Start with the quarterbacks, because neither carries an injury designation this week. Love leads the NFL with 2,246 passing yards and has thrown 16 touchdowns against six interceptions. Maye counters with 1,983 yards, 15 touchdowns and eight picks. Both are healthy, so the line reflects the supporting casts rather than a quarterback question.
Green Bay has won four of its last five. The only loss was a 20-17 decision at Detroit. The Packers last played on Thursday, October 29, beating Carolina 27-19, so they arrive with 10 days of rest. Still, they sit fourth in a crowded NFC North. The defense has carried them, allowing 14.6 points per game over that five-game run. Green Bay has forced 15 takeaways, second-most in the league, and grades as a top-10 defense by EPA. In contrast, the ground game is the worst in football at 2.9 yards per carry.
The Packers are also thin. Micah Parsons remains out with a knee injury. Linebacker Zaire Franklin, tight end Josh Whyle and interior linemen Sean Rhyan and Travis Glover are all ruled out. Cornerback Keisean Nixon is questionable with a groin injury, though he returned to practice Friday.
New England is 5-3, unbeaten at home, and second in the AFC East behind Buffalo. The Patriots won 24-19 at Miami last week after a 30-24 loss at Chicago. Like Green Bay, New England has gone 4-1 over its last five after a 1-2 start. Their offense has averaged 29.6 points per game across the last five. However, the injury report cuts into that firepower. A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson are ruled out, and tight end Hunter Henry is questionable with a foot injury. Henry leads the team with 29 catches. Safety Kevin Byard III and cornerback Carlton Davis III are also questionable.
Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | +3.0 (+100) | +150 | O 44.5 (-108) |
| Patriots | -3.0 (-120) | -175 | U 44.5 (-112) |
Odds accurate as of November 8, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NFL Odds – Futures – Props
Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Packers | 72% | 28% | Patriots |
See the latest NFL Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Packers vs. Patriots Prediction — Whose Five-Game Totals Streak Breaks?
Something has to give. Green Bay has gone under in each of its last five games and is 2-6 to the under on the season. New England has gone over in each of its last five. The market has picked a side, and it has done so loudly. This total opened at 47.5 and now sits at 44.5. A three-point drop in an NFL total is a big move. This one passed through 47 and 45, numbers where combined scores tend to cluster.
The direction matters more than the size. RotoWire’s tracking this week showed roughly two-thirds of bets on the over. Yet the number kept falling. That is reverse line movement, the footprint of larger money on the less popular side. Moreover, it lines up with the matchup. Green Bay’s defense has been stingy for a month, and its offense cannot run the ball. New England is without Brown and Henderson, and Henry, Maye’s most reliable target, is less than full speed at best. The Packers are also missing two interior linemen and a tight end, which narrows what Love can do against pressure.
The case against is real. The Patriots have scored 29.6 points per game over the last five, and Love leads the league in passing yards. A couple of turnovers on short fields could blow through this number quickly. The price has also already moved. The value sat at 47.5, not here, and the current price asks for a 52.8% hit rate. Still, the research and the market point the same way, and that agreement is the strongest signal in this game.
The Pick: Under 44.5 (-112)
Packers vs. Patriots Prediction — What Does Henderson’s Absence Change for New England?
With Henderson out, the backfield runs through Rhamondre Stevenson. He leads the team with 367 rushing yards. Last week at Miami, he handled 19 carries, his heaviest load in weeks. Local reporting from MassLive points to another expanded workload against Green Bay. Corey Kiner has filled a change-of-pace role behind him. Meanwhile, the Patriots are favored, and a team protecting a lead leans on its lead back late. Green Bay’s own inability to run also tends to shorten its drives, which hands New England more possessions.
The risk is game script. In the loss at Chicago, Stevenson logged only six carries as New England chased points. Before last week, he rarely topped 14 carries. If Green Bay leads early, this number becomes harder to reach. The price requires about 53.5%. New England’s defense also matters here, because short Green Bay drives mean more Patriots snaps. The Packers have averaged just 60.6 rushing yards per game, so they rarely sustain long, clock-eating possessions. Note that this read shares an input with the under, since both lean on a slower, ground-based game from New England.
The Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson 15+ Rush Attempts (-115)
Our Final Word on Packers vs. Patriots
The spread tells a similar story. About 72% of spread tickets sit on Green Bay, yet New England moved from 2.5 to a juiced 3. That is another reverse move, this time toward the home side. On the other hand, the Packers have covered each of their last five and bring the rest edge. The moneyline adds a wrinkle. Roughly 63% of moneyline tickets back New England, and the Patriots shortened from -147 at the open to -175. That move runs with the public, so it carries little signal on its own. At -175, the price implies about 63.6%. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives New England 56.6%, which suggests the favorite’s price is already full. With the spread now on 3, the cleaner expressions of this game sit elsewhere. For more context, revisit our Patriots vs. Dolphins prediction and our Panthers vs. Packers prediction from last week.
Under 44.5 at -112 is the top play, because a three-point drop against heavy over tickets matches two depleted offenses. Rhamondre Stevenson 15+ Rush Attempts at -115 follows, because Henderson’s absence funnels the backfield work to him.
NFL Packers vs. Patriots FAQ: November 8, 2026
What time does the Packers vs. Patriots game start?
The Packers and Patriots kick off at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, November 8, 2026. It is a late-afternoon national window game in Week 9 of the NFL season. Green Bay arrives on 10 days of rest after its Thursday win over Carolina, while New England played last Sunday at Miami.
What channel is the Packers vs. Patriots game on?
The game airs on FOX. Kevin Burkhardt calls the play-by-play with Tom Brady as the analyst. Erin Andrews and Tom Rinaldi work the sidelines. In the Boston market, the broadcast runs locally on WFXT Channel 25, the area FOX affiliate.
Where are the Packers and Patriots playing?
The Packers and Patriots play at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. New England is unbeaten there this season with a 3-0 home record. Green Bay is 2-2 on the road, with its most recent road game a 20-17 loss at Detroit in late October.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Patriots?
Drake Maye starts at quarterback for the Patriots and carries no injury designation this week. He has thrown for 1,983 yards with 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. He faces Green Bay’s Jordan Love, who leads the NFL with 2,246 passing yards and is also off the injury report.
Where do the Packers and Patriots stand in their divisions?
Both teams are 5-3. The Patriots sit second in the AFC East behind 6-1 Buffalo. The Packers are fourth in the NFC North, trailing Minnesota at 6-1, Chicago at 6-2 and Detroit at 5-2. A win keeps either team firmly in its division race.