Hot off the presses, Monday Night Football picks for both games – where the spreads and totals sit heading into kickoff, the public-betting temperature, our best bets, and a cross-game parlay that ties both matchups together.
Two MNF windows, two different profiles. Buffalo–Atlanta tightened to −3.5 with the total steady at 50 as both offenses lean into tempo indoors. Chicago–Washington pushed to Commanders −5 with the total up to 49.5, reflecting Washington’s rising early-down pass rate and Chicago’s volatile explosive-pass defense. Below: verified lines, public reads, our ATS/total plays, and a correlated cross-game parlay.
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MNF odds snapshot
- Bills @ Falcons — Bills −5 (−110) / Falcons +5 (−110) — Total 50 — Moneyline: BUF −190 / ATL +170
- Bills @ Falcons — Bills −3.5 (−105) / Falcons +3.5 (−115) — Total 50 — Moneyline: BUF −200 / ATL +170
- Bears @ Commanders — Commanders −2.5 (−110) / Bears +2.5 (−110) — Total 43 — Moneyline: WAS −140 / CHI +120
- Bears @ Commanders — Commanders −5 (−115) / Bears +5 (−105) — Total 49.5 — Moneyline: WAS −240 / CHI +200
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Public betting — tickets & handle
- Bills–Falcons: Tickets lean Buffalo at −3.5; handle more balanced with dog interest at +3.5/+4 if it flickers.
- Bears–Commanders: Majority tickets on Washington after the number crossed 3; some buyback shows on Chicago +5/+5.5.
- Key numbers: 3 and 6 for sides; 49/50 on the Bears–Commanders total, 50 for Bills–Falcons.
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MNF best bets — ATS & totals
Bills @ Falcons — Over 50
- Why: Indoors pace + two offenses comfortable in quick game; explosive pass windows vs single-high create chunk chances.
- Buy/Sell: Buy ≤ 50; pass at 51 without OL/WR upgrades.
Bears @ Commanders — Commanders −5
- Why: Washington trench edge and early-down pass rate stress Chicago’s back seven; WR room health supports sustained drives.
- Buy/Sell: Buy ≤ −5; sell at −6 unless injury/inactives tilt strongly toward WAS.
Cross-game parlay (ties both MNF matchups)
- 🟪 Bills–Falcons Over 49.5 (alt)
- 🟪 Commanders −3.5 (alt)
Correlation: Indoor pace boosts BUF–ATL scoring while Washington’s pass rate and WR usage create paths to a one-score cover at reduced juice. Shop alt numbers across books for best price.
Trends & angles that matter
- Alt totals around 49–50 have been key battlegrounds in dome games with two competent QBs.
- When Washington’s early-down pass rate spikes, second-half pace and total plays rise.
- Favorites in the −3.5 to −5.5 band show rapid buyback zones near 6; monitor for late tax.
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