Jets vs Dolphins SGP — MNF Week 4 Picks

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Jets vs Dolphins SGP — Core Build (3–4 Legs)

1) Dolphins Moneyline or -2.5 (alt spread)

• Buy range: ML to -2.5 (aim to keep standard juice ≤ -130).
• Rationale: Explosive plays + home field often pair well with our Over and receiver legs; moreover, it protects correlated edges.

2) Game Total Over (alt band 42.5–48.5)

• Buy range: 42.5–46.5 for conservative stacks; stretch to 47.5–48.5 only if the price remains fair.
• Rationale: If Miami scores early, the Jets are consequently forced into more dropbacks, which typically boosts pace and total play volume.

3) Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards — Over (or WR1 alt 70+)

• Buy range: Main 75.5–89.5; ladder 70+/90+ for small sprinkles.
• Rationale: Hill’s target share and YAC profile benefit from scripted shot plays; furthermore, his spikes correlate directly with Dolphins success.

4) Jets QB Passing Attempts — Over (or WR receptions proxy)

• Buy range: Attempts 30.5–34.5; if unavailable, pivot to WR1 receptions Over 4.5–5.5.
• Rationale: A trailing game state therefore shifts New York toward short-area volume and two-minute drives, raising attempts and catch counts.

Note: If this line drifts significantly near kickoff, rebuild the Jets vs Dolphins SGP around a smaller Dolphins spread or a lower total band while keeping the passing-volume leg intact.

Alternates & Ladder Ideas

• Dolphins Team Total: Over 23.5–24.5 aligns with ML/alt -2.5; it also supports the main Over.
• Receiver Ladder: Hill 90+/100+ small sprinkles; if bracketed, pivot to Waddle 60+ or TE 30+ as market-dependent hedges.
• 1H Angles: Dolphins 1H ML + small full-game Over parlay if the main total sticks at a key number.

Correlation & Risk Management

• Build logic: Dolphins side + Over + Tyreek yards + Jets attempts point to the same game script.
• Actives/inactives (90 mins pre-kick): Verify WR/CB/OL statuses; pivot receiver legs if coverage dictates.
• Bankroll: Keep SGPs to 0.25–0.5u; despite correlation, variance remains high.

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